This morning I was listening to CNBC and herd a pundit say that he expects the US economy to go into a recession for the 4th quarter...After I picked myself off the floor from laughing so hard, I started thinking about the ramifications of the denial of Wall Street to the facts of our times.  Clearly to average people, the American economy has been in recession for a long time and heading toward depression.  So how does this impact me and my business?

First, the amount of competition has decreased dramatically.  In the past I have often lost good clients because their brother, cousin, or neighbor was a Mortgage Broker.  I often thought that they were not going to be served as well as I, a 25 year professional mortgage banker, would have served them.  But I understand loyalty and family obligation.  Sometimes these misguided clients would come back with their tail between there legs, asking me to bail them out of the mess that cousin Alvin or their neighbor Doris had created.  I always welcomed these opportunities to be the hero, but I have to admit, it would have been much easier if I had just started the transaction from the beginning.  My point to all of this is that cousin Alvin and neighbor Doris are now out of the Mortgage business.  It is now seldom that I have competition from referred clients and when I do, the competition is now usually competent.  Not a statement I could have made a year ago.  I was told that nearly 2/3rds of all registered mortgage originators in my state have left the business.  Looking around that seems about right.  I never feared competition but it sure makes my job easier when I don't have to make up for the sins of incompetent, unethical, or downright crooked competition.

Another change to our market place, for better or for worse, is the elimination of product options.  This certainly levels the playing field.  When all lenders are offering the same basic product mix, opportunity comes from hard work and good service, not who has the latest hot product.  Rates have always been competitive but we are now leaving an era of niche lending that gave distinct advantage to certain lenders with unusual or innovative products.  In this environment we all offer the same products...it's back to deuce.

Truth be told this market is very very soft.  There are not a lot of customers to be had.  Despite these facts my business is doing fine and I am going to thrive.  I have reason to believe that 09 will be a great year!