As the closing date for InBev $52 billion takeover of Anheuser-Busch ( The developer of Kingsmill and Busch Gardens in Williamsburg, VA) nears, some investors fear they may be forced to renegotiate or even shelve the debt-financed deal to create the world's largest brewer.

A banking industry meltdown and corresponding market volatility has already caused the Belgium-based brewer to postpone a $13.4 billion rights issue it planned in connection with the deal. Analysts say there could be more changes in store.

Some possibilities include offering a stock component in return for Anheuser shares, instead of the current cash deal terms, as well as trying to persuade Anheuser Busch to accept a lower deal price as tumbling stock markets wipe out trillions of dollars of assets worldwide.

"Could the purchase of Anheuser Busch be delayed ? Could the purchase be restructured? Inbev has repeated stated that it still expects the deal to close by the end of the year.

InBev, which makes Stella Artois Beer and Beck's Beer, has repeatedly said the deal remains on track. But Anheuser's shares have remained well below the $70 deal price, proving at least some investors are skeptical.

Considering what's happened with the financial meltdown, it's just a really serious situation. If they are able to close a deal at the current terms, they're going to be handicapped for years. It's very much in their interest to try to renegotiate."

InBev planned to take a $45 billion jumbo loan to finance the deal, along with other debt.

Lenders signed up for a first round of funding in August, but a second round of loan syndication has been going more slowly in recent weeks due to the global financial crisis, sources told Reuters.

Other analysts agree that InBev's offer now values the U.S. maker of Budweiser and Michelob too highly, especially if consumers worldwide are less likely to open a cold one.

In a recent example, private equity buyers of radio station operator Clear Channel Communications negotiated a lower deal price in May after debt financing costs surged and their lenders balked at the transaction. That was before a wider financial crisis erupted in September.

InBev could also renegotiate the deal so some or all of it could be paid in InBev shares, rather than cash, she said.

Anheuser Busch shares fell further Friday ( closing at $56.93) and traded nearly 20% below the proposed price of the InBev NV acquisition amid continued jitters about the deal, while InBev said it was committed to the acquisition at the agreed-upon terms.  On the other hand, Anheuser shares are up more than 10% from where they were in May before merger speculation sent them soaring. The two companies formally agreed on a deal in July.

Without a pending deal, some analysts feel that Anheuser shares would trade in the mid-$30s.

Another needle in InBev's side is Mexico's Grupo Modelo, which is half-owned by Anheuser.

Modelo, which makes Corona, has begun arbitration against Anheuser, claiming Anheuser did not consult it about the deal, even though Modelo has a right to choose its partner.

Anheuser and InBev have both said Modelo's claims lacked merit and would not interrupt the deal. A Modelo spokeswoman said that for now, the brewer just wants its rights to be respected.

The companies are facing other complications to the deal. InBev recently said "unprecedented volatility" in capital markets has forced the company to delay raising new equity that was intended to help fund the deal. At that time the company said it still expected to complete the purchase by the end of the year and instead of raising equity, the company would rely on a bridge loan, which expires six months after the deal closes.

Traders also point to other factors in play. One arbitrage trader said many investors are selling stocks such as Anheuser-Busch simply because they need the cash.

 

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John Womeldorf REALTOR Mr Williamsburg.com ABR, E-Pro

Williamsburg, VA

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