• A couple of things are clear, many people have lost confidence in the financial system and this is not just a U.S. problem as the aftermath of this financial crisis is being felt around the world.


  • Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke brokered the broadest coordinated interest rate cut in history, among all of the central banks. Yesterday, the Fed, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, Bank of Canada and Sweden's Riksbank reduced their benchmark rates by half a percentage point. The Bank of Japan and Switzerland also supported the action and China's central bank cut it's key rate by .27 percentage point.


  • The stock market has reacted sharply to economic and credit data this week and ended today at 8579, down 679 points on the day. We have not seen these levels since 2003.


  • The giant safety net that the Fed and Treasury have initiated has helped to keep the financial system afloat, but it has not restored confidence nor has it enabled US banks to start lending to each other again. Banks in Europe, as evidenced by the extremely high Libor rate, remain on the defensive and continue to hold on to cash. The Libor rate is at it's highest level this year.

Why should you care about the Libor rate?

Some business loans and many adjustable rate mortgages in the US are tied to the Libor rate, the rise will probably put added stresses on consumers and could offset some of the easing by the Fed over the past year if the rate stays high. Questions to ponder:

  • Currently the nominal value of all delinquent US mortgages, as of the 2nd quarter, was put at $680 billion by High Frequency Economics. If this number is accurate, will the $700 billion bailout or rescue plan do enough to alleviate this problem. Additionally there is enough anecdotal evidence to suggest that this number will be rising over the next year. If you look at the reaction of the stock market this week, the answer to that question may be negative.


  • It's clear we're in a recession, the big question is how long will we stay there and how long will it take the credit markets to unfreeze?

I think many things need to happen for the economy to turn around, but key elements include shoring up the unemployment situation as well as our credit markets. How quickly this will happen as well as cleaning up our mortgage situation will determine how fast we come out of the current quagmire.

As far as the local real estate market, we'll have to see how the local economy is impacted by unemployment and the current credit squeeze as well as the number of foreclosures coming online over the next few months.

 

 

 

 

 

2 Comments on Economic Update

OCT
09
2008

Well Ana, it sure has been interesting watching it all unwind, I am not sure any of the things outlined above (except the rate cut) are quick acting and can stop the bleeding until they are actually implemented.  The rate cut was too little too late to have an impact.

The good news is the stock market cant keep going down at its current pace for much longer.

6:53pm • #1
1 Featured Post

Ana - solid post and content. I liked your point regarding LIBOR and its corresponding correlation to many lending rates for consumers and businesses. For those who don't know, it stands for London Inter-Bank Offering Rate.

11:13pm • #2

This blog does not allow anonymous comments

 
Headshots_resized Rainmaker_large

Burbank Real Estate Agent Ana Connell

Burbank, CA

More about me…

Keller Williams Realty

Address: 401 S. First Street, Burbank, Ca, 91502

Office Phone: (818) 239-3500 x 616

Cell Phone: (818) 795-8474

Email Me

Housing and economic information and statistics for Burbank, North Hollywood, Hollywood Hills, Studio City , Valley Village, Toluca Lake and surrounding areas of the San Fernando Valley.


Links

Archives

RSS 2.0 Feed for this blog

Find CA real estate agents and Burbank real estate on ActiveRain.