FORECLOSURERADAR.COM - Riverside County - June 2008
In reviewing the foreclosure statistics for Riverside County we found that we continue to be near the peak of the foreclosure. Something changed this month, the NOS's peaked for the year but the NOD's relaxed slightly. Is this a start of a trend downward in foreclosures or is this the result of SB1137 pasted last month, only time will tell. For the full impact of SB 1137 on the foreclosure process review our earlier post titled SB 1137 will change foreclosure numbers.
The ratio of the NOS's to NOD's, with a 90 day lag, continues at an alarmingly high ratio, as it continues at a high rate as it has all year, currently it is at 93% up 7% from last month. (Why a 90 day lag on the data? NOD's expire and move into NOS's at 90 days)
The number of NOD's has peaked for this year last month at 5,111, this month has relaxed to 4,928 a 3.6% decrease. The sad thing is that this month the NOD and NOS YTD numbers surpasses all of 2007's. We are on track to book 61,500 NOD's and 45,000 NOS's in 2008, let's hope for a better year in 2009.
Here is where we break out the crystal ball, we predict the following:
NOS's for August will be 4,730
NOS's for September will be 4,490
NOS's for October will be 4,340,
We used 88% of the NOD's to come up with these numbers with a 90 day lag. Keep in mind that the NOS cure rate is still around 12% so the actual number of foreclosures will be less.
How was last month's prediction?
We predicted the NOS's would hit approx. 4,590 in July 2008, they came in at 4,834. Our prediction was 5.3% light, that is why they call it a prediction. Last month we missed the prediction in San Bernardino county by 2 units.
For the full report with the raw data visit Empire Realty's Market Reports Blog.
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