Real Estate Blog - Has Your Market Slowed to A Crawl or Died?

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Has Your Market Slowed to A Crawl or Died?

Has your business died? I noticed in the last few weeks Internet leads in real estate in several markets has slowed to a crawl. Actually it seems like it has died! I was wondering if the market is spooked, no pun intended for the upcoming Halloween! Each time the government announced a bailout, a bank failure or the "Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac Fix"....buyers became more scarce. I really think Congress has spooked the market along wiht the media in recent months. I know it isn't just me. I am hearing this from full time agents, brokers, inspectors, builders, closing attorneys, and mortgage professionals. The only exception that I am hearing about is that some high end builders are selling some custom homes - all cash. I suppose the rich feel the safest place to have their money is in real estate as opposed to the banks where no one knows what tomorrow will bring!

Since the mantra in real estate these days is "Real Estate is Local" what's happening in your markets? Are you getting real buyers? Tire kickers? Investors? Bottom Feeders? More listing calls? Foreclosure inquiries? Is anything productive occurring? Is your market improving or still declining?

Sales in Atlanta have slowed to pre - 2000 levels, inventory is still very high especially for this time of year, condos, and town home sales have fallen off the charts.

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Posted by Jim Crawford ~ Atlanta Real Estate-ABR E-PRO on 10/05/2008 01:27 AM

Comments (178)

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Originally posted at: Atlanta Real Estate | Atlanta Housing News for Real Estate: Has Your Market Slowed to A Crawl or Died?

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178 Comments on Has Your Market Slowed to A Crawl or Died?

OCT

2008

Jim, past Aug-Sept I think we are in the crawl stage here.

Gary Woltal - REALTOR® Dallas Ft. Worth (Keller Williams Realty) I think slower than a crawl here.

Its still boppin here in vegas jim. more outta country calls and east coast people moving here.

Hang in there jim, nobody sells atlanta better then you!

Steve Harless "Your Las Vegas Real Estate Connection" (REALTY WORLD LUXURY HOMES - 702.217.1680) Thanks Steve.

In Searcy AR we are saved by gas exploration. New folks are everwhere and some buy. But it does seem slower this month.

Internet leads have slowed down about 50% last month. Thank goodness for referrals. ~Rita

Barbara S. Duncan ABR, CRS, GRI, e-PRO Searcy AR (RE/MAX Advantage) Well in the past few weeks we have been without gas in Atlanta. You really need to get around with a car here. Another item is that DPA were very big in Atlanta in the last few years. Without the 100% no money down programs, and Down Payment assistant programs... Atlanta had a major chunk of buyers totally evaporate!

Jim,

I thought things picked up a month or so ago. I actually had some bidding wars over three properties and my customers lost. But the fact that New York City (I am in a suburb one hour out of Manhattan) has slowed a bit, scares me. Our benefit is that we are bedroom community within one hour of downtown New York City.

I cannot understand it. The "Bail Out" (I like to call it a loan) should encourage those buyers sitting on the fence. The mortgage rates are low and prices are low, what are they thinking of. The rich are buying because they know that real estate will come back, it historically always does. The best place to put your money is in real estate, and that is what our government just did. They will buy up the foreclosures to ease the money crunch on the banks so that they can get back into the business of lending money. When the market rebounds those properties that the government owns will be sold. They will realize a profit and between the pay back and the profit we should be back in good shape. I don't know if I am dreaming, but that is what should happen. You would think that the general public would take the hint. If the rich are still buying real estate you would think that the rest of the buying poplulation would follow the lead. I hope they do...and soon.

Kenna & Co. Highlands Ranch Luxury Homes The Internet rferrals have allowed us to survive. We recently closed 3 good deals, and had a half dozen referrals! They have saved the year.

Carol Kope (Keller Williams Realty) It will be interesting. Credit has been so way over extended I do not know what will occur!

I'm a little less than a hour west of NYC right on the rail line. I've noticed prices dropping but there's been plenty of buyers out there looking ang buying. I've had 4 offers on one of my listings.

My area has not had the same "new construction" boom which may have glutted the market in some area.

this month I moved offices, went on a week vacation, and spent 2 days at convention. I thought I was having a slow month since I was pre occupied with all that....but another agent said her phones were very quiet this past 2 weeks, and others mentioned the same....Now that the credit crisis is hitting main street, EVERYONE is taking note, and stepping back to assess before making any major moves....Hopefully with the bill passed, things will look brighter from Wall street down to Main Street!

Jim, I thought it was Ike but yes my leads and phone are eery quiet. We had a double whammy down here. I was so bummed that I wasn't getting cable but then when I got it 2 weeks later I realized that maybe I was better off in hurricane mode. Well not really I do want to know what's going on in the world but a lot changed during my hiatus with Ike.

It's slow, but sellers in MD have finally gotten the message about price.

It "feels" slow, but we lost a week when Hurricane Ike's winds blew through and many here were without electricty for days and cleaning up downed trees and fixing roofs. Then we were recouping from that when the banks started failing. Have had very few showings since the hurricane. I had put 3 homes in-contract before it hit, so those are closing this week. So I'll live a few more months. ;-)

My sales are up over 40% but I'm not taking anything for granted - I'm just working extra hard. My WP blog has helped immensely this year and it's why my volume is up.

Peter Di Eduardo (ReMax Properties Unlimited) Thank you. That is what I like to hear!

Pat Tasker (Shorewest Realtors I hope so. They still did not tell us what all of a sudden triggered the bailout. Testimony the week before in front of Congress, they were saying there was a chance of recession.

Marchel Peterson Spring TX Real Estate E-Pro ABR (Results Realty) I can understand the hurricane! Are you getitng the help down there? Remember the government told us no more treatment like "Katrina!"

Craig W. Barrett - Hughesville MD Real Estate (RE/MAX 100) Good, I will take you up on it. I will be in Hughesville next week to look around

Elaine Reese, REALTOR® in central Ohio (Real Living HER, Worthington Ohio) We had 3 closing the week before this all occured and 5 referral checks. Then it died!

Jim,

The bailout stuff has caused everyone to stall and adopt a 'wait and see' attitude!!! Let's get back to work!!! Thanks, Fran

Fran 'The Title Man' Gaspari Title Insurance-PA & NJ (Patriot Land Transfer, Inc.) I need buyers and homes I can sell first.

OCT

2008

The good news in Lafayette Square is that inventory is declining, median prices are up, highest prices are up, etc. The only bad news is the cumulative days on market are also up slightly. So, yes, the local market is doing fine overall. We do have buyers - but the buyers now have a longer buying cycle.

Here in the NC Piedmont Triad area, starting to see a slowdown, buyers are in a "see what happens with economy" mode.

Small Colorado town outside of Colorado Springs - Too much inventory, much of it foreclosures and short sales, very few qualified buyers, even those that should be! Tough way to try to make a living these days....

Debi

Seattle is in crawl mode. We always get hit last and I expect it to remain slow until next Spring at the earliest.

Ryan Shaughnessy (Gilded Age Sales, LLC) Sounds like your market is doing well. Way to go!

Brad and Angela Lawrence - NC HomeTeam - Greensboro - Winston Salem - High Point (NC HomeTeam - ERA Premier Realty) I can understand the buyers. Rates are great, but nothing to get worked up over. If we had lower rates right now, and low prices...a lot of this inventory would dissappear overnight.

Woodland Park Real Estate, Colorado - Debi Boucher (Realtor-Prudential Professional REALTORS, ASP REALTOR) Sounds like here! Yes it is not easy.

Paul McFadden (Exact Financial Group) I am not sure when things will pick up here. New contracts in all classes have fallen off the charts!

Jim Crawford ~ Atlanta Real Estate-ABR E-PRO (RE/MAX Greater Atlanta)

Thanks for the 'adding the other person's link' idea. Nice touch ;)

Debi

Woodland Park Real Estate, Colorado - Debi Boucher (Realtor-Prudential Professional REALTORS, ASP REALTOR) Anytime. That is what I always try to do! This way you know who I am answering, and other readers can view you. I think it is a great way to cross reference comments.

Jim, I was talking with several agents in my office the other day discussing the same thing. It seems like the air was let out of the balloon right after school started. This was before the national financial crisis and start of our new socialist government. Who knows where we go from here?

David Slavin, ABR, SRES RE/MAX Grand, Katy, TX (RE/MAX Grand) This is an election year gimmick. Nothing sells as good as fear. In real estate 101 we all know the fundamentals of Block Busting. It is an easy sale once persons are afraid of possible consequences. It is illegal, highly immoral and race baiting. A whole neighborhood can change overnight.

Well this bailout bil is nation busting. Everyone gives in real quick because they believe the government will save them. Never trust your government. Persons trusted other big governments and look what happened in Germany! BTW, when it was happening in Germany, liberals here and abroad said "Trust them!" Sound familiar?

The sad thing, this isn't ending, it is just starting. They surrendered America as we knew it yesterday!

You're right! America has now changed forever. When other countries want Obama to win should be a huge red flag for us.

David Slavin, ABR, SRES RE/MAX Grand, Katy, TX (RE/MAX Grand) Endorsed by Al Jazeera! It is really true, they want him to be president! What does that tell you? I have a friend of mine that is from Iran, and he told me the governement wants him in office, because they know they will have 8 years that they can do whatever they want. How come Americans don't get it?

You are right Jim. I am not getting leads from my website like I use to. People are just scared to do anything right now. Only God knows what's going to happen next. Great post.

Hi Jim, things are still moving here in Albuquerque but starting to slow. We still have the tire kickers, not that many foreclosures, some short sales. Unfortunately, I'm getting pretty burned out, not so much about the market per se, but with all the contention in the financial markets. I think it's really taken a toll on me. I tend to absorb other people's anxieties. But in my heart of hearts, I KNOW that buying real estate, esp. now, is the smartest thing someone with solid credit and money to put down can do. I've kind of lost my spark and am trying to figure out how to get it back at this point. After things have blown over is when it hits me. Can't imagine how you are coping with this. At least we have gas and our weather is gorgeous. Tomorrow is going to be better I just know it.

Jim - it has slowed here, even the FSBO's are disappearing, down to about 20% of what they were in May. However, the September around here is showing it close to flat with August in a couple of the counties.

But, I agree, each bailout has appeared to have the opposite effect of what they were intended to have.

Lanre Folayan "Buy Washington DC Real Estate" (Exit Premier Realty") Thanks for sharing. I am heading towards DC this week to take a look around. It is so dead here, I can take a week off without worry.

Alyce Martin (Keller Williams Realty) I guess it is no consolation that don't worry, it isn't just you. It is hard staying positive and that is why there are no buyers. The news and media are beating us down in every story.

Mike Saunders (Keller Williams Realty - Greater Athens) FMLS statistics for August sales here were under the year 2000 levels with detached single family homes not even more than 4000 sales. Compared to August in previous years, it is a free fall. Condos and town homes were only at 550 for almost 24 counties. I think September is going to be a major drop from that.

I do agree that each bailout, each fix to the economy took more business out of the equation.

Jim - we don't use FMLS here, just GAMLS and AAAR MLS. Using the AAAR MLS (which has just been upgraded to Navica within the last year so data older than that is suspect and incomplete) where most of the sales are tracked in Clarke/Oconee/Oglethorpe & Madison counties, the downward curve has been flattenning. Now, does that mean it will continue? I have a feeling that the curve will steepen out here for the next couple of months, at least until people figure out what the heck all this bailout really means.

Jim, a couple of weeks ago, our Sunday paper interviewed some octogenerians about the Great Depression (intimating that that's where our economy was going...)and they were talking about eating beans, taping their shoes together and wearing gunny sacks and how people now just aren't going to be able to make it because we're too soft. WELL, IF THAT DOESN'T PUT THE FEAR OF GOD INTO YOU, NOTHING WILL!!! Hey, want to buy a house? I guess I can hand out my cards at the soup lines. Sheeeeeeesh. Just how is this helpful?

Mike Saunders (Keller Williams Realty - Greater Athens) I agree. We need to step back for a bit and see what is happening.

Alyce Martin (Keller Williams Realty) LOL! It is funny, but sobering. The reality can be very scary. This is not a normal recession. Sorry folks, I am not pessimistic, I am realistic. I get calls form agents and brokers around the country. They all have not seen anything like this. That tells me something. As far as recessions go, I've lived through a few of them, but this is different. The magnitude of this is much greater. The best way to describe it....is sort of like living in a 100 year flood plain and getting that 100 year flood.

OCT

2008

The past 2 weeks have been slow. We are working with a handful of buyers but they are very cautious.

Pensacola is holding, actives are starting to come down, a few more pendings but we have been a 2004 and holding. I look for another 18% drop in prices and by 2010 Feburary we should start leveling and see icreases by June 2010. As long as congress will stay in recess till then.

Jim,

Thanks for the post. Finally, my market is picking up. The height of the season is over and I am now seeing increased traffic. I stepped outside of the box and distributed flyers on Friday afternoon and Saturday morning for a Saturday open house (traditionally held on Sunday's). I got over fifteen families and should close out my development this week. That's amazing for this area in this market!

Jim, you know me well enough by now to know that I love a good laugh. It was hard for me to even break a smile in my office today. One of the agents came over to me and said, "David, you've got to see this to believe it". I walked over to his desk and, on his computer, he had pulled up some CMA's and starting point prices in the MLS. He also had notes to compare on the same properties which were examined just a couple of days ago. The changes caused my heart to sink. The losses in value are staggering beyond comprehension, with many exceeding 40% below the property assessors values, administered for the city and county tax bases. He looked up at me, almost with tears in his eyes, and said, "David, how can we survive? The country is in a depression, David." He began, in almost insane fashion, to pull up listing after listing after listing, moderately priced homes to seven figures, to show me how the prices were plummeting like bricks falling from a skyscraper. One after another, and he kept shouting, "My God, look David, look David, look at this one, look at this one, look at this one, look at this one", and on and on until I couldn't take it anymore. I couldn't say anything. I got in my car and drove away. My friend has been an agent for thirty-five years.

I was looking at the Garn-St Germain act of 1982, Jim. Review it when you have the time. I hope you'll have a fine week ahead.

We actually had a phenomenal September for sales in my office (I am the broker/owner), but October looks to be quite slow. We are still getting a good number of leads, but at least half of them want to wait to act until the spring. Just my two cents from Austin, Texas.

Hi Jim,

I work with agents and brokers all over the country. This is the most unusual market most of them have ever seen. There are pockets of strong home sales activity and, at the same time, there are markets where agents are being financially forced to take second jobs. Earlier this week I talked with an agent in North Atlanta who sold 18 houses last month! He contacted me because he wants even MORE internet buyers. As I'm sure you know, that's where NAR says most of the action is now.

Respectfully,

Bruce

Mont. County, MD, my primary market is 60% of the SOLDs in 2000.

It's everywhere.

Jim,

It is pretty quiet in Metro Detroit. Homes are still selling but it seems the showing calls have slowed down.

Jim

I can't speak for others but here in Central Florida, Ithings are definitely picking up! More cash buyers, and clean deals.

This will be one the best year out of the last three- since we were the first to suffer from the bursting bubble, perhaps we are the first to see signs of life emerging from the ashes. Ihope so for everyone out there.

Good luck and sell well

Jim,

The month of September was the slowest I've ever seen here. I ran the stats for my areas of practice but don't think I even want to write about them. My internet leads have slowed considerably. Atlanta is a huge feeder market for Hilton Head so I guess we shouldn't expect to see many folks relocating here if they can't sell their Atlanta homes.

Hi Jim

Charlotte is crawing right now.

Relatively new to AR and learning all the time, can I ask you where and how do you compose your AR blog, looks very professional.

Thanks
Rich

Charlotte NC

I guess we have to go back to the mantra "all real estate is local". I seem to have a good selection of buyers who are making decisions. I have written three offers in the past week and am expecting to write a fourth one this week. The issue for me seems to be getting people to accept the offers. Sellers are still holding on to the notion that the market is going to come back or that their home is worth more than the one that sold 6 months ago. I'm not sure listing agents are doing a good job prior to putting a home on the market of making the reality of the market sink in.

Jim-

I was busy, not crazy busy but busy, until a few weeks ago. My calls & internet leads have slowed since the "crisis" a couple of weeks ago. Agents in my office have said the same thing. I am hoping once we figure out the REAL impact of the "Bail Out/Recovery Bill" we will have people back in the market.

My internet activity stats show a dramatic decrease over the past several weeks. I attribute it to the instability of the financial market and buyers taking a much understood wait and see what happens attitude. Although I did not favor the bailout bill I think with its passage we will start to see a little more stability and some consumers will regain their confidence.

Jim,

You're right! We need some real estate 'ghostbusters' to put the kabash on this spooked market!!! Thanks, Fran

Jim...

My Internet leads stopped exactly at the time gasoline became scarce. Coincidence? I think not! -Richard Weisser (My name disappeared for some reason?)

Jim,

Even in our market where there is a lot of turnover and a strong first time homebuyer market, things are definitely slower. Our listings are getting fewer showings, there are less internet leads we are receiving and our office floor is very slow. The flip side is that our properly priced listings are still getting traffic and offers though.

My leads this last two weeks on my web site is down 60% and traffic is down 35% so yes it has slowed down here again.

Hi, Jim. As you know, I've been in real estate for 4 decades, and as recently as early summer I was "on fire." No more - Internet leads have stopped (is it the market or what I'm writing about?) and my sellers are living in the past. 'Can't say I blame them, because I'd like my property value to be frozen in time 2 years ago, as well. Our retirement fund, as well.

We are getting business here but it is slower and I know of agents who have quit altogether or taken part time jobs.

Here in WV things have slowed a bit and I do here more clients asking about foreclosures. We have started trying to get back to the basics of real esate and prospecting. The leads are not coming in, we have to go get them! Good luck!

Patty Carroll, ASP®, SRES® & Scott Carroll - RE/MAX, Vancouver WA (RE/MAX Equity Group) I think that buyers are correct in being cautious. There is a lot of news to digest. I also blame politicians for playing the fear card for elections!

Charles Stallions Real Estate Services Inc Maybe we can get Congress to stay recessed... I want to thank you for your market news.

William Collins, Broker Associate (ERA Queen City Realty) William that is incredible! Thanks for sharing!

David Saks - Real Estate Broker (The Real Estate Mart of Tennessee, Inc.) I can beleive it. I sold a home last year, and noticed that the only home sold in that neighborhood since last summer...sold for 140K less.

Jason Crouch, Broker - Austin Texas Real Estate (Austin Texas Homes, LLC) That still sounds pretty good. I can understand that a normal buyer would want to step back and wait until a little dust settles before buying.

Is this the calm before the storm...I have heard that the government sent banks letters stating that they have to get rid of all their inventory by the end of the year.....don't know if that is true or not... :)

Jim, For starters, I am glad you have received so many responses. Way to put it out there. In Nashville, Everything has slowed. My business is up only because I am out there askinng for it. My mantra right now is "just one loan".

Inventory high

Sales low

No good news here

Not Yet Licensed - Thanks! We had 3 deals and 5 referrals for last month. The 5 deals are Internet.

Lenn Harley, Homefinders.com, MD & VA Real Estate I agree Lenn, it is the same per-centage here.

Russ Ravary - Michigan Homes for sale - Michigan Real estate & Mortgage info (Remerica Hometown One) According to this, you are not alone! Thanks for sharing.

Allison Stewart REALTOR ®St. Cloud Florida (Florida Pines Realty, Inc) That sounds very encouraging. I wonder if age is a factor. Retirees? Baby boomers etc?

Diane Bell, Hilton Head Real Estate, Bluffton (Charter 1 Real Estate, Hilton Head, Bluffton, SC) Sales have slowed tremendously. Two of the properties I sold this year took over 1 year to sell.

Rich Ferretti (Southern Winds Realty-Mint Hill North Carolina) Thanks. I do my blog myself.

The Killeen Fort Hood market is off about 7% for the same period last year, but the last month has been very quiet after a really booming July. Plenty of time to revamp systems that need updating, to do planning for next year, and to take some time off! We know we will have troops returning in December and January who will generate sales, and we're hopeful that once the election is over we'll see increasing activity.

Cindy Jones-Northern Virginia Real Estate & Military Relocation Services (RE/MAX Allegiance #1 RE/MAX Company in the World) Interesting observation. I do not think the current markets will be coming back to the levels they were at in price and terms. The listing agents need to be more experienced and educate the sellers.

Laura Karambelas-Chicagoland Real Estate (Baird & Warner) Many agents are telling me the same. Since the bailout bills, it has progressively slowed.

JoEllen Stranger-Thorsen, Lake County, FL (Catherine Hanson Real Estate, Inc.) I pray you are right.

Fran 'The Title Man' Gaspari Title Insurance-PA & NJ (Patriot Land Transfer, Inc.) I think the politicains have spooked the market on purpose. The timing was uncanny.

Fran 'The Title Man' Gaspari Title Insurance-PA & NJ (Patriot Land Transfer, Inc.) Gasoline and our water isses have not helped.

After the Spring/Summer rush it always slows a bit. However; I feel that because of the economy, people losing jobs and not sure what "tomorrow" may bring has slowed business every where for the most part.

The good news is that there are always people out there that have to buy or sell. Of course "buyers" would be more favorable right now. Like most have said, this is definately where referrals hopefully will kick in.

Until Next Time;

Adell

Christopher and Stephanie Somers - Realtors - Philadelphia Real Estate (RE/MAX Affiliates) Homes correctly priced will sell.

The last two weeks were slow, but still getting showings just went to a crawl the last two weeks. Now that the whole fear is off the TV, hopeing it picks up more. But, then we don't have gas lines like you all in Atlanta. Is it getting better?

Laura Jefferson..Lexington's Realtor (Asset Realty) Thanks. Your web statisics are similar to mine.

Margaret Woda, Maryland Real Estate (RE/MAX VISION) Margaret, this is what is gripping everyone. Life is compounded with loss in stocsk, pensions, SEP IRA's, bank issues, bad press, and persons wondering if they will be paying more taxes next year. In the mean time it is wait and see.

Shirley Parks San Antonio Real Estate & Luxury Homes (RE/MAX Realty Advantage, San Antonio, TX) In Atlanta a lot of agents are looking for full time jobs if they can find them.

Jessica Graley (Old Colony, Realtors) Thank you so much for sharing.

Here in South Alabama, sales are pretty slow. In today's newspaper real estate section, one local RE company is advertising an upcoming "Sale" where there will be a list of homes for "up to 10% off" if under $500K and over that will be at least 5% off. Truth is, most offers are coming in intially at 20-30% off list to open negotiations anyway.

Konnie MAC Northern Virginia Real Estate (Konnie McKee ) It would be scary if they did. That could create an incredible drop in neighborhod prices. I could also believe anything these days.

Mary Ann Daniell, Realtor (Fort Hood Texas Real Estate/Coldwell Banker United, Realtors) That isn't too bad at all.

Here in Denver, we're in reasonably good shape. In fact, I've written three offers this weekend (and it's only Sunday morning) and have been beaten out on two and am probably competing on the third. These are not REO's - they're retail listings. Two of my offers were over full-price on houses that have been on the market for over a month. My own personal residence sold in two weeks, even though the basement was flooded.

So, I'm asking myself - now that I have several ready-to-go buyers --- where'd that Buyer's Market go???

Teresa King, e-PRO Mobile, Daphne & Fairhope,AL (RE/MAX By the Bay) A sign of the times. Several real estate companies in Atlanta have been doing company wide open houses. The problem? No one is attending. Gas was scarce for several weeks, and still high @ $3.89 a gallon.

I have a mix of tire kickers and real buyers. They are not totally spooked, but being more conservative in their purchase and in this buying time, they really need to capatalize on all the others who ARE spooked.

Winter Baserva Realtor Atlanta Homes For Sale (The Good Broker) I think if there are cash buyers this is is the time to act. Fear is an incredible motivator. There are some great opportunites out there.

Jim,

Karen and I are in our fourth decade as realtors in Northern Virginia, August sales in PW County were up over 100% of August 2007 because prices had dropped 38%. Homeowners who don't have to sell aren't listing so the only thing around are short sales and foreclosures. We have not seen the end of this yet - it will get worse. That isn't doom and gloom - that's the economist in me speaking. I'll be watching the LIBOR rate on Monday. Art

Jim,

Thank you for this post. I just read every single comment and am depressed. Historically my internet traffic and leads have been off the charts. The last couple of weeks there has been a dramatic drop in traffic and the leads have been erratic. The leads are still coming in daily, many we don't even bother with, we know we cannot place them in homes. Still we are fortunate to have a steady stream. I can't even imagine what agents without our internet advantage are doing for business right now.

I thank God on a regular basis for the social networking that we have access to. If we didn't have each other to speak to about what is really going on in our markets across the country, I don't know what the hell we would be thinking right now.

I recently added a buyers agent who is new to the area, but strong. She had to attend a mandatory MLS class at our local board. One of the board execs came in to speak with them and announced that 65% of the agents currently licensed in our area have not made a sale in over a year. We are probably down by close to 50% or more (agents) now, which makes that number staggering.

We are working with buyers, still turning down listings-several a week, and are trying to work with only the most qualified and realistic of buyers. Still, buyers want to shop and see many homes before purchasing, often passing on the very good deal they were seeking because it is too early in their search, only to lose it and not find another that they like as well. Often we have to walk away from buyers because they get lost in an unrealistic fantasy regarding what their money will actually purchase, and our time has to be allocated elsewhere to survive. There are only so many of these buyers that we can carry at any one time. I am seeing this more often lately.

Buyers who want a good deal and don't recognize it when it comes along. It seems to provoke them into believing that there is an even better deal down the road, which isn't always the case.

We are coming into the winter months which is always a much slower time here. The last 3 months has seen a strong spike in business here in Long Beach. Properties began to move, summer is always good here. Many past years, I made the bulk of my annual earnings over the summer months. Sales remain strong compared to earlier this year and last year. Inventory is climbing and a lot of new inventory is now coming onto the market.

Short sales have slowed considerably and the inventory of foreclosed homes has increased dramatically.

Mid range and higher priced neighborhood prices have leveled out over the last 2 or 3 months after an approximate 40% overall decrease; however, neighborhoods plagued by short sales and forclosures are feeling the drag down effect in prices and continue to decline.

I don't know how many agents will be left standing here by spring, I suspect there will be considerably less that we have now.

Agents who have historically done well here are surviving - some barely - but we are still selling real estate.

I spent the night up on the internet doing research. It is 7:30AM and I need to go to sleep. Before I do, I will share something with all of you. Tonight I did a ton of research with the Google Keywords Tool. The tool shows traffic for specific keywords and suggests other keywords and displays their traffic as well. It shows the normal (average) traffic for each keyword as well as the last months traffic.

I searched several markets around the country and the results are interesting. In some markets traffic is up, in some it is down. The consumer is still on the internet, they are still watching. They may not be jumping in to buy right now, but they are lurking. Some will continue to drop out of lurking mode and become buyers and sellers. In every market there are specific keywords that are strong. We should all be paying very close attention to the search habits of todays consumer.

I suggest that you all use this tool and apply it on your blogs for better positioning. It has never been more critical to be FRONT AND CENTER in front of the consumer. If you know where they are searching, you can place yourself directly in their path and route some of that traffic to you.

We are working 10 times as hard to do one tenth of the business we did 3 years ago, but we are surviving. While traffic is down, the quality of our clients is up.

To any Long Beach Realtor reading this, I am seeking an additional buyers agent, if you are interested in surviving and willing to work your butt off, contact me.

I wish you all the very best of luck.

Laurie

Art Kruschka I noticed sales were up in PW county over last year, however compared to the peak they still are way off their highs. I will be in Prince William County this week looking around.

Laurie Manny, Long Beach CA Real Estate (Main Street Realtors Long Beach California) We run the same type of business. I have run a Internet real estate business for 10 years now. I am still making money, but the hours are incredible. Your observations are incredible, and right on the money.

Most agents in real estate today only have a license, they do not buy or sell.

Hopefully the agents that don't work will drop out and the buyers will get better service from those of us that are still in Real Estate!

Very quiet here. In Eastern CT, number of sales are off about 40% over last year. Unfortunately the number of agents is steady.

Richard Shuman P.A. (RE/MAX Select) I agree. I hope they leave real soon. In Atlanta we went from 8500 agents in the late 1990's to 46000. The problem? We are only selling the same amount of homes as we did then

Linda Davis (RE/MAX Realty Group) Close to 40% is what I am hearing from many markets. Yet as you mentioned the number of agents has stayed very high. It is still over 40000 agents in Atlanta.

Jim,

I have the kind of internet results that people (myself included) have always fantasized about. Still slammed into the top of the engines - across the board, through several sites, with breakout results for the long, middle and short tail and drop down results for over a dozen large keywords.

About 2 weeks ago I went back 30 pages in Google for the term LONG BEACH REAL ESTATE to see who was left standing. I was only counting agents in Long Beach Ca. I still had fingers left when I was done.

Either dozens of agents who once had some kind of positioning at around pages 5-10 are in the sandbox, or are just gone, because their sites just are not there.

I found agents who used to be on pages 5-10 starting at page 19.

Some of the results were for agents in the other Long Beach's around the country, but what I saw was an incredible amount of real estate search sites further attempting to get between us and the consumer, on the rise.

There's an internet war going on, I wonder how many have noticed and what they are going to do about it.

Have you noticed that the calls selling leads have stopped and have now become the calls selling referrals? Same people calling though, new angle to fleece us.

I don't know how anybody is surviving without viable lead generation. I would be terrified to even just have one site.

Laurie

They sky is not falling.

The real estate landscape is just changing.

If you were comfortable in your real estate vehicle for the past 10+ years, now would be the time to trade it in for a more hybrid/land-water/multi-terrain vehicle. (No, I am not talking actual cars.)

...otherwise you are going to become extinct.

Now is the time to gain market share.

Now is the time that TRUE millionaires are made ... in ANY industry.

Be creative. Watch your numbers. Shift ahead of the market. Pray.

Good Luck.

Haven't heard a peep from anyone in about 3 weeks. I work in the Northwest Suburbs of Chicago around Woodfield Mall. I don't think buyers or sellers know what to think. I've had one seller just give up this week and will try again in spring. Mariana has a good outlook on things - which my crystal bal was working!

Slow in RhodeIsland also. Noticed a big decrease in e-mails. I thought it was me. I think once the jitters are gone things will improve. Considering the market and bank interest rates you would think people would invest in real estate. I hope lending improves. Seems foreclosures, short sales and lower priced homes in the Providence, Cranston, Warwick area are still moving. Which is a good situation because the neighborhoods should slowly improve.

Slower but then again it is October. More buyers are finally getting the picture and more willing to reduce their asking price a little to compete with the jones'. Properties of over 400k are just not sellling however. Anything below 200k is flying off the shelves.

In the San Jose (Silicon Valley) market area, sales are down overall appx by half of 2000, but that year was a giant spike in traffic. A better number, I think, is to see what the average number of sales has been. I used the stats for August for the last 11 years (since Sept is not yet ready by our MLS and I didn't want to crunch that much data) and our numbers seem to be down between 27% and 39% from the average of the last 11 years. The variation has to do with types of housing (condos are faring worse), price point and location.

My appointments are down and I'm hearing more people say that they simply want to lay the groundwork for spring.

My (static) website traffic is much slower too. I see it in my inbox each morning - even the casual questions from past clients has slowed. My morning inbox is just one guage, but it's sure noticeable. My impression is that everyone is in shock.

My blogs are doing well, despite everything else being off. I seem to be getting a lot of relocation leads in particular, and I think these are especially good because they are people who really must move. Additionally, I have had the pleasure of working with folks coming to my area from out of the country. The exchange rate is helping them to make a killing when they buy in the US, and I think this is another avenue that most of us ought to be cultivating.

Great post....

Slow here in the UK too. Only well priced properties sell - it is difficult to convince Vendors to price realistically when other agents are happy to take the listing at any price.

The price of property is directly affected by the availabilty of mortgages - Banks now want bigger deposits and will only lend at sensible income multiples. Vendors are in denial - resulting in a stand-off. From what I have read, you are probably 12-18 months ahead in that prices only started to fall here about 10-12months ago.

For me it has slowed down. I think a lot of people have been afraid by the craze of Wall Street.

Jim, I think folks are just taking a deep breath and waiting to see the other shoe fall. It's almost like we are in the "What's next?" stage.

Jim,

I'm only staying a float with cash deals on small low price condos and rentals...that's it..I haven't had any of my higher end listings sell and I'm pretty sure people just can't get qualified and that's why we aren't seeing any mid size deals go through.

Northern Virginia has slow down a lot...we had a good summer with multiple contracts and things were looking positive. Since the whole mess came up traffic on our listings have drop drastically.

Jim: It's a very SLOW market here in the Middle Tennessee Area. The only ones out are the "tire kickers".

Buyers have a "wait and see" attitude; but, can you blame them? This will continue until the market turns around. There's just too much fear of the economy right now.

We're i small town AZ, and here the market is definately crawling, if not quite dead. We got an ofer (accepted) this week. It is on a condo priced at $55,000, the offer was $45,000 and the Owner accepted it rather than counter. We handle rentals, too, and the rental market is good.

On the garden island of Kauai, we have many lookers, dreamers, and someday maybes. We have buyers too, but they usually come from places like Canada or Europe where the economy is not quite so shabby. We've also got plenty of bottom feeders, folks who say let me know if you find some desperate sellers. Lots of people who want deals. Of course on the other hand, there were two North Shore lots that went into escrow in September, one for 3.9 Million and one for 10 Million.

was picking up a tad...now crawling...

When the tide goes out, you see who's been swimming naked ~ Warren Buffett

Good discussion and one of the reasons I like AR is that we can see how things are in the re est market all around the country and canada. NE Ohio is of course a very high volume foreclosure market.

Having said that, my company has picked up a stead percentage of market share every month during this selling season. My number of buyers is down from two months ago but I still have them, and people keep contacting me via my websites/blogs or on the phone. A buyers market is not a bad thing although it would certainly be nice for sellers if the prices weren't down.

I agree with those who said that it's a matter of continuing to network, get market share. My suggestion to those who are worried would be to try different things; check out your community's activities, meet people, keep working the internet and things could turn around for you.

Like another commenter, we still have neighborhoods with a lower supply of homes for sale and others with hundreds! One thing we can say is it is never boring!

This sounds like us pre-price corrections.

If you have any listings get price reductions, NOW. 10% below lowest listed model match comp. Try to be the lowest price in the neighborhood PERIOD. You will garner multiple offers if your strategy is to be the lowest price in the neighborhood.

Ya gotta dump (IE withdraw) anyone who does not go along with the plan because ultimately it is going to be your fault when it doesn't sell.

It seemed like the market was picking up here in Tucson and then when people started talking about a bailout we went to a crawl. The national economy is built on confidence and when no one has confidence in our leaders or the economy things slow down. I am also a big proponent of down payment assistance and that has gone away.

I am doing alot of previewing and BPO's!

Jim - In Charleston SC there were 10,730 propeties for sale in Spetember with only 573 sold..and with the Holidays and election coming up, not expecting it to get much better. Think everyone is going to have to roll up the sleeves and actually work a little bit instead of everything coming so easily.

I appreciate your posts my friend!

Jim: Northern Virginia is active with investors still..but there are tumbleweeds elsewhere. I think you are right. Buyers are afraid they will be rejected for a loan, due to the economic crisis, so they don't even bother trying.

Very little is happening in our Modoc County market. The very few listings that I've seen go into escrow seem to fall back out of escrow. ~ Evelyn

The two I have in contract are internet (relocations) leads. One is actually a broker from Florida who referred her daughter. They are both military. The listing that I just picked up is a vet relocating back to PA. And I've had steady showings every day for the last week. (waiting for that offer!)

Our market is crawling but still staying afloat.

I truly believe that my networking and internet presence is the ONLY reason I'm doing 'okay'

Our market is very slow. But it is interesting - our foreclosures are less than what we had in 2002, home prices have come down very little, and land prices have stayed steady. My main board averaged one sale per office last month. Even current pendings do not equal one per office.

Scary stuff. Missouri agents had to renew by September 30th. Haven't seen any numbers yet to see how many we lost.

Here in Mason County when news of bailouts, and bank closures hit, everything seemed to come to a screaching halt. Even the buyers that were serious and ready to go took a step back and relooked at their goals asking themselves if they were doing the right thing. Many investors have started popping up with extremely low ball offers and moving on through sellers until someone finally bites or they are going directly to the small bank REO's and dealing directly with them bypassing the agent.

Our second quarter sales showed an increase in resales over the first quarter but still way down from a year ago. The majority of the sales have been homes less than $200k and som higher end waterfront homes above ($800k)- the middle man on average is sitting there and has been sitting there for well over 8 months on average. We have also seen preapproved buyers going through a 30 day process with the lender and the lenders' underwriting at the last minute either coming up with another last minute condition or just flat out denying the loan. That has also made buyers shy of wanting to even consider talking to a lender because of all the horror stories they have heard. We have seen a lot of lease options starting to come about now as well as owner financing if possible.

Happy Sunday Everyone,

In this Seaside Community in Rocky Point Mexico only 3 1/2 hours from Phx or Tucson, the buyers are still here and getting very good prices. The BOOMERS are here looking for their retirement dream which is more affordable now. The financing ability has always been a challenge but the successful Mortgage Companies are still here. I recently closed a waterfront ground floor 3 Br condo originally sold at $300k , Resold at $219k. It looks like we have huge value now for the buyers, please contact me if you have buyers I will gladly pay you a referral.

Hi Jim and everyone - our market here in my area of Portsmouth NH has slowed somewhat from the summer months. I was very busy then, others in my office weren't necessarily. We've gotten down to a 4 1/2 month absorption rate as of September's numbers, and we'd had a much higher number but it has been slowly coming down. Our inventory is lower than it's been for some time now. There are buyers out there, most thinking there are better deals ahead so they keep looking. Our numbers were showing we'd pretty much bottomed out here a number of months ago, and were trying to round the up corner.....and then the latest banking crap hit the fan. Everytime something like that hits the media as it always does, things slow right down. People are leery about what's around the next corner, what new banks are going under or being taken over by some other entity. Is their money safe - major concerns for everyone.

Interestingly enough, my internet leads have been steadily increasing, but most are several months out for their purchase. I've had 2 sales fall through very recently - one for financing and this buyer had a very strong pre-approval. At the last minute, the bank said no thanks. The other fall-through was for inspection results on a bank-owned property - overwhelming amount of work needed.

Still getting some showings on my listings, had 5 yesterday and today, with a couple more tomorrow. Just wish some more offers would start coming in again, and then another roll would start up for me.

The leaves are changing here, the temperatures are cooler.... but I paid only $3.03 per gallon for gas yesterday! I wish I had needed a full tank when I saw those prices....

Ann

Jim and everyone studying the national scene of real estate- We are Busy selling our listings. I have always for over 25 years lived with the slogen- The power is in the listing. We have close to 50 listings and you need to have at least 25 listings in a slower market in order to haves sales and closings every month.

While most all the newer agents are bailing out of real estate, all of the core group of agents here in our market are still here and still selling. We hire buyers agents, hire VA assistants, and closers. We are getting ready to add on a listing manager.

We are getting a huge influx of cash buyers. All of our luxury listings are being shown and offers coming on them this week. One of them is a 1.7 million dollar listing, being sold for all cash. The other one listed at 1.2 million is getting an all cash offer. We have people cashing in their investments, taking their money out of their banks, leaving from the north, coming down here and buying real estate with their cash.

Almost all of our short sales get multiple offers and have had a few unintentional bidding wars! With all the supply, I was shocked that our listings get this action. The reason our listings get noticed is our online marketing. We ask each agent how did their client find out about our listing, 7 out of 10 say their clients saw it on the internet, then called their agent.

We are approaching season in Wellington. Equestrians will be heading down, snowbirds will be heading down and we anticipate a very busy season this winter. We have new Equestrian events, the political infighting among Equestrians is over and it is on to great Polo games and the Winter Equestrian Festival for jumpers and dressage.

I rarely watch TV and I read all the stories at this time from Think and Grow Rich, Napolean Hill. More millionaires were made during the great depression than at any other time until the dotcom boom. This is an incredible empowering focus to have.

I don't spend my time studying the down turn, the negative MLS reports. I see the drop in values and say GOOD! More people can buy now. I look for what is selling and where and go after that market. We look for the open doors. There are areas of every market that are selling. Look for those, stop doing the same thing over and over again. Whereever there is a negative there is a positive, the law of polarity.

We hear the stories and then Nestor and I look at each other and realize how truly blessed we are. We focus on our blessings. We envision the success of our business. We visualize, medidate, focus on the positive, help others, serve our sellers and stay busy working on income activities.

I do believe that without the internet dominance that we have and without our expired marketing program we would not have the level of business that we do have. We thank God every day for our blessings, give credit and honor him.

We are growing and the only thing that I fear is that Obama would win and we then would have to lay off all our people because the tax increase that he is going to put on small businesses like us, will end up with all the taxes included, about 65%; the highest in the world. I don't know that we could survive that. This is exactly what brought our country into a deeper depression when FDR raised taxes on businesses. Businesses would just literally shut their doors. So then I shake it off and realize that I need to focus my time over the next few weeks to help get the word out that McCain/Palin is the only ticket we can vote for, the lesser of the two evils, in order to protect our brokerages and our businesses and the jobs of those who work for us. Katerina

Things have diffenitely slowed down, one deal fell apart recently to tighter lending guidlines, feeling lucky to have gotten a new contract signed around last week

Jim: Slow here on everything except leasing... Leasing is hot. All those folks who now can't qualify have to go somewhere! Thank goodness I have a property management business as well!

leads are way down, hits are way down and showings are way, way down. buyers are scared, it was like after 9/11 when nobody would return a phone call for 2 months. people will come out of it, unfortunately it might not be until after November 4th.

Hi Jim,

Down at Lake Sinclair which is just about an hour and half east of Atlanta we are crawling, but not dead. Had some serious lookers out today looking to invest in a lot. We are well short of 2005 and 2006 levels, but still above 2000 levels. And listings... we have listed a dozen new Lake Sinclair homes in the past week alone. But then tax bills were mailed here last week and we do usually get a bunch of new listings as soon as people get their tax bills.

Being in Los Angeles where the million+ homes get multiples and 200K townhome that sold for 500K a year ago sits on the market, shows you we have wiped out the middle class from homebuying

My internet leads are down dramatically, too. I thought it was my content until I talked to others who count on the internet to generate leads and business. They've had less than I've had.

There is still business out there, though. It's just not coming as regularly from the web.

Steamboat Springs Real Estate Blog

Jim, our leads are down a bit and so are our showings on our listings, but there is still activity. We just had 4 offers come in on one of our listings, did highest and best, and received a full price offer. Had another offer come in on another one of our listings today - although it is low it still is a deal in writing. We wrote about today that in slower times, agents can take advantage of that time to step up their marketing efforts. It will be interesting to see how things do post "bailout" but for now, Philly is still doing pretty good !

Hi Jim, Actually our market was trying to get some support for the last few months. Sept is our slowest month - so maybe a combination of that and the national events of late.

Jim ... I know that with politics and Wall Street things are a bit shaky but personally I'm having a fantastic month! (and I REFUSE to dwell on all the negative ... October will be even better!)

Great post I will be sharing this with my 22 clients that are wondering what is wrong here. It will let hem know its nothing I'm doing wrong its just the market!

Hi Jim:

Boston has about 6 months of inventory; that makes us only a couple of months above normal (4-4.5). So we're not too far off. And prices have leveled (never dropped much in my town, Andover, anyway - just slowed the volume of inventory).

As far as leads are concerned, though, here's a "lead" for you:

As of this very moment, at www.owners.com, there are 2541 properties for sale by owners within 20 miles of downtown. That means 2,541 people who are also BUYING (assuming they plan to live somewhere if/when they sell). So it seems to me that there are PLENTY of leads; We just have to go CHASE them rather than them coming to us - especially since so many buyers "automatically" assume that properties listed on REALTOR websites is "still overpriced" so they're content to sit around.

Try it: People selling are people buying. If you need listings, it's a double whammy! If you don't, then at least you have 2500 people to talk to about your current inventory!

Time are a-changing all right! Customers aren't going to chase salespeople like they did 4 years ago. The "real" game of sales is a-foot! Time for us to start chasing them - again!

Best of luck, all!

- Matthew Ferrara

www.matthewferrara.com

Mine slowed for a couple week and then picked up again..... just a few in the past week though. Should pick up soon! I've been using the extra free time to work on my blogs and web sites......

My buyers have definitely gotten scared and feel that the time is not right to buy....I feel like its the opposite though!

I think Ann gave a good overview for New Hampshire. Every deal is a challenge -- the short sales are a real challenge and most fall through because the buyers just get tired of waiting. We will se how things develop... however, things are very slow the past few weeks.

I'm not a Realtor, but a stager. And I've been looking for responses from Michigan--only saw one! So, everyone here is either really busy, or drowning their sorrows! I am busier than I have been, so that's a good thing!

My goodness! You posed a question everyone has an opinion on. Sounds like RE slow down is a national epidemic at the moment. I attribute it to several factors: Media has scared buyers on the fence, election year and let's wait and see what happens, tougher lender quidelines for borrowers, off-season time of year to buy, job market instability, investor confidence down, stock market losses...oh let's see, there must be more.

Mary Pope Handy and I are in the same regional board, although not local boards. I'm north of her closer to San Francisco. Yes we are slower and have fewer listings all over the area. Prices have not come down much in the high end of the market but have finally corrected in the entry level for SFH's allowing someone to buy a house under $600,000. That's entry level here, folks. Welcome to what I call Fantasy Island where we are landlocked and don't see new construction taking place except in some in-fills and tear-downs. I sell homes between San Francisco and Sunnyvale (primarily in San Mateo County) and we are busy with new buyers. There is money to lend. People are kicking tires and there are some good buys out there. The best thing right now is knowing that sellers will finally negotiate with a buyer!!

We are seeing new leads coming through our blog. Not a large number but a steady few weekly and most of them are qualified.

Yea I agree really dead. I am even now hearing from commercial realtors how slow it is.

Aside from all the spookiness on Capital Hill, the market used to slow down this time of year and nobody thought anything was out of order. Oh how I pine for a more normal order again. It will happen again some day ;(

I have run into a lot of people with A LOT of questions about the market. I think a lot of people are thinking about buying or selling but they want to get their comfort zone in order first. I have been doing my best explaining the local market and how it relates to the National market (we are in a Resort area so we depend on those second home and retirement buyers). I also am getting a lot of questions about availability of financing. People will come around, and I don't think it will be as long as it has been.

OCT

2008

What is weird, I wrote a post last night telling how after they passed the bill, the phone started ringing and I had more showings in the last 72 hours to new buyers than I have in the last month!

In my area (Sacramento County, CA) the market seems to have bottomed out and has been picking up. It has never really died here - just slowed - and although there are many more REOs and short sales than normal, there are regular sellers and buyers out there and those of us who are willing to work HARD for our clients are getting action. I notice that most open houses are bringing buyers out now, where a few months ago most open houses were very lonely. With good advertising and promoting to my database, and lots of signage to direct people to the home, open houses are doing well. And I am getting listings from my AR/Localism blogs. So as long as the banks will be offering credit, we should be able to make a living at this sometimes frustrating business that we love.

The leads have slowed but it's my own darned fault. I've neglected the local side of my lead generation and now I have to play catch up.

Shame on me.

Hey Jim -

Brace yourself. Our market crash lasted 3 years. We are just now emerging, but Naples, FL was also the 1st to crash. Our prices are pre-boom 2003 levels and units match that year as well. "Lord I pray for one more real estate boom before I retire!" Will we ever see this again?? Greetings from Paradise.

Our MLS units sold are down 35% compared to '07 and 45% compared to '06. Average price is holding but buyers are getting much more house for the money. I estimate the average house has lost 20% of market value compared to '06. We've got close to 11 months inventory in listings. I'm telling sellers that if they don't absolutely have to sell they should not list. About the only market we have left are short sales and foreclosures and even those buyers are getting nervous that the market hasn't hit bottom. Looks to me like GW, Bernacke, and Paulson have created a self fulfilling prophecy with their scare tactics and virtually assured an Obama victory. The republicans should have nominated Ron Paul, the only candidate that actually understands economics.

Greg Booth Re/Max Forest City, Loves Park Illinois

Hey Jim...Maybe change what you are doing, and take a break and charge your batteries. Our market is slowing and I started doing Opens and meeting people, This is the only time the public comes to us, and they need you. My market is slow ,but you know what there were 300 homes that Sold in September.

Maybe a little Zig Ziglar motivational Tapes will help, stay positive sometime it's just in our minds, go see Past Clients....and Turn the TV Off.

Good Luck my friend have a great week!