Unusual weather patterns and problems in the subprime lending marketplace are creating challenges in assessing housing market conditions, but a recovery is likely this year, according to the latest forecast by the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®.

David Lereah, NAR's chief economist, says there's some ambiguity about the current housing market.

"Our goal each month is to fine-tune the forecast based on the latest housing data and a variety of economic indicators, but extraordinary weather variations are skewing home sales and clouding the picture," he says. "Underlying trends point to a housing recovery in 2007, but it will take a couple months for us to get a better handle on it. Existing-home sales are expected to slowly improve from what appears to be the cyclical low last fall, but we think there will be some additional pain in the new home market, which hopefully will start to rise later in the year."

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