This election will most likely be decided by just 4 states. A very interesting analysis is provided by Redstate.com
All four of these states seem legitimately too close to call if you've been reading the polls. There are individual factors at work. McCain's been popular forever in New Hampshire, site of his crucial primary victories in 2000 and 2008 (both of which depended on his popularity with independents) and the home of countless McCain town halls and bus rides over the years, whereas Obama fared poorly in the primary there. In Nevada, the Yucca Mountain nuclear waste disposal site is a flashpoint; McCain's support of the site and ambitious plan to build more nuclear plants, compared to Obama's unwillingness to embrace either, put McCain in a bind there. Colorado's been trending Democratic due to a large influx of Latinos as well as liberal Californians. Then again, the distinctly Western flavor of the McCain-Palin ticket could prove appealing over prolonged exposure in CO, NV and NM
This is where things get really hairy, because there are three different combinations (McCain wins CO, or NM + NH, or NV + NH) that get us a 269-269 tie. I think we can all agree that this would be a terrible outcome for the nation, and would cripple the next president's ability to govern, just as the recount made it impossible for Bush, even before he took office, to even approach the "uniter, not a divider" tag he'd campaigned under; the Democrats were permanently estranged from him before Day One. The 12th amendment would then come into play and would favor Obama since there is a Democrat controlled Congress.
But the bottom line is, McCain needs 270 to win, Obama probably needs 269. And at this writing, the single state most likely to swing that difference is Colorado. The odds are pretty good that the margin of victory will be one state, maybe two, that are decided by just a percentage point or two.
* I lived in PA for 50 years and can tell you, you have never seen so many dead people vote! Rendell's political machine is fine tuned for sure. Having said that, PA is a huge 2nd amendment state and hunting haven. The schools close for deer season. McCain is only 2 down right now and he may have a chance. Palin a hunter and NRA member and her bubby a steele union worker could help.
Fasten your seatbelts!
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