Making Sense Out of a Media Mess

Did you catch Tim Knauss' article in today's Home & Real Estate section of the Syracuse Post Standard?  Here's the link if you're interested in reading it: http://www.syracuse.com/poststandard/stories/index.ssf?/base/living-0/121870416692560.xml&coll=1

The article states NYSAR (New York Association of Realtors) as saying sales in Onondaga, Cayuga, Madison and Oswego counties as down 10.4% year to date.  Being the kind of person who questions statistics (statistics are only as good as the person interpreting them, right?), I naturally sought to data to confirm or refute this claim.

My first check was to cnyrealtor.com, our local board of Realtors.  Reading "Syracuse Real Estate Market Watch", posted on 8/6/08, I can't quite tell if I'm supposed to be cheering the board on for their show of faith or booing their pass the buck style.  But what it doesn't clearly say is whether this is a good market or not.

I figured the next place to check is NYSAR, get it from the horse's mouth so to speak.  "New York housing market remains solid through first half of 2008" starts out by saying that from May to June of this year single family home sales  .  It's not until you read the next to last paragraph that you read about a state-wide drop of 19% when comparing January 1 - June 30 of 2007 to 2008 (and the last paragraph doesn't count toward the article in my opinon)  What gives more information, yet leaves the reader to analyze independently, is the NYSAR monthly sales chart.

So what does it mean?  NYSAR and The Greater Syracuse Board of Realtors to a certain extent have to be an agent's cheering squad, while still presenting to facts.  The Post Standard, as an entity relatively  independent of the real estate market is more like to just present facts.  I say relatively because to a certain extent the paper has to be dependent on all those ads agents and brokers place.  However, no matter how well the reporter can interpret the data, he's still not on the inside track.

So maybe GSAR has it right when the say to ask your local Realtor.  Real estate is all local, and even around central New York there are huge differences between towns and neighborhoods.  All in all, the most accurate indicator I know is reflected through my open houses.  Some listings will pull in a dozen or more potential buyers, some will pull in none or a couple of tire kickers.  Most, however, will bring one or two fairly interested parties to the open house.  Things are moving, but it's hard to compare after we all got used to "Sold in 3 days!" market. 

I particularly think it's a great market to be a first time home buyer.  You don't have to worry about selling a house before buying, there are some incredible deals to be had, and even though mortgage rates have crept upward they are still very good (and no where near double digits!)