FORECLOSURERADAR.COM - Riverside County - August 2008
In reviewing the foreclosure statistics for Riverside County we found that we continue to be near the peak of the foreclosure activity. Next month's report we expect a huge decrease in NOD's due to impacts of SB1137. For the full impact of SB 1137 on the foreclosure process review our earlier post titled SB 1137 will change foreclosure numbers.
The ratio of the NOS's to NOD's, with a 90 day lag, continues at an alarmingly high ratio, as it continues at a high rate as it has all year, currently it is at 88% down 5% from last month. (Why a 90 day lag on the data? NOD's expire and move into NOS's at 90 days)
The number of NOD's is near the peak for this year last month at 5,340 a 8.2% increase from last month.
Here is where we break out the crystal ball, we predict the following:
NOS's for August will be 4,730
NOS's for September will be 4,490
NOS's for October will be 4,340,
NOS's for October who knows due to the effects of SB 1137.
We used 88% of the NOD's to come up with these numbers with a 90 day lag. Keep in mind that the NOS cure rate is still around 12% so the actual number of foreclosures will be less.
How was last month's prediction?
We predicted the NOS's would hit approx. 4,730 in August 2008, they came in at 4,721. Our prediction was close enough to be the same. We missed the prediction by 9 units.
Here is the raw data:
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NOD's - Notice of Default
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Mar
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Apr
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May
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Jun
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Jul
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Aug
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2006
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2007
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2,187
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2,117
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2,320
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2,716
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2,968
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3,609
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2008
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5,384
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5,221
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5,385
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5,111
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4,935
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5,340
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2008 % Change M to M
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21.0%
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-3.0%
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3.1%
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-5.1%
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-3.4%
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8.2%
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2008 % Change Y to Y
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146.2%
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146.6%
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132.1%
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88.2%
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66.3%
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48.0%
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NOS's - Notice of Sale
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Mar
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Apr
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May
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Jun
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Jul
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Aug
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2006
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2007
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1,242
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1,080
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1,580
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1,423
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1,693
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1,708
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2008
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3,629
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4,150
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4,447
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4,619
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4,835
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4,721
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2008 % Change M to M
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102.6%
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14.4%
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7.2%
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3.9%
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4.7%
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-2.4%
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2008 % Change Y to Y
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192.2%
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284.3%
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181.5%
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224.6%
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185.6%
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176.4%
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Data Source: foreclosureradar.com - Analysis Empire Realty
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Here is some new data that tracks median and price per square foot,
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Single Family Residences
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SFR Only
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RIVERSIDE COUNTY
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# SFR
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Price (1,000)
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% chg from Previous Year
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$/Sq Ft
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Media Price Prior to Present Month % change SFR
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Prior to Present Month Change $ Per Sq Ft
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Prior to Present Month Median $ Change ($1,000)
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Feb 2008
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1,386
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$307
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-24.3%
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$151
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Mar 2008
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1,748
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$290
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-30.1%
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$143
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-5.3%
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($8)
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($17)
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Apr 2008
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2,219
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$284
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-30.9%
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$138
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-3.5%
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($5)
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($6)
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May 2008
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2,470
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$271
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-34.0%
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$132
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-4.3%
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($6)
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($13)
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Jun 2008
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2,842
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$263
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-33.4%
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$128
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-3.0%
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($4)
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($8)
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Jul 2008
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3,251
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$250
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-37.0%
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$123
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-3.9%
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($5)
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($13)
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Aug 2008
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3,247
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$235
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-40.5%
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$120
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-2.4%
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($3)
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($15)
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Feb-Aug % Change
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-21%
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Feb-Aug $ Change
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$31
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Data Source: Data Quick - Analysis Empire Realty
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Robert, this post is packed full of information. I for one hope that the rate of the NOD slows down.