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Recap of First Half 2008 Home Price Performance
The average home price in Metro Denver increased +2% in the full year 2005 to the full year 2006. Comparing 2006 to 2007, the average home price across the metro dropped 3%, to $303,000. The half of 2008 was $275,000 vs. the first half of 2007 was $306,000: a 10% decrease. These numbers will be slightly different than Metrolist, as they are just Denver Metro and don't include outlying areas like Fort Collins, Colorado Springs, or Boulder.
The average price of a foreclosure dropped -6% to $168,000 in the first half of 2008. The average short sale was steady at $212,000. The average price of a non-distress sale decreased 5% to $352,000. Sales volume was down for single family homes. Foreclosure and short sale volume is up and non-distress seller volume is down.
Some areas did better than others. The attached chart shows different neighborhoods in our region. Each region has the neighborhood's name and the percentage of sales in the last twelve months that were either short sales or bank-owned properties. The second line has the price change the twelve months from July 2007 to June 2008 vs. the twelve months immediately preceding. Next, you'll see the average home price in the last twelve months and the average days on market (DOM) in the last twelve months.
There had to be at least twenty sales in the last year for an area to be included. The numbers are more reliable in areas where there were more sales.
The good news is the last four times the market had a change from a buyers market to a sellers market, or vice versa, it was preceded by a change in the DOM. DOM for homes declined in the first and second quarters of this year. Too soon to call it a trend, but it is a favorable sign. Another great indication of hitting the bottom: monthly prices in DSW and AUN have been relatively steady for seven months, after falling rapidly from 2005 to 2007.
Source: Your Castle Real Estate analysis, MLS data
(c) Copyright 2008 Your Castle Real Estate
Peak Real Estate Advisors - Denver, CO
Thanks for the overview. Knowledge is power and we need to make sure our clients and peers are informed. I can't wait to see the next versin of this blog. Our clients will continue to benefit from the great info you are posting.
Oct 17, 2008 04:56 PM
Your Castle Real Estate - Denver, CO
Very interesting that some areas have a relatively high foreclosure rate (above 25%) with a positive average price change. The Baker neighborhood is a perfect example.
Oct 18, 2008 08:24 AM
Your Castle Real Estate - Lafayette, CO
Awesome Information! It definitely pays to educate everyone in the investing process. With all of the free classes that Your Castle provides as well as the knowledgeable agents it would be hard to go wrong with using an agent like yourself.
Oct 18, 2008 01:58 PM
Your Castle Real Estate - Castle Rock, CO
It is amazing to see how much some of these markets have dropped and look like they are continuing to drop. I hope the bottom is near for some of these communities. On the flip side, what a great market to buy an investment in, right?
Oct 19, 2008 04:18 PM
Your Castle Real Estate - Aurora, CO
I saw an article in the paper about how many of owner occupants are having a really hard time competing with investors. It seems that even though prices are still declining, the listing brokers for banks are creating bidding situations.
Oct 19, 2008 04:22 PM
Your Castle Real Estate - Aurora, CO
What do you think the Denver market is going to do in the near future, given the bailout plans? Has your business slowed down at all? Mine has only gotten better since it's such a great time to buy.
Oct 19, 2008 04:27 PM
Your Castle Real Estate - Parker, CO
Have you heard that the days on market have been decreasing the last two months? I think that maybe we are past the bottom and climbing on up. It will still take some time but I'm seeing the first signs of things turning around.a
Oct 22, 2008 04:43 PM
Your Castle Real Estate - Aurora, CO
It is amazing to see how much some of these markets have dropped and look like they are continuing to drop. I hope the bottom is near for some of these communities. On the flip side, what a great market to buy an investment in.
Oct 24, 2008 04:49 PM
Your Castle Real Estate - Aurora, CO
Can't wait to see what is happening in the 3Q of this year. It seems that much of the map will stay the same. It would be interesting to hear if any of these areas have it rock bottom.
Oct 25, 2008 02:40 PM
Your Castle Real Estate - Denver, CO
Your information reflects a true depiction of what is going on in the Denver market. I like the way you have put this information. It is insightful but matter of fact. Do you send this information to your clients or just use it in your brokerage?
Oct 26, 2008 03:21 PM
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