2Q 2008 Northern Nevada Economic and Market Watch Report

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Economic and Market Watch Report 2nd Quarter, 2008 *Click on a County to view economic and real estate information at the county and zip code level © 2008 The Northern Nevada Regional MLS and NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® Reproduction, reprinting, or retransmission in any form is prohibited without written permission. The Northern Nevada Regional MLS Economic and Market Watch Report The Northern Nevada Regional MLS provides services to almost 3,000 real estate professionals throughout eight counties in the Northern Nevada and Lake Tahoe areas. Over 2.3 billion dollars in residential real estate sales transactions were reported through the MLS in 2003. The NNRMLS system hosts content on over 160,000 property listings and public records information from five local counties. Properties for sale can be found on-line at realtor.com, rgj.com and on countless broker websites throughout the region. We are committed to providing real estate professionals with superior real estate market information services and technology. NNRMLS is pleased to expand services to our members by providing the Economic and Market Watch Report, designed to help identify current and future economic and real estate trends that affect our market and our industry. Index Local Report Nevada Churchill County ......................................................................................................... Douglas County ............................................................................................................ Lyon County ................................................................................................................. Storey County .............................................................................................................. Washoe County ............................................................................................................ Carson City .................................................................................................................. Others ........................................................................................................................... 1 2 3 4 5 7 8 Trends ............................................................................................................................................... Chief Economist's Commentary* ................................................................................................... Local Forecast .................................................................................................................................. Economic Monitor* ......................................................................................................................... 9 10 11 12 *Reprinted from Real Estate Outlook: Market Trends and Insights. ©2008 NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS ®. Used with permission. Reproduction, reprinting, or retransmission of this article in any form (electronic media included) is prohibited without permission. For subscription information please call 1-800-874-6500. Local Report Churchill County, NV Buyer's Market 1 2 3 4 5 Seller's Market Labor Market : In the first two months of the first quarter, 225 jobs were added to the payrolls of Churchill County. As a result of these new jobs, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 6.1% during the fourth quarter to 5.4% for January and February. The strong employment climate may help to create demand for home purchases. Favorable mortgage rates should augment this trend. Housing Market : Q1' 08 Average Price # Homes on the Market * # Homes Sold ** # New Homes Built *** Avg # of Days on Market **** * Available as of Jun. 30, 2008. ** May not add to total of zip codes. *** During the first two months of 2nd quarter. **** Days on market is defined as the difference between the list date and contract date. Q2' 08 $181,300 273 46 29 150 *** (Forecast) Q3' 08 $191,200 255 56 12 138 Data by Zip Codes for Q2 2008 Zip Code 89406 Average Price $181,300 Price Change *** -16.03% Total # Homes Sold (Quarter) 46 % Change in # Homes Sold *** -26.98% Average Days on Market 150 % of Asking Price (Sold/ List Price) 90.1% *** % Change of current quarter compared to the same quarter to year ago. 1 Local Report Douglas County, NV Buyer's Market 1 2 3 4 5 Seller's Market Labor Market : In the first two months of the first quarter, 375 jobs were added to the payrolls of Douglas County. As a result of these new jobs, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 7.1% during the fourth quarter to 6.6% for January and February. The strong employment climate may help to create demand for home purchases. Favorable mortgage rates should augment this trend. Housing Market : Q1' 08 Average Price # Homes on the Market * # Homes Sold ** # New Homes Built *** Avg # of Days on Market **** * Available as of Jun. 30, 2008. ** May not add to total of zip codes. *** During the first two months of 2nd quarter. **** Days on market is defined as the difference between the list date and contract date. Q2' 08 $356,200 885 173 19 121 *** (Forecast) Q3' 08 $485,300 822 130 10 148 Data by Zip Codes for Q2 2008 Zip Code 89410 89411 89423 89448 89449 89460 89705 OTHER Average Price $300,400 $678,100 $340,800 $783,300 $485,900 $300,300 $231,400 $241,600 Price Change *** -27.51% 12.77% -27.47% -29.15% -29.68% -34.09% -30.97% -7.22% Total # Homes Sold (Quarter) 31 5 43 11 14 41 22 6 % Change in # Homes Sold *** -18.42% 25.00% 16.22% -15.38% 7.69% 5.13% 83.33% 20.00% Average Days on Market 120 143 121 181 166 92 94 211 % of Asking Price (Sold/ List Price) 88.0% 91.1% 89.5% 86.6% 88.3% 90.8% 90.0% 81.3% *** % Change of current quarter compared to the same quarter to year ago. 2 Local Report Lyon County, NV Buyer's Market 1 2 3 4 5 Seller's Market Labor Market : In the first two months of the first quarter, 602 jobs were added to the payrolls of Lyon County. As a result of these new jobs, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 9.4% during the fourth quarter to 8.4% for January and February. The strong employment climate may help to create demand for home purchases. Favorable mortgage rates should augment this trend. Housing Market : Q1' 08 Average Price # Homes on the Market * # Homes Sold ** # New Homes Built *** Avg # of Days on Market **** * Available as of Jun. 30, 2008. ** May not add to total of zip codes. *** During the first two months of 2nd quarter. **** Days on market is defined as the difference between the list date and contract date. Q2' 08 $195,400 955 173 13 111 *** (Forecast) Q3' 08 $196,300 857 128 23 132 Data by Zip Codes for Q2 2008 Zip Code 89403 89408 89428 89429 89430 89444 89447 OTHER Average Price $236,100 $176,200 $89,000 $171,200 $255,000 $256,300 $155,900 $236,600 Price Change *** -21.17% -26.46% N/A 5.68% N/A -44.83% -28.81% 37.16% Total # Homes Sold (Quarter) 54 83 1 17 1 2 11 4 % Change in # Homes Sold *** 25.58% -14.43% N/A -37.04% N/A -60.00% -47.62% -55.56% Average Days on Market 96 119 318 148 8 77 73 98 % of Asking Price (Sold/ List Price) 89.8% 85.9% 67.9% 88.8% 101.3% 90.1% 91.8% 91.5% *** % Change of current quarter compared to the same quarter to year ago. 3 Local Report Storey County, NV Buyer's Market 1 2 3 4 5 Seller's Market Labor Market : In the first two months of the first quarter, 20 jobs were added to the payrolls of Storey County. As a result of these new jobs, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 7.5% during the fourth quarter to 6.1% for January and February. The strong employment climate may help to create demand for home purchases. Favorable mortgage rates should augment this trend. Housing Market : Q1' 08 Average Price # Homes on the Market * # Homes Sold ** # New Homes Built *** Avg # of Days on Market **** * Available as of Jun. 30, 2008. ** May not add to total of zip codes. *** During the first two months of 2nd quarter. **** Days on market is defined as the difference between the list date and contract date. Q2' 08 $224,600 100 10 2 205 *** (Forecast) Q3' 08 $355,700 77 8 2 171 Data by Zip Codes for Q2 2008 Zip Code 89440 OTHER Average Price $235,000 $221,900 Price Change *** -17.98% -35.74% Total # Homes Sold (Quarter) 2 8 % Change in # Homes Sold *** -50.00% -57.89% Average Days on Market 154 218 % of Asking Price (Sold/ List Price) 77.1% 86.5% *** % Change of current quarter compared to the same quarter to year ago. 4 Local Report Washoe County, NV Buyer's Market 1 2 3 4 5 Seller's Market Labor Market : In the first two months of the first quarter, 1,854 jobs were added to the payrolls of Washoe County. As a result of these new jobs, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 6.3% during the fourth quarter to 6.1% for January and February. The strong employment climate may help to create demand for home purchases. Favorable mortgage rates should augment this trend. Housing Market : Q1' 08 Average Price # Homes on the Market * # Homes Sold ** # New Homes Built *** Avg # of Days on Market **** * Available as of Jun. 30, 2008. ** May not add to total of zip codes. *** During the first two months of 2nd quarter. **** Days on market is defined as the difference between the list date and contract date. Q2' 08 $318,600 4,250 1,131 202 105 *** (Forecast) Q3' 08 $325,300 3,788 701 261 106 Data by Zip Codes for Q2 2008 Zip Code 89402 89431 89433 89434 89436 89439 89451 89501 89502 Average Price $885,000 $187,300 $169,300 $234,200 $283,900 $325,000 $832,200 $324,400 $240,500 Price Change *** N/A -17.05% -21.22% -18.28% -16.70% -50.88% -49.05% 25.49% -9.79% Total # Homes Sold (Quarter) 1 62 34 66 166 1 9 14 56 % Change in # Homes Sold *** N/A -15.07% -29.17% -8.33% 9.21% -66.67% 200.00% 250.00% -30.00% Average Days on Market 119 101 80 87 81 174 153 186 113 % of Asking Price (Sold/ List Price) 95.2% 31.4% 5.7% 88.2% 89.6% 83.5% 88.0% 82.2% 35.3% *** % Change of current quarter compared to the same quarter to year ago. 5 Local Report Washoe County, NV Data by Zip Codes for Q2 2008 Zip Code 89503 89504 89506 89509 89510 89511 89512 89521 89523 89704 OTHER Average Price $225,900 $282,500 $204,400 $327,400 $157,500 $657,800 $167,400 $323,000 $355,800 $422,000 $422,700 Price Change *** -15.61% N/A -18.37% -29.52% -68.40% -19.86% -12.22% -11.46% -9.30% -24.18% -17.04% Total # Homes Sold (Quarter) 49 1 145 99 2 101 31 88 108 9 89 % Change in # Homes Sold *** -38.75% N/A -15.70% -21.43% -71.43% -0.98% -16.22% -3.30% 2.86% 12.50% 128.21% Average Days on Market 112 64 90 133 15 174 98 88 108 107 87 % of Asking Price (Sold/ List Price) 86.4% 95.8% 87.9% 85.3% 90.3% 85.6% 85.2% 89.4% 89.3% 85.0% 89.8% *** % Change of current quarter compared to the same quarter to year ago. 6 Local Report Carson City, NV Buyer's Market 1 2 3 4 5 Seller's Market Labor Market : In the first two months of the first quarter, 546 jobs were added to the payrolls of Carson City. As a result of these new jobs, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 7.1% during the fourth quarter to 6.4% for January and February. The strong employment climate may help to create demand for home purchases. Favorable mortgage rates should augment this trend. Housing Market : Q1' 08 Average Price # Homes on the Market * # Homes Sold ** # New Homes Built *** Avg # of Days on Market **** * Available as of Jun. 30, 2008. ** May not add to total of zip codes. *** During the first two months of 2nd quarter. **** Days on market is defined as the difference between the list date and contract date. Q2' 08 $279,300 453 106 1 113 *** (Forecast) Q3' 08 $293,700 396 89 7 108 Data by Zip Codes for Q2 2008 Zip Code 89701 89703 89706 OTHER Average Price $233,100 $400,000 $225,200 $272,200 Price Change *** -22.71% -12.74% -13.05% -21.22% Total # Homes Sold (Quarter) 44 30 29 3 % Change in # Homes Sold *** -15.38% -23.08% -29.27% 50.00% Average Days on Market 97 136 124 38 % of Asking Price (Sold/ List Price) 90.7% 87.3% 89.9% 97.0% *** % Change of current quarter compared to the same quarter to year ago. 7 Local Report Others Data by Zip Codes for Q2 2008 Zip Code 89408 89415 89419 89429 89509 96120 96150 OTHER Average Price $150,000 $101,400 $115,000 $103,000 $240,000 $401,700 $365,000 $600,000 Price Change *** N/A 9.15% 17.35% N/A N/A -6.04% -58.04% N/A Total # Homes Sold (Quarter) 1 8 2 1 1 3 1 1 % Change in # Homes Sold *** N/A -52.94% 100.00% N/A N/A 50.00% -91.67% N/A Average Days on Market 13 114 37 41 67 210 132 1 % of Asking Price (Sold/ List Price) 103.5% 90.0% 86.8% 83.7% 51.1% 92.5% 84.9% 97.4% *** % Change of current quarter compared to the same quarter to year ago. 8 Trends Improvement or Flash-in-the-Pan? By Ken Fears Manager, Regional Economics Now that we can review the second quarter of 2008, sales rose with the seasonal upswing in demand and prices. But many factors such as moderating prices and historically low mortgage rates suggest that affordability is better today than it’s been in years. With strong current conditions and the potential for rising mortgage rates, many periodicals and news figure-heads, even CNBC’s once pessimist Jim Kramer has advised that now is the time to be looking to purchase. But are potential buyers following suit? Home sales rose 2.0% nationally between April and May. This increase came even as mortgage rates rose from their January lows around 5.5% to nearly 6.4% in late June. Historically, sales and prices have tended to rise every spring and summer and decline during the fall and winter. This pattern is driven by the school year: families tend to move when the children are out of school. Since this extra demand is added to core demand during the warm months, sales volume increases. Also, as families require larger homes, the median price tends to rise as well. Give this seasonal pattern, can it be asserted that the recent increase in sales is due to seasonal buying patterns or an actually improvement in buyer sentiments? Here in the market covered by the Northern Nevada Regional MLS, sales fell 11.3% compared to the same period in 2007, while the average price has decreased 17.6% d over this same period. But simply looking at sales and prices on a year over year basis may not be enough. Since the national market slowdown has been in motion for nearly 2 years, there could be a year-over-year difference that does not account for an improvement in buyers sentiments during the intervening three quarters. In short, this market may be slower than a year ago, but it could have picked up in last three to six months. Changes to days on market and the concessions that sellers make might shed some light on this issue. 37.5 37 36.5 36 35.5 35 34.5 34 2007 Q2 2007 Q3 2007 Q4 2008 Q1 2008 Q2 Days on Market Concession (right) 94% 93% 92% 91% 90% 89% 88% 87% 86% 85% As can be seen from the graph above, average days on market rose over the 15-month period ending in June. Over this same period, the average concession fell. These patterns suggest that it is still unclear if there has been an improvement in consumers’ perception of the market and willingness to participate actively. This housing market is one of the most difficult in memory. The buyers that enter the market are finding their way to working out deals with sellers. But getting buyers to enter the market is the big problem. As the market moves away stalemate and to another, lower equilibrium, buyers are likely to come back to the market seeking deals. Potential buyers need to realize that deals won’t seek them out, though. Good deals must be sought and bargained for. 9 Commentary Real Estate - A Nice "Commodity" Play! by Lawrence Yun, NAR Chief Economist We are all well aware of high commodity prices in today's market. Most tangible raw materials are commanding sky high prices. Oil, diesel, copper, steel, cement, and other construction related costs (except lumber) are all up substantially. Some have even brought back the Malthusian theory of too many people on earth outstripping available resources. We can see the effect in inflation figures. In the past five years the consumer price index has risen 18 percent; the producer price index for construction has increased 39 percent during the same period. In light of the resource price boom, one interesting angle that has not been delved into deeply is that real estate could be a nice commodity play. Real estate -- with all its tangible and concrete solid qualities (unlike paper financial assets) - has historically been a good hedge against inflation. High commodity prices -- and high inflation rates in the late 1970s and early 1980s -- led to double-digit gains in home prices. So why hasn't that happened this time? One reason goes back to supply and demand. Right now there are too many home sellers (some of whom are trying to sell one of several properties they own) in relation to home buyers. The short-term dynamics of high home inventory (of both new and existing homes) will require some time to work off. However, once inventory reaches a manageable level, does it then mean a that real estate prices will "catch-up" to reflect high commodity costs and the high costs of construction? Think about two different households (one owner, one buyer) interested in homes situated where land is cheap and plentiful. How much are those homes worth? If a household desires to build a (new) home there, then the real price of that home will be the cost of construction. But let's assume that the home owner wanted to charge a much higher price (i.e., more than the cost of construction) to sell that home to a buyer. The buyer would do well by simply building a new home at the cost of construction rather than paying the higher asking price. So the long-term home price equilibrium can be viewed simply as the cost of production. If the cost rises, then so will the home price. In areas of the country where developable land is relatively widely available, the rising cost of construction will surely then lead to proportionately higher home prices. Of course, where land is not cheap and/or plentiful, then real estate prices will not only reflect the cost of construction, but also the shortage (in supply) and the premium value of the land. New York, San Francisco, and the Washington D.C. areas, for example, will always command high home prices because of the very limited land supply that is close to downtown job centers. Inflation has been - and always will be -- a big headache for the country, our economy and consumers. One way for consumers to assuage the pain of inflation, however, is to own commodities. A simple, good way is to own real estate. If commodity prices further accelerate for some reason, you will automatically be in the game. 10 Forecast The Forecast By Lawrence Yun, Vice President, NAR Research Modest near-term movement is expected in existing-home sales, with a recovery in sales seen during the second half of the year. The Pending Home Sales Index,* NAR’s forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in May, fell 4.7 percent to 84.7 from an upwardly revised reading of 88.9 in April, and remains 14.0 percent below May 2007 when it stood at 98.5. Some pullback after a sharp increase in the previous month was expected. The overall decline in contract signings suggests we are not out of the woods by any means. The housing stimulus bill has become a law and this will begin to make a measurable impact in raising home sales later in the year. . But location has never mattered more than in the current market. Look at the pending home sales index for the West. While it’s true the index slipped 1.3 percent to 97.5 in May in that region, it was 2.0 percent higher than it was in May of 2007. Indeed, some markets have seen a doubling in home sales from a year ago, while others are seeing contract signings cut in half. For instance, double-digit pending sales gains in May from a year ago were noted in Colorado Springs CO, Sacramento CA and Spartanburg SC. In addition, price conditions vary tremendously, even within a locality, depending upon a neighborhood’s exposure to subprime loans. Although inflationary expectations appear to be under control for the time being, sharper consumer price gains could lead to notably higher mortgage interest rates in 2009. Based on current indicators, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is forecast to rise gradually to 6.8 percent by the end of this year, and then hold at that level for most of 2009. The speed at which home prices has declined in a few select markets is unprecedented, but the large price declines in those areas have enticed bargain hunters back into the market. Interestingly, there have been reports of multiple bidding after the large price cuts, so it is possible that most of the price declines have already occurred in those markets. The aggregate median existing-home price (on a national basis) is projected to fall 6.2 percent this year to $205,300, and then rise by 4.3 percent in 2009 to $214,100. New-home sales are a different story. They are likely to fall 32.3 percent to 525,000 in 2008 and decline another 3.4 percent next year to 507,000. In light of high inventory conditions, rising commodity prices and construction costs will curtail new home construction deep into next year. Housing starts, including multifamily units, will probably fall 28.7 percent to 966,000 this year, and then drop another 9.0 percent in 2009 to 879,000. The precipitous drop in starts is due in part to some overbuilding during the “boom” years, as well as the rising costs of construction. Officially, the U.S. economy has still not drifted into recession. In fact, GDP growth in the second quarter of this year was close to 2 percent. Growth in GDP is forecast at 1.6 percent for all of 2008 and 1.4 percent next year – not spectacular, but still positive. Inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, is forecast at 3.7 percent this year and 2.4 percent in 2009. Inflation-adjusted disposable personal income is projected to grow 1.5 percent in both 2008 and 2009. So, what does all this mean for housing consumers? It will continue to be a buyer’s market for a while. Obviously, we will need to watch development with credit markets and the GSEs, but if a potential buyer can qualify for a mortgage, there is plenty of choice out there for homes. 11 This table reflects data available through July 2008. Economic Monitor Likely Direction Over the Next Forecast Six Months Monthly Indicator Recent Statistics Existing Home Sales posted 4.99 million seasonally adjusted annualized May 08 4,990 units in May – a 2.0% increase from April’s level. Resales rose in all Apr 08 4,890 regions but the South, and even there they were only down 0.5%. The national median home price for an existing home was $208,600, down 6.3% May 07 5,930 compared to a year ago. The inventory of existing homes was at a 10.8 months supply at the current sales pace. New Home Sales declined 2.5% in May to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 512,000 units. April’s figure was revised downward to 525,000 units. Sales of new homes are off 40.3% compared to the pace in May 2007. The supply of new homes available for sale rose slightly to a 10.9 months supply. Housing Starts slipped 3.3% in May, posting a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 975,000 units. Both single-family and multi-family units fell, but multifamily units are up compared to their year-ago level. Housing permits, generally a reliable indicator of future starts, fell for single-family units while posting a mild increase for multifamily units. May 08 512 Apr 08 525 May 07 857 Sales activity is getting turbo charged in areas with notable price declines as buyers pick up bargains. Very few new homes being built May 08 975 Apr 08 1,008 May 07 1,436 High commodity prices will cut profit margins and negatively impact construction Sizable gains in California, Florida, Nevada, and Arizona May 08 125.4 Index stood at 125.4 for the month, down from the 130.6 reading in April. Apr 08 130.6 The decline was due in large part to increases in most of the components May 07 110.4 of the index, including a month-tomonth rise in the median home price, as well as increases in mortgage rates and qualifying income. Even so, May’s index is still well above the 110.4 posted in May 2007. Mortgage Rates The 30-year fixed mortgage rate jumped 28 basis points in June to 6.32%. Rates are at their highest level since since October 2007. June 08 6.32% But relatively low mortgage rates and weak home prices have been fueling May 08 6.04% June 07 6.61% local home sales in some markets such as those in California and Florida. Mortgage rates are expected to rise in the second half of the year, although at a steady level. Employment The U.S. economy shed 62,000 payroll jobs in June – the June 08 -62 sixth straight month of job losses. April and May job figures were revised May 08 -62 and showed more job losses than previously registered. Construction jobs 12-month have borne the brunt of job cuts, losing more jobs than any other sector total -42 over the past 12 months. Bright employment spots included health care, thousand education, government, mining (from the commodity boom), and leisure/ hospitality sectors all of which posted job gains. Economic Growth Despite ongoing job cuts, the U.S. economy did grow in the first quarter of 2008, posting a GDP growth rate of 1.0% for the 2008:I 1.0% quarter. The figure is an upward revision from a previous estimate of 2007:IV 0.6% 0.9%. This is the third and final revision of GDP growth based on more 2007:I 1.2% complete data. For comparison, real GDP increased 0.6% in the fourth quarter of 2007. The increase reflects increased spending for services, exports of goods and services, and federal government spending. Housing Affordability slipped in May. NAR’s Housing Affordability Inching higher because mortgage lenders want to be protected from inflation GDP expands and lifts labor demand GDP expands but not robustly as consumers are tapped out Notes: All rate are seasonally adjusted. New home sales, existing home sales, and housing starts are shown in thousands. Employment growth is shown as month-to-month change in thousands. Inflation is shown as the month-to-month change in the Consumer Price Index. Sources: NAR, Bureau of the Census, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Freddie Mac, and the Mortgage Bankers Association 12