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Who Will Give You "Unbiased" Analysis About Our Housing Market and Economy???

Whether it is Lawrence "we have hit the bottom" Yun, Barry "lock-float-lock" Habib, Hank "Strong Dollar Policy" Paulson, or Ben "That's what I said but not what I meant" Bernanke...it is tough to get a straight answer out there.

The talking heads and their guests on Bloomberg, Fox Business, and CNBC all have skin in the game and are salesmen and women. Even the "Goldbugs" that offer their spin want people, hell, need people to buy into the "collapse mindset." I've chuckled a few times as Gold has taken a recent pounding amidst panic and fear that should have driven its per-ounce price over $1500!

Everyone has a perspective that is going to ultimately benefit them and actively work at getting others to believe in their version of reality.

Yes, the market is driven by sentiment just as much as it is driven by technicals, and as such...it is subject to confidence, mojo, and optimism (based on reality or mass delusion). This fact lends credibility to those that believe that "drinking positive koolaid" will solve all our markets problems.

That being said, out of all the spin-meisters that have been read, seen or heard...who do you honestly think has given us the closest thing to the truth?

My vote is for "Nouriel Roubini" Chairman RGE Monitor and Professor of Economics, NYU.

Posted by Rich Sweum on 10/24/2008 06:06 PM

Comments (18)

Post is included in group: All About Mortgages/Mortgage Networking
Post is included in group: Mortgages

18 Comments on Who Will Give You "Unbiased" Analysis About Our Housing Market and Economy???

OCT

2008

Frankly I'm sick of peoples' opinions and can't wait until the election is over. I know that is putting a negative spin on your post, however, you asked.

Listen to Your FHA Guru... everything will be ok.

I think that a lot of the sources are giving good information. However, I think that the only way to get the complete picture is to look from multiple angles. So, I use several sources.

I think that consumer sentiment spurred by the negativity of the media is the main reason that the housing market has not turned around yet. But I'm not an economist so that is just my simple take on things.

I hope he is wrong in his predictions going forward because if he is right...it's gonna get real ugly!

OCT

2008

Rich: Thank you. The pundits in my opinion have pretty much been wrong. I was listening to an analyst with a stock company earlier this year and he was forecasting a big bump. That's just one example. I still see better times ahead starting enxt year. Not great times but better than 2008. WE shall see!

Darla...I'm never tired of hearing "informed and well thought out" opinions and analysis...even if they are incorrect in their conclusions. People that can't form a rational cogent thought are tiresome however!

Bill...my FHA guru is of course, Jeff Belonger...and since I accepted him into my heart, my lending eternity has been secure!

Lisa...my only question, is it "negativity" if it is "reality?"

Phil...the promise in the pandemic is that it WILL get better, one way or another, just not in 14 months.

Paul...I will NEVER listen to a broker...they are salesmen and not economists, they are on the downslope of spin that is not based on reality!

Rich,

I agree with you about the "positive koolaid" solving the market problems and read your comment on the other blog about the market not recovering anytime soon. I agree with you. Sorry no one wants to hear it because it is "negative" but it is realistic. We are better off trying to deal with it than sitting around waiting for the market to return to the way it was a few years ago if we just wish hard enough. They call it a correction for a reason.

Michelle

Rich,

It really is amazing, and frustrating, how many different ways your hear this financial and economic mess explained. It's a mess in itself, isn't it?

OCT

2008

Michelle...I am very excited about the recovery, and I don't think that optimism is a bad thing, however, optimism that isn't grounded in reality is foolish and reckless. It's all about realistic timelines.

Esko...what is really entertaining is listening to a CEO of one of the Box banks, or a politician for that matter, try to explain "credit default swaps!" Holy moly...unintentional obfuscation at best, and at worst they sound like Sarah Palin trying to explain the difference between Sunni and Shiite!

I like your post and do encourage people to get off the couch and start buying real estate. I do almost all my business with investors and banks on REO properties. Today is the time to buy and now is the time to act. My company is one of the most respected appraisal companies in Arizona and we specialize in investments and Bank owned properties. If there is anything you may need in the way of appraisal or just some advise on a property please feel free to ask, also we offer a great discount for investors to get a "spot" appraisal to see what the property will appraise for before purchase. All of our appraisers are trained in underwriter guidelines to make sure your appraisal is the best possible. Hope everyone buys lots of property, this is how we will get out of this mess and some people will make a lot of money doing it!!!

Jim

Rich - so what's up with "Nouriel Roubini" Chairman RGE Monitor and Professor of Economics. What are his opinions and why do you like him?

signed - too lazy busy to do my own research

Jim...are you doing any work with localized REIT's, Tenants in Common and fractile partnerships? Cash is king and many investors are already maxed out with 4 financed properties. Love to know some of the investor structures you are utilizing!

Matt...he a little crazy (probably enjoys being contrarian) but he has been spot on the past 2 years and isn't "just doom and gloom" but points directionally towards solutions for the crisis on a macro level and future regulations that might prevent such a dramatic unwinding. While he is "in the game" and has a perspective that he is benefiting from, I also feel that he is true to sound economic principles. I also appreciate his perspective because it encompasses all the markets, not just housing markets. To really understand the uphill climb of the housing recovery, you have to consider all the other facets that exist globally. Micro-econ (looking at one market and its fundamentals) from a trend prediction perspective is completely inadequate because it is tied to everything else.

OCT

2008

Always like your spin. I know nothing of this guy, but will have to google this him now.

Hi Bob, "spin????" what...me? I'm thinking about ttaking November off...rates could touch the 7's in a day or two, time for a vacation!

OCT

2008

Hi Rich,

I am a huge fan of Roubini and of any economist he has been terrifying accurate over the past two years, while he can be dramatic and self serving he is very detailed and provides stunning analysis. If you want to have a good market opinion, I believe you have to listen to all ends of the spectrum, I use Roubini at the bearish end, John Mauldin at Thoughts from the frontline and Barry Ritholtz at the Big Picture for middle of the road, then top it off with the talking heads on the networks to find out what way the powers that be are trying to steer the masses. The only real truth is understanding that everyone has an agenda and is spinning their direction, it is our job is become knowledgeable and form our own opinion on the market. Then pass on what we learn to as clear information that empowers our clients to make good decisions on how to manage the largest asset and liability in their portfolios.

The supply of refi's and pruchases may be low, but the demand for leadership has never been higher,

Now is a once in a lifetime opportunity to be a leader in a time of crisis, to be a leader to many, and a hero to some.

Joshua, good insight and great exhortation!

Some of these "pundits" actually offer some good advise outside of the float/lock spectrum. I saw Barry Habib the other night on Fox and he was giving advise to people who are close to or have already had a foreclosure action started. Pretty good advise - I checked it out with an attorney the next day!

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