Pig DrawingTrying to wrap your arms around market data in Northern Virginia these days is like trying to catch a greased pig at the county fair.  Everyone has a different take on the numbers and trying to figure out why might get you a blue ribbon but that is about all.

Recently I read a market report indicating only one townhouse had sold in a local neighborhood last year.  Instinctively I knew the data was incorrect.  There was just no way that only one townhouse sold in this very popular local neighborhood.

So  I went to the MLS to check the data.  This is where the slippery pig appeared.  How do you define a neighborhood?  Is it by geographic location, is it by how the "locals" classify the neighborhood or is it by the county tax records.  If two neighborhoods run together geographically and by'locals" definition, are they really one?  Or is it only the tax record definition that makes them a neighborhood?

At first when I ran my MLS search I came up with sixteen sales to their one. So of course I figured it had to be our definition of the neighborhood that accounted for this big discrepency.  But then when I looked at the report I noticed how they had defined the neighborhood.  Our definition of the neighborhood appeared to be the same.  So our numbers should have been the same or at least a lot closer.  How did they miss fifteen sales and what impact does that have on a buyer or seller looking for a market comparison?

There is no way to know how they actually derivered their data but it points out how two agents can look at the same information in the MLS and draw two different conclusions.  Buyers and sellers depend on us to give them the best information possible.  Every number tells a story and I'm going to read the whole book not just the cliff notes. I want to make sure the information I provide to my client's covers every chapter and not just the last  one.

 

Cindy Jones.  All Rights Reserved.  "Market Data-Its Slippery than a Greased Pig"

 
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10 Comments on Market Data-Its Slippery than a Greased Pig

OCT
23
2008

Cindy,

Your clients are very fortunate to have you working for them...You go over and beyond in order to provide the best service...and it makes a difference...no matter how big or small the task may be, that you do your best at what you do.

5:02pm • #1
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Stats pulled from tax records or MLS can be tricky.  I run into it regularly.  Folks want a town home but not a condo.  Well, there are a lot of town homes that are not fee simple and not listed under "condo" in the MLS. 

Info from tax or MLS records only produce what is requested, unless there are mistakes in listings.  Goodness knows there are an abundance of them.

 

5:59pm • #2
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Rebecca-thank you for the compliment.  I do work hard to make sure that I give my clients and prospective clients the best information I can.  Thisincludes looking at data that other agents think is unimportant but I've found my clients this year believe it has value.

6:05pm • #3
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Lenn-in this circumstance the data should have been very easy to find.  The neighborhood is well known, the report focused on one type of housing and any agent familiar with the area should have known instinctively that more than one property had sold there.  It was a no brainer even for an "inexperienced" agent :-)

6:10pm • #4
Outside Blog

That's amazing that the numbers were so far of..

9:16pm • #5
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Cindy, some pig!

9:42pm • #6
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Karl-it is.  I've tried hard to figure out how they could be so far off but no matter how I look at the data I can't figure it out.  On another report I could account for the difference as the neighborhood has a lot of strange "offical" tax records.

11:06pm • #7
OCT
29
2008
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Karl-thanks.  Thought I'd start the Halloween celebration a little early :-)

12:07pm • #10

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Cindy Jones-Northern Virginia Real Estate & Military Relocation Services

Woodbridge, VA

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