Today there are reports coming out of three massive banks currently on the brink of financial meltdowns.  The situation at Belgium's Fortis bank with total assets of about $780 Billion appears most dire with Belgium's central bank trying to craft a rescue plan before Monday.  Over in England talks to save one of the countries largest independent banks Bradford & Bingley are taking place throughout the night. More than likely B&B will end up being nationalized by the British government by the end of the weekend.

Back in the US the situation at our sixth largest bank Wachovia with assets of $800B (or a little more than twice the size of Washington Mutual) has deteriorated significantly in the past week.  Wachovia's problem is nearly identical to that of Washington Mutual, they are holding huge amounts of option ARM's on their balance sheet, that have been defaulting at insane rates.  Their option ARM portfolio alone totaled around $140B with the majority of these being made in California who's housing market has been one of the worst hit.  While they've reserved only a couple billion to cover losses on this portfolio, it's a pretty good assumption the true losses are in the tens of billions.  They've been hit hard the last several days as concern has caused massive withdrawals of deposits and greatly increased their borrowing costs.  They officially put themselves up for sale on Friday and many suitors including Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, UBS and Citigroup have been rumored to be sniffing around.  Given the demise of Washington Mutual these suitors will probably step back, play the role of the vulture and wait for a forced merger by the FDIC.

Right now the lack of trust and the total freezup of intrabank lending are putting a lot of large financial institutions are risk.  Unfortunately, the current bailout bills being debated in Congress will do next to nothing to restore confidence and unfreeze the credit markets.  The true combined losses on balance sheets of these firms are well into the trillions, so throwing $700B at the problem will simply amount to tossing cash into a hurricane.  Once the dominoes start to fall and people wise up to the fact the balance sheets of many of these financials are a fairy tale, nobody is willing to lend, even if they have the money because they are afraid they won't get it back.

 

19 Comments on Three More Massive Banks on the Brink

SEP
27
2008
182,403 Points 12 Featured Posts Outside Blog

The average person doesn't have a clue as to what's going on. They are confused by news reports and don't take time to try to learn the facts, and the fact is: We're in trouble, and congress is doing nothing to help.

5:50pm • #1
383,996 Points 1 Featured Post Outside Blog

Hey Matt,

Thanks for the updated information. It doesn't look good for the banking industry both domestically and abroad.

Sean Allen

5:52pm • #2
616,698 Points 244 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog

Well...Wachovia is my bank!!! I guess I will run down there on Monday and withdrawal my $100!!!

Matt, Are the issues with the foreign banks related to our domestic problems?

5:56pm • #3
208,471 Points 7 Featured Posts Outside Blog

So does the WTO have anything to do with this?

Are these other banks simply collapsing because everyone has borrowed fictional money to each other while at the same time accruing massive amounts of debts without making the balance sheets public?

I would have hoped it was only the corruption in US institutions and that other countries would have limits as to what is legal to do. I just dont get why anyone could let this happen. At least here I understand why it goes on.

5:58pm • #4
1,088,618 Points 57 Featured Posts

Bryant: The issues with the foreign banks has the same cause but the credit bubble which is the root of all of this was world wide not just in the US.  Today the banking/financial systems across every country are so interlinked the once a problem happens one place it instantly ripples to another.

Eau: The banks are collapsing because there is several trillions of bad debt sitting on balance sheets, not just mortgages but corporate debt, credit card debt, etc.  These losses have been hidden through a lot of accounting loop holes so while many institutions have been reporting balance sheets make them look healthy, the reality is they aren't.  People are waking up to the fact very quickly and because there has been no transparency, no one knows who's really insolvent so nobody will lend to anybody.  In addition the steps regulators, the US Treasury and Federal Reserve have kept "changing" the rules to the game, so nobody knows what to do.

 

 

6:09pm • #5
208,471 Points 7 Featured Posts Outside Blog

Thats what i was thinking. It just didnt seem sane. Of course leave it to the corporations to produce so much greed it kills them.

6:11pm • #6
3 Featured Posts

I am waiting to see who the 24 (or 26) companies being investigated are by the FBI for this debacle.

6:42pm • #7

Ruth- Give you a clue.... Half are already closed more than likely.

Matt- The fed wants $700B because thats what Chase, Citi, and BoA will need after buying up all these other companies dirt cheap (Chase just got WaMu and over $300B in assest for $1.9B??? is that right?)

7:01pm • #8
1,088,618 Points 57 Featured Posts

Chris: Yes, I think you get it.  The super banks left after the weak are gobbled up are going to get ready to unload a lot of "assets" before they get indigestion.

7:15pm • #9
144,794 Points 13 Featured Posts

Just had buyers ask me today how this impacts them on the local level.  Things are happening so fast, it is so confusing for them. 

Your recent posts have been very helpful.  Thanks for putting all of this effort in.

7:31pm • #10
582,885 Points 95 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog Hit Router

Matt I found this website today so folks can check out their own banks, http://www2.fdic.gov/idasp/main_bankfind.asp  I checked my local bank and it is fine. I know we don't like links in post so feel free to delete. :)

7:36pm • #11
491,637 Points 41 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog Hit Router

Matt-interestingly enough I have two buyers right now who are thinking of pullling out funds from poorly performing funds and paying cash for investment properties.  They are thinking that the income from the rent and future appreciation in the properties will be better than what their money is doing now.  I don't give financial advise and have told them to talk with their financials advisors first and make sure they are in agreement.

7:47pm • #12
146,398 Points 1 Featured Post Outside Blog

"Current bailout bills being debated in Congress will do next to nothing to restore confidence and unfreeze the credit markets". ---Yes everybody knows but the government. I wonder what is going wrong.

8:19pm • #13

Barney Frank, Chris Dodd, and Chuck Schumer should be placed in public stockades in front of the capitol building for all to see.

Lisa Rogers
9:00pm • #14
596,564 Points 34 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog Hit Router

I don't think it helps when people panic and rush to pull their money out of a troubled bank. 

And I wonder if the skids could get greased if the bad debt looked like it wasn't on the table anymore.

9:32pm • #15
173,945 Points 17 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog

Matt,

You have become my go-to-guy for what's happening with the bail out.

11:26pm • #16
SEP
28
2008
1,088,618 Points 57 Featured Posts

Update on the Wachovia situation:

Wachovia takeover rests on bail-out

Basically bidders are holding off for the details of the bailout, to know how much of the toxic loans on Wachovia's balance sheet they will be able to offload.  No bailout, probably means no sale.

3:11pm • #18

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Matt Heaton

Bothell, WA

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Timu Corp - CEO, ActiveRain - Co-founder

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