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30 States had Positive Changes in House Prices over the last year!

More good news for the real estate industry!!

According to the Office of Federal Housing Oversight's Housing Price Index for the 2nd Quarter of 2008 released August 26th, 30 of the 50 States had positive changes in house prices from June 2007 through June 2008, including our very own Washington State!

Only 4 States (Arizona, Florida, Nevada, and California) experienced overall price declines of more than 5 percent.

The 20 ranked cities in the United States with the worst price declines over the last 4 quarters were ALL in Florida, California, and Nevada.

I really do sympathize with the people of these four fine States. Some of the price declines they have experienced are simply horrible! However, there are 50 States and only 4 with truly bad news for the last year. The rest of the country is simply experiencing a market correction from a rapid increase over the last 5 years combined with some sloppy loan practices that hurt the lending industry. The United States overall had a -1.71% change over the last year (skewed down heavily by the 4 troubled States). However, even with the challenges over the last year, the United States STILL has had a 34.84% increase in home prices over the last 5 years! - How is that supposed to be bad???

Over the last 5 years, Arizona STILL gained 62.68%, Florida STILL gained 54.03%, Nevada STILL Gained 50.81%, and California STILL gained 41.81% despite the losses of the last 4 quarters.

It is time for the news media to put away the "Chicken Little - The Sky is Falling" type stories. The truth is that the nation's real estate market is rebounding.

- I've posted the top 30 States in the comments section, CLICK HERE to see them.

Posted by Bill Sauneuf on 08/28/2008 03:44 AM

Comments (53)

ofheo, market, market report, washington, washington state, rebounding

This post has been included in Washington Information

53 Comments on 30 States had Positive Changes in House Prices over the last year!

AUG

2008

The States with a Positive Change in Prices from the 2nd Quarter 2007 through the 2nd Quarter 2008 are:

1)   Oklahoma,
2)   Wyoming,
3)   South Dakota,
4)   North Carolina,
5)   North Dakota,
6)   Texas,
7)   West Virginia,
8)   Montana,
9)   South Carolina,
10) Alabama,
11) Kentucky,
12) Mississippi,
13) Louisiana,
14) Tennessee,
15) Maine,
16) Utah,
17) Iowa,
18) Colorado,
19) Indiana,
20) New Mexico,
21) Vermont,
22) Nebraska,
23) Pennsylvania,
24) Kansas,
25) Idaho,
26) Georgia,
27) Arkansas,
28) Wisconsin,
29) Missouri,
30) Washington

In a time when our media is hell-bent on delivering their daily dose of negative housing data, it's refreshing to read of good news on the national housing market scene. We appreciate your post more than you will ever know. Even in our local Greater Baton Rouge market where we're still doing well, our local media (The Advocate Newspaper) has begun their negative media campaign on Greater Baton Rouge Real Estate. Your post shows once again that even our local media don't get it. Bill

Wow... I had no idea that many states were in the positive!

Thanks for the update.

Cameron Novak
The Homefinding Center
951-212-7479

Hi Bill - Good post! It's important for Realtors to be part of the solution and not part of the problem. One way we can do that is to provide accurate market reports to counter balance inflammatory news stories.

Our area is up in the number of sales for the past 4 consecutive months vs. last year. Prices are drifting lower but not by much.

The winds of change are blowing.....

One could make the case that the states not listed still have some great values available that will end sooner rather than later based on the enclosed information. So really it's all good news, for those in recovery and those not yet named. Steve

This is the "news" that isn't reported. Going back to the beginning of this housing debacle, I still say the press started and stoked it.

The price declines in those 4 states are not really horrible, because the prices went up way too high, way too fast. It is horrible for the people who bought in 2003 and later though.

I don't think Case-Shiller isn't agreeing with that. They are calling GA a loss over the last year, although the month to month numbers were up.

Nice to have some good news for a change and see that West Virginia is looking good. Bill, thanks for sharing this.

BILL - There are only 2 ways for the media to stop with their "chicken little" stories. The first is that they must replace the "housing crisis" with a more interesting and newer crisis. The other is that they need to see the broad numbers rising. They will then declare that we've hit bottom. The problem is that there is no one day when a whole market bottoms out. This varies from neighborhood to neighborhood. By the time that this lagging indicator is promoted, the market will not only have bottomed out in most areas, it will actually be rising.

People like us need to counter the doom and gloom media. This post is an excellent start! Well-deserved feature.

It is certainly true that news companies are in the business to make a profit, and bad news sells better than good news.

On the other hand I'm in Michigan. Oh well...

I live in Nevada and am not all that surprised to hear we are in the bottom 4! We had such a HUGE boom in the early 2000's it was bound to happen. But honestly, things are starting to look up, a little. I am glad to hear this positive report about the other 46 states! Have a great weekend.

Hi Bill, This report is actually getting quite a bit of attention. Will you direct me to the page where you gather the following: " Over the last 5 years, Arizona STILL gained 62.68%, Florida STILL gained 54.03%, Nevada STILL Gained 50.81%, and California STILL gained 41.81% despite the losses of the last 4 quarters. " Thanks !

Bill G. - The 2nd Quarter 2008 Housing Price Index can be downloaded from the following URL:
http://www.ofheo.gov/media/pdf/2q08hpi.pdf.

If you're talking to people on the phone, just tell them to go to www.OFHEO.gov and look for the "House Price Index" about half way down the page on the right.

Either way, it is an 87 page .pdf file that you're downloading. The data on the 4 states you asked about is at the bottom of page 14.

Good luck using the information!! There are plenty of good things to say about the real estate market... Unfortunately, none of the good things seem to make it into the press these days. Find some good news and spread the word!!

Bill - that's an excellent bit of knowledge. But can you help me get Arizona onto that list?

Cheers,
Paul Dunn

Bill, This is great information to have and I so appreciate you sharing this. Looking at the appreciation rates for the worst 4 states, it sheds a new light on the situation, doesn't it? Why will the media not use this information in a positive way, like you just did? I'm impressed. Thanks again.

Paul - Sure, no problem at all... Happy to help! Here you go...

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Despite the challenges over the last year, the homes in the Great State of Arizona have STILL gained 62.68% over the last 5 years. - How is that supposed to be bad?

Buying a home is a long term investment. The downward spiral is nearing its end. On July 30th, President Bush signed the Housing Bill that will make $300 Billion available in low interest fixed rate loans to people at risk of losing their homes to foreclosure. That will reduce the foreclosure rate and help stabilize the overall housing market.

Have you ever heard the statement "Buy Low, Sell High!", we're coming into the low. Its time to BUY...

-----------------------

Tell your customers, tell the agents in your office, tell your competitors around the whole State... The news media is not going to do it for you. Agents and brokers need to talk about the positives that are happening! - There is positive news out there!!! Find it and tell people about it!!!

Thanks for the heads up Bill. The 4 states that are still having a decline had a huge boom prior to those 4 quarters. Home values skyrocketed in those markets to levels much higher than elsewhere. There's still more price corrections to occur in those areas. For the rest of the county, this should be a sigh of relief and a sign that as mentioned real estate is having a turn around. But only in terms of the drive-by media's (if they decide to broadcast this) reporting as Bill mentioned that all states are still up at least almost 50% over the past 5 years.

Jesus tap dancing Christ, that is one painfull list of dilusional realtors churning propaganda. It's the media's fault? Did they double the values of houses in just a few years? You folks either need to get your heads examined or take some simple math and stat classes. This is not complicated stuff.

People live in places called CITIES. Around these cities are MARKETS. Across the COUNTRY, these markets are where a vast majority of the POPULATION lives. Your list of 30 states are where almost nobody lives. I don't care if home prices have gone up in Omaha. That information is important to the fourteen people that live there. The tens of millions of people that live there have seen the values of their houses drop by as much as 50% in the last couple of years. And to them, telling them that this market collapse is some sort of media-created myth, they see you for the liars that you are.

Not only are you all insensitive towards all of the idiots that bought in the past few years (after all, what good are they to you if they don't have some equity to pay your 3%?), but you obviously reek of desperation to get more buyers into the sinking ship. You don't care who gets screwed. After all, it's always the best time to buy.

Kevin,

Thank you for your comments.

I'm confident that it will come as no surprise to you that I disagree with you on a number of points.

First, you say that the list of 30 states are "where almost nobody lives", well according to the most recent US Census Data, there are approximately 135,652,954 people living in those States. Hardly "nobody" in my opinion. (Click here for the detailed breakdown)

Second, even in the current 20 worst markets in the country (Click here for the 2nd Quarter 2008 OFHEO Report, scroll down to page 27), ALL 20 of these cities/markets STILL show price gains over the last 5 years, despite the troubles of the last year.

What city's real estate market hurt you? I will be happy to look it up and show you the 5 year price change for your city. Of the 292 markets measured by the government, only 5 markets in the country had a net loss over the last 5 years. So, there is your local scale. As I said in my blog, real estate is a long term investment. That is no secret!

Third, there are a number of factors that have caused the market problems of the last year. The lending industry had made it too easy to get a home mortgage and people that couldn't afford a home were able to buy one. This caused the foreclosure rate to go up hurting the market. Gas prices made it so people who bought at the edge of a commute zone could no longer afford to pay for food, gas, and a mortgage. Is it a real estate agent's fault that gas prices went up? The news media has certainly jumped on the band-wagon and made things worse. The reports are that it is bad everywhere and that is simply not true... Look at the 135 million people above for example...

Fourth, the people that bought homes in the last few years are not "idiots"!! People can only make the best decision they can with the information in front of them. Buying a home is STILL the one of the best investments a person/family can make.

Fifth, You said "You don't care who gets screwed." - Are you out of your mind? If any one of my customers gets screwed somehow I'm out there with them to help figure things out and get through the problems. This is true for a lot of agents! We are people. We help people buy and sell homes. That is what we do for a living. It is no different than selling anything else. We are all business people trying to make a good living by helping people buy and sell things. In our case, we help people buy and sell homes.

In closing, I'll say it again... Buying a home is STILL the one of the best investments a person/family can make.

Thanks for the stats. The media seems to report whatever numbers fit their storyline for the day. The housing market is definitely localized and even the state numbers don't give the whole picture.

Bill - Thanks for clarifying your post with Kevin in your comment above, clearly, he hadn't had time to do the research you had on this subject!

I also agree that buying a home is still one of the best investments a person/family can make.

Aloha Bill,

I really appreciated your comments, especially since Hawaii isn't on that list of states with the worst decline. It's still a buyer's market and there are choices for those who wish to buy on Kauai.

Mahalo (thanks) for the uplifting news. I've "re-blogged" it as well.

Debra A. Jason, RA,ABR

When paradise is calling you, call me!

Direct: (808) 826 1846 cell: (808) 635 8031

www.kauaihawaii-realestate.com

dajason@hawaii.rr.com

HOWDY Bill!

So nice to hear the positive side! Our Houston market has been fairly sheltered from the "downturn" and homes that are in great shape and priced right go like hotcakes!!

Even in a buyers' market...there is plenty of business. It translates into a GREAT time to UPGRADE Sure you may take a loss on the property you are selling, but you get a price break on the BIGGER one you are buying.

It would be great if the agents did not perpetuate the myth of everything being bad. I am having my best year ever and it may be because I am not willing to buy into the doom and gloom heard in the halls of real estate offices.

Debra, Thank you for the re-blog! Spread the word far and wide!! If you'd like, I've made it printable in .pdf format. If you'd like to print it off, just say the word and give me an email address and you'll have it...

Thank you for giving us the 5 year gains! I think this is worthy of a re-blog myself and I am not a huge fan of reblog. Will disable comments so people can come straight here!

Wow that is really great news. Sad part my state CA did not not make to list.

PS: Earn Extra Income: Start Doing Broker Price Opinion(BPO) Part-time

Renee, Thanks for the re-blog... I like the re-blogging. Its like being syndicated.

I'm happy to have you spread the word!!

Sounds like Kevin might have gotten caught up in a bad loan or flip......

Vicki, Yes, there was too much bitterness in his comment for it to be much of anything else. Whatever it is or was, hopefully he'll pull through it OK. Sometimes a person needs to vent their frustrations. - I wish him well.

I just wish the media didn't make the market. Glad to see were in the postive

Thank you for a positive spin on the market! Being in Texas we are very fortunate right now!

Many midwestern areas like ours here in Wichita have enjoyed steady moderate increases in home values.

Renee sent me to this..... this is so right on.... it's funny, I knew the bad states, but with the media, they made it sound like there were so many more.... great job here.... could I repost / reblog this on my outside blog? Please let me know... jbelonger@ihmci.com thanks, jeff

Renee sent me to this..... this is so right on.... it's funny, I knew the bad states, but with the media, they made it sound like there were so many more.... great job here.... could I repost / reblog this on my outside blog? I so hate misleading or misinformation. I kind of just wrote about this tonight. In any case, please let me know... jbelonger@ihmci.com thanks, jeff

Jeff Belonger

AUG

2008

Jeff, by all means please re-blog/print/distribute this as much and as widely as possible. All I ask is that you give credit to me as the author and a link back to this blog or to my web-site with it.

If you would like to distribute it in print, I have created a .pdf of it. I'd be happy to email it to you if you'd like.

Thanks for the re-blog! When you get it posted, please post a link to it here as a comment... I like the whole re-blogging syndication idea...

Nice to see a postive national story, but I think we also need to remember that real estate is local. When people focus on price declines in the Las Vegas market, they're only getting half of the story. Just a few years earlier, we were one of the national leaders in price appreciation. If you look at our market with a longer time horizon, say 8-12 years, we still have solid appreciation. It's just that the last 3-5 years have been pretty dramatic.

John, you're absolutely right! The Las Vegas-Paridise, NV Metropolitan Statistical Area currently ranks 278th of 292.... Very near the bottom. Over the last year, the market has declined 17.67% according to the OFHEO report. In the last Quarter, prices have fallen 7.53%.... Very painful numbers indeed. [data from page 36 near the top]

However, when looking at the 5 year term, despite all of the recent setbacks, the Las Vegas-Paradise, NV Metropolitan Statistical Area STILL gained a whopping 49.56%. - How is that supposed to be bad?

Real estate is a long term investment!

Thank you for your comments!! They are appreciated!!

No, I gamed the system well and got out before the inevitable downturn. Well, it was inevitable to me, to you all it was "the best time to buy". So keep moving the goalposts. 5 years and it's still profitable. What you're essentially saying is that prices have fallen to about 2003 levels. Then when they hit 2001 levels you'll say how great it is that after seven years, they're still worth more. NAR propaganda and realtor talking points may work on your stupidest clientele, but I see past the unsophisticated rhetoric. Just like when the pollyannas try to silence the realists with the message "all real estate is local". Sure, but locally my market (Northern VA) is much worse than the national numbers, and LENDING is in fact national. It's always the best time to buy.

Kevin,

The Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight does the tracking and publishes the reports. For the individual Cities, they provide Percent Changes in House Prices for the timeframes of 1 Year, The Most Recent Quarter, 5 Year, and Since 1980. This is not "NAR propaganda" as you called it, this is the information as reported by the Federal Government. But you're right, it is certainly a Realtor talking point! The 5 year term STILL shows 287 of 292 local markets profitable, despite the challenges of the last year. In fact, many of the local markets, including mine and yours, show a 30% - 50% profit in that timeframe, despite the challenges of the last year. - It doesn't take 5 years to be profitable in most areas, but it is a nice benchmark.

Here are the numbers for the fine State of Virginia:

State	Rank (of 50)	1 Year	Quarter	5 Year	Since 1980
Virginia	40	-2.6	-1.91	56.76	363.09

You mentioned that you are in Northern Virginia. I'm going to presume that means the Arlington-Alexandria area. Currently ranked 250th of 292 and has had a bad year for home values to be sure. However, if you had invested in a home 5 years ago and kept it, your home STILL would have likely gained over 50% in value, despite the troubles of the last year.

Homes are not stock... You're not supposed to buy and sell on a daily, weekly, monthly, or even yearly basis. Homes are a long term investment. If you are only capable of doing short term investments for some reason (for example you plan to move in 2 years), buying a home is probably not the best investments for you. However, if you can make a long term investment then the purchase of a home is one of the best investments a person can make!

There are of course market fluxuations, and this year has certainly seen a big downward fluxuation in many parts of the country, but paying for a roof over your head is a necessary thing for most people. You've got to live somewhere, right? You can either pay someone else's mortgage by renting and increase their wealth or you can pay on your own mortgage and reduce the amount you owe on the typical 15 or 30 year long term mortgage and increase your own wealth.

Here are the 8 local markets of Virginia recognized by the OFHEO:

OFHEO Metropolitan Statistical Area	Rank (of 292)	1 Year	Quarter	5 Year

Blacksburg-Christiansburg-Radford, VA	98	1.71	-1.03	38.57
Charlottesville, VA	172	-0.43	-2.36	56.30
Kingsport-Bristol-Bristol, TN-VA	14	4.75	1.51	34.32
Lynchburg, VA	41	3.26	0.46	44.30
Richmond, VA	168	-0.39	-1.07	55.17
Roanoke, VA	67	2.52	-0.44	41.78
Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC	179	-0.70	-1.21	78.75
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV	250	-9.14	-4.37	56.44

For the individual Cities, the OFHEO does not include the change since 1980.

The message from NAR saying that "All real estate is local." is very true. This message is going out to counteract the news media reports. The news media stories have made it sound like the real estate market is terrible everywhere. That is simply not true! On a national scale, 30 of the 50 States had home values increase over the last year. More local markets were profitable than not! To bring it to your local level, the OFHEO recognizes 8 local markets in your State of Virginia. Despite how bad the Washington-Arlington-Alexandria market has been over the last year, half of the markets in Virginia were profitable over the last year. So yes, "All real estate is local." Your fine State of Virginia is a perfect example...

All data from:
Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight's 2nd Quarter 2008 House Price Index

I am in Fairfax County. Houses are now selling for 30-40% less than they did at market peak. In neighboring Prince William county, houses are selling for more than 70% less than peak. Houses are supposed to be long-term investments, but the average American family moves every seven years. Given the costs to sell/buy, and the amortization schedule, it's very financially risky to buy. And that's assuming that the value remains the same and doesn't go down even more. For instance, in seven years, will household GDP significantly increase? How high will the rates be at that point? This is scary stuff. We won't see peak prices return in my area until at least 2020.

Kevin,

Wow, you can forecast the future of real estate prices in your area until the year 2020.... Who's going to win the Super Bowl next year?

I don't know where you're getting your market data, but I don't have access to it from Washington State, so I'm not going to dispute your numbers... Though, if the market in your area had fallen as much as you say, I'm sure it would have made national headlines.

However, when you say "its very financially risky to buy", I have to disagree with you. As I pointed out before, 287 of the 292 areas all across the country measured by the OFHEO gained in value over the last 5 years - that is 98.3% of the markets! I'd love to bet with those odds!!

All of your commentary about the so called "risk" doesn't take into account that if you don't buy a house you have to live somewhere for the same time and that costs money too. Would you rather pay a little more per month and owe less on a property that has a 98.3% chance of going up in value in 5 years or would you rather rent and pay a bit less per month and have NOTHING beyond a roof over your head for 30 days? Even if a purchased home only is worth the same amount you paid for it, you'll owe less on it, so you'll have equity.

In the mean time, there are all the tax breaks that go along with owning a home and having a mortgage as well (Consult an accountant or other financial professional in your area for your specific benefits).

Kevin

I'm located in Northern Virginia maybe we can exchange views of the local market and maybe help each other out.

AUG

2008

Really great post! Business in our office has picked up in the last few weeks and other agents that I have talked to in the Triad area of NC are saying the same thing. Wish the media would report positive stories such as your post! Thanks for the reinforcement of what we are feeling...!!! Happy selling!!!

McCullough, the media is not going to do it...

That makes it our job/responsibility to get the word out. Feel free to re-blog this or if you prefer, I can send you a .pdf of this post for printing.

This blog and the information in it is hardly all of the good positive things to say about any market. The information is there for all of us to read and interpret. The OFHEO Report, the Consumer Confidence Index, your local MLS sales statistics.... On my web-site and in my blog I've posted some Reuters News Videos showing good real estate news. There's good news and information out there. You may have to dig a little to find it, but it is there!

I just did a post today about the good news in Florida real estate.

There is good news in Nevada, Arizona, & California as well. Again, it just takes an open mind and a goal of finding the good...

AUG

2008

wow...I had no idea so many states were in the positive...the media hypes everything up so much that I thought the decline was rampant throughout the states...now to figure out how to get the media to post this information...perhaps that will help the overall market confidence.

SEP

2008

It's appropriate that you have OK at the top. According to a recent report, OK ranked #1 in home appreciation over the past year. Thanks for putting the info out there.

Ryan, I didn't put the fine State of Oklahoma (OK) at the top... The OFHEO did, I listed them in order of Percent Change in House Prices and got the info from the 2nd Quarter Report - Page 13

There is great stuff in that report!! Take a look... There are going to be great numbers for you to use in the City Rankings too... 2 Local Oklahoma Markets are in the top 20 in the Nation! - see page 26 of the report to see which two.... ;-)

SEP

2008

Bill, thanks for focusing on the positive unlike the media. We need more silver lining thinking!

SEP

2008

Chuck, finding the GOOD news is really important these days... For the market to recover, people need to believe it and understand it. People are so focused on what's happening today that they lose sight of the big picture.

There is plenty of GOOD things to say about ALL 20 States that had market declines over the last year. Here are examples of Florida and California. (Two of the hardest hit States)

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