The mortgage crisis has finally hit the car business. Yep. dealerships are closing and car sales have plunged by about 35%. And while the temptation may be to think of "gas prices" as the reason, the real reason is "mortgage crisis".

Fast becoming known as CREDIT CATASTROPHE.

Did you know that about 25% of cars used to be "cash sales" that were really just an equityline withdrawal? Those equitylines are long gone, along with the ability to use the "Bank of Home Appreciation" to buy a car.

Combine that with a creditscape that resembles the frozen tundra in Siberia and you begin to get a clue of what's wrong with car sales.

FACT: When you cannot finance a house or a car, demand plummets. Economics 101: Less demand, lower sales and lower prices. Any car that loses its ability to be financed (for example, a car with a salvage title) loses about half of its value.

If all this sounds familiar (like what's going on with the housing industry) don't be surprised. 

With one obvious exception: In the car business being "upside down" is just business as usual. No one freaks out and walks away from their car just because they owe more than its worth. Heck, people need to get to work after all.

You know what they say: You can sleep in your car, but you can't drive your house.

Maybe we should consider having dealers who take trade-ins on houses. No one would need to have a foreclosure, and the bank wouldn't need to market the houses. Homeowners would still choke at the LOW price the dealer would pay, but they would have an escape hatch, and could go rent a nice house for a lot less than the house payments.

Many of you know our family owns an auto leasing/financing company. Yours truly cut her teeth in the lending world by financing an endless stream of luxury cars to Silicon Valley hot shots (during technology boom), then real estate hot shots (during the housing boom). That was life before the mortgage business/crisis, but after 20 years in the car business, I think I understand the economics of it pretty well.

Now if only I could understand hot shots OR Porsches....which remain a total mystery to me.

It was obvious that it would only be a matter of time until the car business crashed. Each night as husband  and I walk the Akita after dark (if you have an Akita you understand the after dark part) he gives me the latest on financing cars from the auto leasing world, and I give him the latest on financing houses. We compare notes.

The writing has been on the wall for awhile.

As existing equitylines became frozen, and new equitylines became impossible to get, car buyers had to rely on a different kind of financing. Many just chose to keep driving the clunker instead, or use other financing. That was okay for awhile, but then auto lenders started to tighten guidelines.

They decided that they did not want to lend to borrowers with "neg am" mortgages. "Automatic approvals" (their version of stated income) became obsolete. Certain vehicles (models that lose value quickly) became impossible (too risky) to finance. Subprime auto loans disappeared.  Lenders (like Wells Fargo) just said enough is enough and got out of the car loan business altogether.

And the number of lenders shrunk. In a big way. Especially those willing to lease cars (since this financing depends on the value of the car holding up).

All of this got very little press because hello? There is a mortgage crisis hogging the spotlight these days. But it is a very big deal because it demonstrates a few of things worth understanding.

1.  Getting any kind of financing will become more difficult. For a long time to come. Get your credit fixed. Make sure your income can be documented. Save your cash. Maintain the old clunker and the old homestead.


2.  We don't need to worry about "inflation" when it comes to purchases that need to be financed
. Lack of financing options will keep houses and cars cheap. Buy low, if you can. If you need a used truck, go get it now. Those with the cash win the game.


3.  Far fewer players that loan money. Huge losses in the credit market. More and more pent up demand.
Do these things lead to lower rates, or higher rates? Economics 101.

 

 

Written by Janet Guilbault, Mortgage Lending Expert Based Out of the San Francisco Bay Area

 

 

 

 

 

 

 
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17 Comments on You Can Sleep in Your Car, But You Can't Drive Your House: Should We Bailout The Car Companies, Too?

OCT
02
2008
1 Featured Post

Great post, Janet. I know some builders that would probably go for your idea of trade in houses.

9:39am • #1
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Peter: Problem being builder must have the ablity to roll over negitive equity into the new house and still get it financed! Okay, then he just needs to reduce the price of the house he is selling to compensate. What do you think?

Works in the car business, after all.

9:44am • #2
357,393 Points 11 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog

What a depressing but true blog.  My husband is an ex-car dealer.  They sold their franchise about 4 or 5 years ago and says now that they got out in the nick-of-time.

9:48am • #3
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Don't mean to depress you Barbara. I agree that your husband got out right in time. It is a struggle out there. In kind of a weird way, it has helped our auto leasing company. Dealers have NO lenders left that will lease. They are calling my husband to do the financing.

His niche has become so small that he is getting more business. Go figure. He also does not inventory cars, and is strictly a finance company. I wouldn't want to have 50 $30,000 cars that sat on a lot while everyone wondered how they could buy Christmas presents this year.

9:58am • #4
195,861 Points 13 Featured Posts Outside Blog

How about we focus on saving something important to me and millions in my generation, SOCIAL SECURITY!  I find it awful coincidental that since we are ALL OF A SUDDEN in a crisis that no one saw coming (yeah right) that we can just find $700 billion to bail everyone out?  Why can't they do this for social security too?

10:02am • #5
2 Featured Posts

The similarities between the rise and fall of auto financing and mortgage lending is incredible. Having worked F&I at a dealership 20 years ago, creative financing using 'stroke loans' and mortgage refinancing to get deals bought was a regular occurrence. 'Up's' identified as cash conversions were avoided by all 5 F&I people at the dealership. No money to be made there. Although when someone converted one, the bragging began! Shortly after I left the business, the 'sub prime' lenders entered the fold. Creativity in financing was taken to a new level under the thereoy that people will always make their car payments. If you could fog a mirror, and had a few bucks in your pocket, you could buy a car. Sound familiar?

10:06am • #6

great post Janet... well done.  you ready to guest blog this on my mortgage chili site??  let me know when you are ready to jump in!

10:14am • #7
4 Featured Posts

Janet

I was having dinner with a friend a couple of days ago, where he confirmed that a friend went to buy a Tahoe; great credit, income, significant down payment; when they were asked 'would you like to pay cash because we don't have available financing?'.

I understand the tightening in mortgage; frankly, I expected in cars, but never to the point of having to pay cash. I already know what that will do to the value of those vehicles.

As always, you have great analogies to share.

11:02am • #8
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Bill: The lending crisis was a lot slower to hit the car business, but I warned my husband that he would soon be needing to document income and that intense scrutiny was just around the corner.

After all, if people think it is okay to walk away from a house, the only thing standing in their way from walking away from a car is they need to get to work! LOL

Dealers than only used Wells Fargo had no financing left. Since our company is an auto finance company, we made it our business to have lots of lenders and treat them like gold. I am sure many dealerships did not have this same attitude.

2:04pm • #9
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Scott: You and I have this unique perspective, don't we? I remember those days in the car business, but boy have things changed. No more fog the mirror clients.

I often got finance deals because the customers were so turned off by pushy F & I guys and came to sweet little velvet me to get their auto loan. Not that YOU were ever that kind of F & I guy.

One thing the car business taught me was the concept of never fearing the competition. It was so dog eat dog, and how low will you go? that when I entered the mortgage business they wanted to know how I could laugh off my competitors.

Hey, I'm from the car business!

2:09pm • #10
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Michael: I never thought about it that way, but I definately see your point. How many more bailouts does this set the stage for?

Chili-Chris: I am having a hard time keeping up with all the writing I need to do. I woke up at 4 AM today just to squeek in this blog. Had a caffine high before it ever got light.

2:11pm • #11
844,766 Points 213 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog Hit Router

So is this a good time to trade in my 1004 Sequoia?

3:49pm • #12
149,246 Points 89 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog

Yes Lenn, life is short and it is easy to tell there is a red convertible person somewhere deep inside you waiting to get out. Please do not tell me that said "1004" is silver. I say you are way to spicy to be driving this car.

Speaking of getting out, opps. That's right, you don't get out often. When you do, you might as well go crazy.

You think I'm kidding but I'm dead serious. Let's put the fun back in funding.

4:49pm • #13
257,492 Points 14 Featured Posts Outside Blog

Yuck.  I hate thinking about what is going on in the real world & facing the music.  What's next?  We can't finance our ATV's & boats? 

9:55pm • #14
149,246 Points 89 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog

Kristin, I know we would all prefer not to think about the real world. But knowledge is power, and better to line up your ducks than to be surprised. Some dealerships no longer offer financing. Strange, but true.

11:27pm • #15
OCT
03
2008

Janet

 

we can disregard if you like, can i use your info, tweeked of course, yet still giving you credit?

8:32am • #16

Roger traded in his escalade at just the right time.

8:27pm • #17

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Janet Guilbault California Mortgage Banker/Broker

Walnut Creek, CA

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Address: 3201 Danville Blvd, Suite 195, Alamo, CA, 94507

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