The Canadian real estate economy.

The US economy may be in a troubled state, but what about that of Canada?    This blog is for Canadian real estate and mortgage people who are wondering how the US economy will affect them.

The good news is Canada's housing and financial markets are in much better shape than the United States.  There are a number of key reasons for this.   Canada has not had to deal with highly leveraged sub prime mortgages as in the US.   Canada's banks and financial institutions which hold most of the mortgages are in excellent shape. 

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. (the equivalent to the US Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac) is profitable and has added even more stability to the housing market.  Canada's big banks took over most of the larger financial companies in the late '80's and have avoided the failures of US investment banks (e.g..Bear Sterns, Lehman Brothers and Merrill Lynch.)

Despite that good news, Canada is not immune to problems in the US housing market.   The average price of a home in Canada has doubled since 1996.  Consumer prices have only risen 28% over the same period.

Resource and commodity prices which have kept Canada's economy buoyant may be on the verge of a decline.   Analysts are still waiting to see what effect the American economic downturn will have on Canadian exports to the US.   Here are a few things to watch out for.

- Mortgage and interest rates may not fall, even if the Bank of Canada rate declines.   This is because banks may increase their spreads to make up for losses in the financial industry.

- Banks may make borrowing increasingly difficult leading to a tighter credit squeeze.

- House prices in Canada have dropped by 5% on average, compared with 19% in the US.  Canadian house prices are expected to continue to fall, however not as dramatically as in the US.

- A slowdown in new housing starts has already begun in Canada as job losses have been felt in the manufacturing and forestry sector.  These areas are expected to see further declines especially in Ontario and Quebec.

- As for gas and oil prices it's anbody's guess where they will go. 

- The two bright provinces are Alberta and Saskatchewan where employment is plentiful and demand is greatest for houses.

As a personal note:   I believe Canada's real estate market slowdown will continue, however I do not see an economic meltdown on the horizon....nor do I see the same degree of economic tough times found in the US.  (A personal opinion..)

The sooner house prices bottom out in the US, the sooner the Canadian market will also stabalize.  Do not look for a quick turn around in the US.   Insiders suggest a recovery could take a few years.