Here's a 12-month forecast for housing values in the top 100 U.S. markets as reported by CNN Money. McAllen, Texas, leads the way with a predicted gain of 9.8%, followed by Tulsa and El Paso. Congratulations. On the opposite end of the scale, at the very end, sits Las Vegas. The annual decline is set at 8.9%. Our nearest competitors are Miami and Phoenix.

I wonder what type of forecasting models were used to arrive at these figures, but what I keep reading in the local media gives you a somewhat different picture. Economic fundamentals in the valley seem pretty sound. Job growth was 3% in January, unemployment is under 5% and gaming revenue was off slightly. New home construction is the only major sector in the economy that is quite weak right now.  Still, 5,000 to 6,000 people  move here every month. Nice growth numbers.

Market correction is under way, that's a fact. And it's healthy after that joyride. Median price appreciation has come to a screeching halt. There are pockets in the valley where house values have gone up a little and other pockets where they've dropped. But overall, I don't see a 9% decline. The economy is just too strong.

 

5 Comments on Vegas home prices to decline?

Here is a little longer outlook for some major cities. Make sure to click the links for more info.

Metro area

Median price, 2Q 2006

Est. median price, 2Q 2016

% increase

Washington D.C.

$435,899

$450,747

3%

New York

$558,853

$611,045

9%

Boston 

$416,911

$481,184

15%

Philadelphia

$230,495

$269,818

17%

Minneapolis-St. Paul

$244,186

$286,397

17%

Chicago

$290,953

$360,018

24%

Los Angeles

$538,477

$667,048

24%

Miami

$399,348

$498,564

25%

Atlanta

$172,722

$227,488

32%

St. Louis

$147,359

$195,607

33%

Phoenix

$284,727

$378,914

33%

San Diego

$624,987

$856,067

37%

Houston

$147,496

$214,370

45%

Dallas

$162,461

$245,725

51%

Seattle

$384,543

$612,383

59%

 

04/12/2007 07:33 PM by Grant Howell, ABR, e-PRO *Frisco TX Area Realtor®* (RE/MAX FIRST REALTY II - Frisco, Texas)

More bad press for Vegas and Phoenix?  Great.....

THANK YOU GRANT for that chart!  Where did it come from?

SK

04/12/2007 07:45 PM by Adam Tarr ABR,ePro, Assoc. Broker (RE/MAX Excalibur)

Well, I suppose it had to happen after the huge run up Vegas has experiences.  Still, you may beat the odds and have a great selling season.  Hard to beat Vegas!

04/12/2007 08:43 PM by Diane Bell, Hilton Head Real Estate, Bluffton (Charter 1 Real Estate, Hilton Head, Bluffton, SC)

Hey Esko!  I am finding there is a rental crisis here!  Rent prices are spiking quickly and there is very little inventory out there.  There has to be a pain point where the renters are going to start buying again!

ALSO~Most of our inventory lies in our condo and high end single family market.  That single family market under $300K is MOVING! Builders are not doing well because there is almost no inventory in the new construction market.  There is another pain point where buyers don't want to wait and move over to the resale market!

04/12/2007 10:02 PM by Renee Burrows - Las Vegas NV Real Estate (Nevada Realty Solutions)

Thanks for your comments. Let's see how the market behaves this spring and summer. Test of sorts for things to come.

04/13/2007 12:12 PM by Esko Kiuru - Las Vegas NV Mortgage Consultant (Sinifox Financial)

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Loan Officer: Esko Kiuru - Las Vegas NV Mortgage Consultant (Sinifox Financial)
Esko Kiuru - Las Vegas NV Mortgage Consultant
Las Vegas, NV
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