Always trying to improve the real estate statistics I present to you, I’ve decided to mine for a new stat – median sale price for the last 90 days. I will present this statistic along with the median sale price for the last month. See the table below for the actual numbers.
What are the benefits of looking at the median sale price for the last 90 days? First, it helps minimize some of the incredible variance that occurs in a small market like South Lake Tahoe. A few high priced sales can throw off the median sale price for a single month here in South Lake. This isn’t so true when looking at sales over a 90-day span. Second, the 90-day statistic centers on a date 45 days in the past. The commonly accepted monthly median sale price centers on a date 15 days in the past. Thus, we get three times more homes, which minimizes variance, and only lose a month when it comes to keeping our stats current. If you are yet to be convinced, look at the table below. For any given month, the median price for the last 90 days, more often than not, produces a better reflection of market conditions than the median price for the month.
For those of you who’ve been following my statistical reports, you’ll notice that I’m no longer calculating median sale price over the last year (a.k.a. 12-month moving median). The statistic just doesn’t make sense to me. It’s good for looking at real estate history; and this is only true if the reader knows the data centers on a date 6 months in the past. Presenting it as current information on a month-to-month basis, however, just doesn’t make any sense.
As for now, we’re still seeing a lot of homes in escrow. We’ve had 60-70 homes in escrow at any given time in the last 2-3 months (the numbers I took from STAoR for the months previous to this one are low somehow.) And we’re finally seeing an increase in homes sold, but it still should be higher. Look at the numbers in 2005 when the market was at its peak. About 65% of escrows closed at that time. Right now we’re seeing about half close. I know a knowledgeable real estate professional who suggested that perhaps we have a bunch of really long escrows sitting out there. This would keep many of our escrows from closing. This isn’t the case, however. When I looked through South Lake Tahoe’s escrows a week ago, only 14 out of the 70 had been in escrow for more than 60 days. I think it’s just that a larger percentage of homes are falling out of escrow than we’ve seen in the past. With a tight lending industry, most buyers probably aren’t qualifying for loans. So if you’re a seller here in South Lake Tahoe, don’t be too upset about your home falling out of escrow. It’s happening to everybody.
I’ll do my best to bring you more statistics in the next week. I was only able to go back to the beginning of 2007 with the 90-day median sale price. I’d also like to give you some foreclosure, condo, and lot numbers. It’s just a very, very busy time for real estate here in South Lake Tahoe.
Month & Year | Listings at Month's End | Escrows at Month's End | Homes Sold | Median $ Over Last 90 Days | Median Sale $ |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
July 2008 | 494 |
64 |
36 |
$396,000 |
$391,500 |
June 2008 | 465 |
57 |
30 |
$392,000 |
$365,000 |
May 2008 | 414 |
47 |
31 |
$396,000 |
$415,000 |
Apr 2008 | 372 |
44 |
21 |
$387,000 |
$379,000 |
Mar 2008 | 361 |
40 |
34 |
$402,500 |
$387,500 |
Feb 2008 | 374 |
52 |
16 |
$445,750 |
$412,500 |
Jan 2008 | 366 |
33 |
16 |
$466,500 |
$428,000 |
Dec 2007 | 382 |
28 |
34 |
$460,000 |
$502,000 |
Nov 2007 | 403 |
42 |
27 |
$415,000 |
$460,000 |
Oct 2007 | 353 |
15 |
39 |
$415,000 |
$425,000 |
Sept 2007 | 442 |
30 |
30 |
$415,000 |
$398,250 |
Aug 2007 | 538 |
45 |
38 |
$437,500 |
$421,500 |
July 2007 | 557 |
40 |
25 |
$440,000 |
$435,000 |
June 2007 | 552 |
33 |
35 |
$435,000 |
$440,000 |
May 2007 | 522 |
47 |
32 |
$465,500 |
$460,000 |
Apr 2007 | 423 |
32 |
28 |
$474,000 |
$392,500 |
Mar 2007 | 359 |
37 |
30 |
$482,500 |
$507,000 |
Feb 2007 | 327 |
25 |
25 |
$485,000 |
$492,500 |
Jan 2007 | 331 |
37 |
21 |
$475,750 |
$395,750 |
Dec 2006 | 339 |
29 |
40 |
$497,500 |
|
Nov 2006 | 362 |
50 |
44 |
$483,500 |
|
Oct 2006 | 411 |
55 |
53 |
$450,000 |
|
Sept 2006 | 463 |
63 |
31 |
$442,000 |
|
Aug 2006 | 548 |
46 |
36 |
$427,500 |
|
July 2006 | 571 |
49 |
37 |
$475,000 |
|
June 2006 | 532 |
51 |
37 |
$480,000 |
|
May 2006 | 424 |
50 |
35 |
$465,000 |
|
Apr 2006 | 302 |
50 |
32 |
$504,000 |
|
Mar 2006 | 264 |
39 |
38 |
$485,140 |
|
Feb 2006 | 262 |
51 |
21 |
$489,000 |
|
Jan 2006 | 256 |
32 |
20 |
$508,750 |
|
Dec 2005 | 198 |
n/a |
31 |
$450,000 |
|
Nov 2005 | 282 |
42 |
53 |
$455,000 |
|
Oct 2005 | 300 |
69 |
55 |
$485,000 |
|
Sept 2005 | 313 |
93 |
63 |
$495,000 |
|
Aug 2005 | 270 |
96 |
79 |
$510,000 |
|
July 2005 | 209 |
110 |
74 |
$484,500 |
|
June 2005 | 188 |
113 |
65 |
$456,000 |
|
May 2005 | 172 |
96 |
57 |
$495,000 |
|
Apr 2005 | 116 |
91 |
72 |
$488,500 |
|
Mar 2005 | 88 |
83 |
50 |
$440,000 |
|
Feb 2005 | 72 |
86 |
34 |
$449,500 |
|
Jan 2005 | 85 |
63 |
47 |
$405,000 |
Price Range |
Active Listings |
Absorption Rate in sales/mo. (% of inventory) | Months Supply of Inventory |
---|---|---|---|
$0 - $300,000 | 33 |
4.92 (14.91%) |
6.7 |
$300,001-$500,000 | 195 |
13.75 (7.05%) |
14.2 |
$500,001 - $750,000 | 131 |
6.08 (4.64%) |
21.5 |
$750,001 - $1,000,000 | 63 |
2.50 (3.97%) |
25.2 |
$1,000,001 - $2,000,000 | 56 |
1.83 (3.27%) |
30.6 |
$2,000,001 and up | 16 |
0.08 (0.52%) |
192 |
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