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Professor Nouriel Roubini, AKA, Dr. Doom... He Told Us So!

Back in January of this year, after attending Inman Connect in NYC, I wrote a post about a panel I had a chance to sit in on, and listened to various real estate specialists and economists debating the current state and future of real estate and the nation's economy. Bear market One of the panelists was Professor Nouriel Roubini who made the following impression on me, " ... Prof. Roubini, on the far right, glowering, dismal, and so dark in his predictions you almost felt like stepping in front of a NYC taxicab, just to put an end to it all."

Well, he's back, even darker and gloomier than before and has earned the nickname "Dr. Doom" in this past weekend's NY Times Magazine section.

According to this article, Roubini had announced at a meeting of the International Monetary Fund that in the coming months the US would be facing a once-in-a-lifetime housing crisis, an oil shock, sharply declining consumer confidence, homeowners defaulting on mortgages and trillions of dollars of mortgage backed securities unraveling world wide. He was dismissed as a pessimist and professional naysayer.

This was in September of 2006!

Unfortunately for all of us he has been vindicated in his dire predictions and has now become a respected, major figure in the current economic debate regarding the financial future of this country.

To read the NJ Times magazine article in its entirety, read "Dr. Doom"

My post, Inman Connect~ The Housing Crisis Debate: Bull vs Bear

Photo: Flickr (AZRainman)

Lisa Ryan, Your Princeton and Montgomery Real Estate Specialist

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Posted by Lisa Ryan~Selling Princeton,West Windsor and Montgomery Township New Jersey on 08/18/2008 07:53 PM

Comments (9)

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9 Comments on Professor Nouriel Roubini, AKA, Dr. Doom... He Told Us So!

AUG

2008

Hey Lisa.... damn, I made those same predictions last year also.... Seriously, I did make some of the same predictions in my 2007 year in review, with 2008 fast approaching. It's one thing to put positive information out there, it's another just to put it out there to make people feel more at ease. I would rather here the truth, now, than later. Thanks for this...

jeff belonger

Jeff~ if you get a chance read the entire article, this guy has been poohpoohed for years, but now he's becoming a media darling. His future predictions are not so good.

Wow, Mr. Roubini's last comments about:

"“Our biggest financiers are China, Russia and the gulf states,” Roubini noted. “These are rivals, not allies.”The United States, Roubini went on, will likely muddle through the crisis but will emerge from it a different nation, with a different place in the world. “Once you run current-account deficits, you depend on the kindness of strangers,” he said, pausing to let out a resigned sigh. “This might be the beginning of the end of the American empire.”

This is a very scary prediction of what could happen, after all, other empires crashed due to "short-term greed" and "digging too deep into the American consumers pockets"...

;>(

Chilling Ann-Marie, isn't it. He was right on target with the snowball effect or domino effect when all aspects of the economy start to sour.

Lisa, some of these guys get it right some of the time but the next time they are off. T. Boone Pickens said oil would go from $85 to $100 a barrrel then it kept going up beyond those figures. No one knows the future for sure.

AUG

2008

According to the NY Times article, Roubini had announced at a September 2006 meeting of the International Monetary Fund that in the coming months the US would be facing a once-in-a-lifetime housing crisis, an oil shock, sharply declining consumer confidence, homeowners defaulting on mortgages and trillions of dollars of mortgage backed securities unraveling world wide, and was dismissed as a pessimist and professional naysayer. The problem is that, if you look at the actual transcript of the meeting, you find that this is mostly revisionist history and much of this is untrue. For example, he predicted falling oil prices, not an oil shock, and he predicted a recession and Fed rate cuts starting in late 2006/early 2007 (i.e., almost immediately), but that didn't happen. As opposed to the spin in the article, the transcript makes him look less than prescient. And oh, nobody dismissed him at that IMF meeting as a professional naysayer, so they just made that up.

If anyone's interested, here's the actual transcript, which shows you how much spin there is in the NY Times article: http://www.businesscycle.com/news/press/1643/