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Commercial Absorption Rates – Prince William County – September 30, 2008

By Michael Setunsky

Commercial Real Estate Agent

September 30, 2008 10:43 AM

Commercial Real Estate Absorption Rates for Prince William County are offered as a service of Michael’s Commercial LLC. The monthly absorption rates are categorized by the following Prince William County Zoning Districts:

B-1 (General Business District)
B-2 (Neighborhood Business District)
B-3 (Convenience Retail District
O(L) (Office Low-Rise District)
O(M) (Office Mid-Rise District)
O(H) (Office High-Rise District)
O(F) (Office/Flex District)
M-1 (Heavy Industrial District)
M-2 (Light Industrial District)
M/T (Industrial/Transportation District)

Absorption Rates are established by how many properties have sold during a given period of time (e.g., 365, 180, 90 and 30 days). Absorption rates also allow tracking trends in the market for any given number of days, weeks or months. These trends can indicate whether we may be in a Sellers Market, a Neutral Market or a Buyers Market. A monthly absorption rate of 5-6 is usually considered a Neutral Market. Anything below five is regarded as a Sellers Market and anything above six a Buyers Market.

Sellers Market 1-4 Months Supply
Neutral Market 5-6 Months Supply
Buyers Market 7 Plus Months Supply

The following tables reflect the Monthly Absorption Rates* for respective Zoning Districts in Prince William County ending on September 30, 2008:

Commercial Absorption Rates 9-30-2008

Total Number of Properties on Market. The properties that were available on the market during the reporting period.
Total Number of Sales. The total number of Sold properties during the given reporting period.
Monthly Absorption Rate. The rate at which the Sold properties were absorbed in the market on a monthly basis.
Inventory. The number of available properties as of the report date.
Months Supply. The number of months it will take the properties to sell based on the number of properties that have sold during the reporting period.
Chance of Selling. The rate at which the properties in the inventory will sell based on the percentage of the total properties on the market and the total number of sales.

The tables above indicate that the commercial real estate market in Prince William County has been relatively slow and non existent during this reporting period. The largest inventory of properties is in the General Business (B-1) District with some limited inventory available in the B-2, M-1 and M-2 Zoning Districts.

General Business District – There are currently 25 properties available on the market. No properties have sold during the last 30 days. There is one property Under Contract.
Neighborhood Business District – There is currently one property available on the market. No properties have sold during the last 30 days.
Convenience Retail District – No activity during this reporting period.
Office Low-Rise District – No activity during this reporting period.
Office Mid-Rise District – No activity during this reporting period.
Office High-Rise District – No activity during this reporting period.
Office/Flex District – No activity during this reporting period.
Heavy Industrial District – There are currently three properties available on the market. No properties have sold during the last 30 days.
Light Industrial District – There are currently two properties available on the market. No properties have sold during the last 30 days.
Industrial/Transportation District – No activity during this reporting period.

It is interesting to note that seven properties have sold in all of the commercial districts within the last 365 days. Five sales were in the General Business District and two were in the Light Industrial District. No properties have sold in any of the Commercial Districts within the last 30 days. We are currently in a Buyers Market.

*The market data presented here is compiled from information provided by the Metropolitan Regional Information System.

The information presented here is the author’s own interpretation of the Prince William County Commercial Real Estate market and makes no warranty or claim regarding the usefulness or implications of this information.

Michael Setunsky is the Broker and owner of Michael's Commercial LLC serving the Northern Virginia commercial real estate market. His more than 23 years of experience as a commercial real estate and business broker has earned him the distinction for being one of the top commercial real estate producers in the Mid-Atlantic Region. He also serves on the Mid Atlantic Real Estate Marketing Association's (MAREMA) Board of Directors, and is a Commonwealth of Virginia licensed Instructor. He teaches Pre-licensing, Post Licensing Education, Broker's and Continuing Education courses. Visit his company web site at http://michaelscommercial.com/.