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When Will Real Estate Prices Hit Rock Bottom?

By
Real Estate Agent with ALRG Inc

I am predicting that we will reach a bottom sometime in 2012.  There will be a period where prices begin to stabilize as we finish flushing out the immense amounts of foreclosures that will be accumulated in the next years.  We will not see noticeable appreciation for at least 7 years.  The only people who SHOULD be buying right now are those who plan on holding on to their properties for at least 10 years.

If you are well versed in seller finance and lease option techniques you can buy anytime and still make it a profitable deal by selling the home using these strategies.

My personal strategy is to wait at least another 2 years, buy up what ever I can and hold on to them for a long time.  Then sell them on a Lease with an Option to Purchase, also know as, Rent to Own to maximize profits.

Don't believe everything you see on the tube because they will say "real estate is making a comeback" many, many more times before it actually does.  You can't really believe anyone who makes a living selling homes when they say that the best time to buy is NOW, I know I wouldn't. 

I have very savvy colleagues who are buying up everything in sight because they genuinely feel we are at the bottom.   They can definitely cash flow at these prices but I am waiting for the real estate market to come down another 10% to 20%.  I would love feedback from anyone who thinks that we are at the bottom already and those who are personally buying investment property.

Mike Jones
SUNSTREET MORTGAGE, LLC (BK-0907366, NMLS 145171) - Tucson, AZ
Mike Jones NMLS 223495

Tony,

Having lived through the late '80s, (and being an old fart) I'm predicting that we'll see the upside in less than a year if McCain/Palin are elected.  If the Democrats win Congress and the Presidency, we'll have some tinkering that will make your prediction come true.

Mike in Tucson

Oct 01, 2008 10:14 PM
Tony Lopez
ALRG Inc - San Diego, CA

Thanks for the comments Mike!

I really hope that you are correct.  But I really do not think that choosing between Pepsi or Coke is going to have that much of an impact on the housing market or the overall economy.

I believe that there is an elite group of individuals that controls the dollar, media, and pretty much the American way of life.  We just passed a $700 billion bailout that in reality will turn into into more like $2.5 trillion.  This bill was passed using one of the most widely used tactics which is "fear".  By scaring the American people the government can implement pretty much anything even if it is against our Constitutional Rights.  A great example of this is the Patriot Act.  Now if we would have voted for someone like Ron Paul who is a Constitutionalists, there would be some hope.  Unfortunately the media does not even give him the time or day because he speaks the truth.

Very interesting times ahead.

 

 

 

Oct 03, 2008 06:25 AM
Richard Ives
Chicago, IL

Welcome to Active Rain Tony.

Oct 15, 2008 09:21 AM
Mike Jones
SUNSTREET MORTGAGE, LLC (BK-0907366, NMLS 145171) - Tucson, AZ
Mike Jones NMLS 223495

Tony,

Ron Paul is looking pretty good right now, isn't he?

Mike in Tucson

Oct 15, 2008 11:18 AM
Angelia Garcia
Pure Realtors - Dallas, TX

I like the way you think.  I am adding you as an associate.

Nov 11, 2008 03:06 PM
Mike Jones
SUNSTREET MORTGAGE, LLC (BK-0907366, NMLS 145171) - Tucson, AZ
Mike Jones NMLS 223495

Tony,

I commented on this before the election; boy, was I off target!  Time for you to blog again, my friend!

Mike in Tucson

Feb 07, 2009 03:17 AM
Tony Lopez
ALRG Inc - San Diego, CA

Hi Mike,

I wrote this blog in September when people were already jumping all over real estate here in San Diego.  My good friend who is also a realtor and has been in the business for over 5 years was debating with me at the time and he was postive that we were pretty close to bottom.  He was convinced because his indicator was that if a property could rent out for more than what the mortgage is then prices couldn't go lower.  So he bought a 2bed/2bath condo for 130k, rents out for $1400/month which seemed like a smokin deal at the time.  Last time I checked those same units were going for under 100k.  Now the question is when will those units be selling for 70k?  Then maybe you can sign me up for one of those, sign me up for two!

Feb 10, 2009 02:59 AM
Mike Jones
SUNSTREET MORTGAGE, LLC (BK-0907366, NMLS 145171) - Tucson, AZ
Mike Jones NMLS 223495

Tony,

If the president gets his way, and it appears he will, we'll be in debt up to our eyeballs.  Hopefully some of that package will help guys like you and me.  At least your buddy has positive cash flow from the purchase.  Now would be the time for him to buy another.

Mike in Tucson

Feb 10, 2009 07:48 AM