I attended school in the 1980's and early 1990's.  I was a history major, and for years had read in text books about the Great Depression (1929-39).  That depression was sandwiched in between two world wars, and still fresh enough that many of our grandparents or parents may still remember those days.  What I didn't realize is the number of economic depressions that the United States has gone through since 1819.  I found it interesting that in almost every case, there was a general run-up in commodity prices, the stock market or real estate before the bottom fell out.  Free market's ALWAYS corrects itself, the question comes down as to how difficult will be that downturn.

Here is a brief synopsis of each of these crisis in the last 190 years, and perhaps it gives us an idea of what is to come.  Hopefully this recent crisis does not last as long as the 1929-39 episode, but time will tell.

Panic of 1819 - Credit collapse, precipitated by wild speculation in western lands, followed by sharp contractions in credit, ended up being a six year depression.

Panic of 1832 - Actually a sever recession, caused mainly by the government.  Andrew Jackson had some issues with the National Bank of the United States of that time period.  The result was that he wouldn't renew their charter, and the president of that bank called commercial loans due across the country. This resulted in panic and confusion.  This conflict within the Jackson administration continued his entire administration, resulting in the Specie Act, which created a number of speculative regional banks and financial institutions.  In fact there were regional currencies throughout the country, which was brought to a spectacular conclusion in 1837.

Panic and Depression of 1837-1843 - English Banks raised interest rates and reduced credit sending shock waves through credit markets throughout the world.  This caused a wild speculative generated collapse in currency markets within the United States. Government battled the previous specie issues that were rampant during the Jackson administration.  The result was wide spread collapse of many small and regional banks throughout the country.  There was also massive real estate speculation and collapse as well in many of the western states.

Panic of 1857 - Downturn in demand for agricultural exports brought on by the end of the Crimean war in Europe, as well as over speculation in railroads and real estate once again.  Severe problem for over extended banks, and resulted in widespread bankruptcy of many banks.

Panic and Depression of 1869-1871 - Finally a depression that was not caused by massive real estate speculation. This one was caused by speculation in the Gold market.  At the time are currency was still tied to the gold market, and there were several big financiers that attempted to corner the Gold market. This resulted in a massive collapse when the government dumped over 4 million into the market.  Ten of thousands of investors lost their shirt when their investments became devalued. May businesses and banks went under and the result was another depression.

Panic and Depression 1873-76  - Over extension of railroads, one of the biggest railroad magnates of all time goes bankrupt, Jay Cook and Company.  Soon within days a major Bank declares bankruptcy, which then spills over, and over 10,000 businesses fail in the next three years.  Major reasons this happened were over production, declining markets, and deflation due to less demand.

Panic and Depression of 1893 - Another major railroad collapse, market's flucate wildly, rest of the world feels this one.  World wide depression for the next few years.

1901 Market Panic - This was purely stock speculation and overvaluation.

1929-1939 GREAT DEPRESSION - Long prosperity, coupled with political ineptitude and lack of reaction from the federal reserve at the time.  Coupled with strange legislative and tax policies in the 1930's, and you have the longest depression in our history.  This is the one we're all afraid of going through again and for good reasons.

1949-50  Post War Recession  - Probably the most massive adjustment from public spending to the private sector. I'm really surprised we did not have a massive recession or depression.

1974-1979  Carter Malaise - huge changes in oil and gas prices, stagflation, slow growth and higher prices make it difficult to get ahead in the 1970's.  Not considered a recession, but inflationary pressure forces one in the early 1980's.

1980-82 -  Recession  and beginning of Reagan years - 22% interest rates and high unemployment quickly transitions into one of the greatest economic booms in history.

1991-1992 -  Bush Recession -  A gasp or pause before more steady expansions into the 1990's and the soon to take place Internet boom.  Also preceded by heavy real estate speculation in 1987-1989.

2000-2001 - Dot com Bubble bursts, and country goes through slower growth period before real estate pulls us out of the doldrums.  Massive real estate bubble in sues which leads us to our current crisis.

 

Doom and gloom aside, this correction is going to be a sharp or severe one.  There is no doubt that massive real estate speculation, coupled with unregulated credit expansion are currently taking massive hits.  The fundamental economy will suffer, but the question is for how long.  It's historical but it doesn't make anyone feel any better that we're about to go through one of these corrections.

The important thing we should all remember though.  The sun will rise tomorrow (guaranteed), and people will still need to buy and sell and barter.  The storm maybe a rough one now, but there are opportunities for those who are ready and willing.  Franklin D Roosevelt was right about one thing, "There is nothing to fear, but fear itself".  The one thing you don't lose in a financial disaster is your will or your mind.  Use them effectively and you will not only survive but thrive!

 
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4 Comments on "nothing to fear but fear itself"...historical perspective on current crisis

OCT
06
2008
241,260 Points 5 Featured Posts Outside Blog

Karl,

thanks for sharing this information with us. I believe you are correct in that it will be pretty severe. Realtors here are dropping out right and left. However, those left standing will be better for it I am sure.

4:53pm • #1
15 Featured Posts

Mike,

Just want to point out that things will eventually get better.  The worse part of going through any financial crisis is the initial thought that your life is about to change to a certain degree.  So you can either be okay with that reality or you change it to any reality you want.

Best wishes...

 

Karl

5:37pm • #2
451,226 Points Outside Blog

Even though this current market stinks, people just don't keep it in perspective...what goes up must come down, and vice versa

10:01pm • #3
OCT
08
2008
15 Featured Posts

Konnie,

What's nice to know is there will be a bottom, things will get better eventually, and we've gone through this several times already in our history.  I just love all those doom an gloomers that want to predict that the world is coming to an end.

Karl

1:29am • #4

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Karl Christen Credit Restoration Specialist

Orem, UT

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Address: Orem, UT, 84058

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