So I was just accused of so many things in my recent post: "Stats" Surrounded by Doom & Gloom.
First I was accused of being a "cheerleader" instead of giving "accurate and impartial information" like Broker Bryant. Well I will honestly and openly admit I am NO Broker Bryant. No one can be sooooooooo good looking like him!
Here is another difference: Broker Bryant reports on real estate from his side of the earth: Florida. While I report on mine: Nevada. What forces drive the Florida market are completely different forces driving the Nevada market and it even gets more local than that!
I have to dispell myth and fact from fantasy because I deal with it on a DAILY basis! People hear prices are dropping. Well my phone starts ringing and I have to tell them WHY prices are dropping or <more accurately> WHY they appear to be dropping. Prices APPEAR to be dropping because of NEW entry level product entering our resale market from speculators. Read: Do Median & Average Sale Prices Mean Much in Your Market These Days? What is the media ever going to do and say NEXT year when our condo prices actually RISE at a good clip as the highrise resale market moderates and heats up? We have one high rise building closing a month and a glut of high rise resale inventory right now (38 months to be exact!)
SO I flippantly answer my accuser saying "who cares" about Las Vegas listings inventory! (Quite honestly inventory is a yawner like list prices.) And then I get this:
Now you might say "who cares?", but if I were a buyer in the LV market looking for a realtor, I'd want one that cared, and I'd want one who kept track of the number of new listings in order to help me understand the market conditions and get me the best deal possible.
Great, now I am a crappy Realtor because in the grand scheme of things I am trying to spread a little good news about a market that is feeling a turn. A really good turn! Does anyone understand what a NON-MOTIVATED seller is? Does anyone understand what a NOVICE SPECULATOR is? Does anyone know what PANIC selling is? Well that just about describes most of our listings. Nobody has anywhere to go.
Prices are holding tight because everyone wants to see their return or get their price or just throw their home on the market to make it a grand fishing expedition. (FYI: I just answered my questions in that paragraph!)
With all of that being said: 2006 was our second highest year for new construction closes and third highest year for resale closes (UNITS.) I don't like looking at it from an inventory perspective when we have so many micro-markets and NON-MOTIVATED SELLERS in our single market!
SO I get no apologies after I explained how I counseled a seller/buyer just last week about how she wants to sell her condo (14 months inventory) and move to an entry level single family home (less than 5 months inventory.) That is a HUGE challenge to make sure it works out right.
What starts out to be a blog post to dispel what was being said, turns out to be a post to debunk me period, no facts, figures or stats to refute. I posted on 1/11/2007 to even back up my claims. Back then there was almost no Las Vegas new construction standing inventory left in the entry level single family home market. I am seeing it filter into the resale entry level single family home market. That is all I was trying to say. For speculators, investors and home buyers to grasp. Is this not good news or what?
Sue me, I am a cheerleader!
Rah rah ree, kick em in the knee! Rah rah rass, kick em in the other knee!
PS: I love differing opinions and respect them but if you are going to come to my table with them, please bring some stats to back yourself up!
Excellent post! And so true. I'll never understand why we can get slammed for local information, from folks in different markets...(or for that matter, why folks in other markets are answering Q&A that's not their area, but I digress). GO right ahead and cheer-your clients KNOW you care because they know you're on top of your game.