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The Bradley Effect...AND...The Gaspari Factor...!!!

By
Title Insurance with Patriot Land Transfer, Inc.

Yes, with one week to go before the presidential election takes place, many are discussing polls, their accuracy, their history, their bias, their true predictability value, etc...  

Most of us are acquainted with the 'Bradley Effect'...  

From Wikipedia:

The Bradley effect, less commonly called the Wilder effect, is a proposed explanation for observed discrepancies between voter opinion polls and election outcomes in some American political campaigns when a white candidate and a non-white candidate run against each other.  Named for Tom Bradley, an African-American who lost the 1982 California governor's race despite being ahead in some voter polls, the Bradley effect refers to an alleged tendency on the part of some voters to tell pollsters that they are undecided or likely to vote for a black candidate, and yet, on election day, vote for his/her white opponent.   

Compare this with the more simply stated and 'in your face' Gaspari Factor: 'The Gaspari Factor' simply operates on the basis of people's tendencies to lie about age, weight, and voting preference...hence, greatly exaggerated poll results...!  

 

 

The basis for this goes back to the 50s and 60s when my Dad, a lifelong democrat, confided in me that he always registered 'Republican' because of Republican controlled local government, but he always voted 'Democrat'...because of his union affiliation...!  

 

 

Moral of the story...don't put too much confidence in polls...Study, reflect, pray, discern...then vote...your LIFE and the LIFE OF YOUR FAMILY depends on it...!!!

 

 

                                                    

Fran Gaspari
Patriot Land Transfer, Inc. - Limerick, PA
"The Title Man" - Title Insurance - PA & NJ

Jim,

Polls or no polls...I'm voting LIFE...!!! Thanks,   Joe, The Plumber

Oct 29, 2008 03:08 AM
Titanium Real Estate
Titanium Real Estate, Ltd. - Naples, FL

JTP

Me too.  If people looked past the rhetoric and into the issues on this presidential election there is only one logical conclusion, McCain/Palin.

Oct 29, 2008 01:28 PM
Titanium Real Estate
Titanium Real Estate, Ltd. - Naples, FL

JTP:

I have a question for you.  How does a Catholic, a Christian or a Jew justify voting against LIFE in this election and then continue to call themselves a Catholic, a Christian or a Jew?  This really has me baffled.

Oct 29, 2008 01:31 PM
Susan McQuaide
Keller Williams - Simpsonville, SC

Fran -if it makes you feel any better, my husband has been a teamster for 18 years - his entire terminal is voting McCain - in fact, some wear McCain/Palin tee shirts to work...now that's hope and change you can believe in!

Oct 29, 2008 01:39 PM
Fran Gaspari
Patriot Land Transfer, Inc. - Limerick, PA
"The Title Man" - Title Insurance - PA & NJ

Titanium: McCain/Palin are Americas only hope!!!

Titanium: I am equally baffled...!!!

Thanks,   Joe, The Plumber

Oct 29, 2008 01:42 PM
Titanium Real Estate
Titanium Real Estate, Ltd. - Naples, FL

Susan:

That is amazing.  A terminal that actually thinks on its own and goes against the union bosses.  Now that is refreshing.

Oct 29, 2008 01:44 PM
Fran Gaspari
Patriot Land Transfer, Inc. - Limerick, PA
"The Title Man" - Title Insurance - PA & NJ

Susan,

I'm proud of the teamsters...!!! They're good Joes! Thanks,   Joe, The Plumber

Oct 29, 2008 01:44 PM
Linda Mae Croom
Topock, AZ
(928) 768-3040

Titanium, I am a Christian and I am voting for the Only Christian running in this campaign. The one that declares Jesus is Lord and died for his sins and that his favorite book is the Bible and that it is the book that shaped his life.

I cannot conceive of voting for the "other guy" who is ashamed of the name of Jesus and when asked about "Jesus" says "I told you I am a Baptist and that is ALL I am going to say about this subject.

I guess my question is "how can any Christian vote for a heathen and not vote for a born again Christian?"

Anyway as to the original post. I guess we all have to wait til Nov. 5th to see who wins. I have no confidence in the polls but I do have confidence that God's Will is that the true Born-again Christian will win.

Oct 29, 2008 01:47 PM
Barbara Carter
Century 21 Alliance Realty Group - Highland, NY
Serving Your Real Estate Needs in the Hudson Valle

Hey Joe- You hit the nail on the head with this one, as always I could not agree more. We have to pray, discern and VOTE! Have faith, my friend- If God is For Us Who Can Be Against! ;) LIFE IS GOOD!

Oct 29, 2008 02:02 PM
Titanium Real Estate
Titanium Real Estate, Ltd. - Naples, FL

Linda:

Obama is disingenuous.  If he is truly born again, he would not be such an avid proponent of infanticide.  He would be against it. The truth is, Obama has no backbone.  He has not stood up against his party leaders on major issues not once.  Standing up for infanticide should not be misconstrued as standing up for Jesus.

Obama stated on a George Stephanapolis interview, "My Muslim faith.."  This is where his faith lies.  Not with Christianity.

I don't care how tired someone is, they don't screw up like that.  I never once have ever said "My Muslim faith" and I cannot think of any moment in the future that I would ever say that because I am a Christian.  I also would never talk about the 57 states instead of 50 states.  That was drummed into my head in Grammar school.  If I were a Muslim, I might think about the 57 Muslim states though.

If you can vote for infanticide and think it's the right thing to do, it's your judgement day.  I hear babies crying.

Oct 29, 2008 02:03 PM
Hugh Krone
Weichert Referral Associates - Hamburg, NJ
Realtor, Sussex County NJ

Titanium- way too many big words for Linda. Keep it simple

There is no such thing as a pro- choice Christian.

Oct 29, 2008 02:15 PM
Meyer Leibovitch
RE/MAX Elite Services, Nurit Coombe Team - North Bethesda, MD
REALTOR Boyds, MD

It's glad to see people voting with their hearts. We live in a democratic republic and there is no room for socialism. A vote for Obama is a hard left turn towards redistribution and socialist policies. Does anyone really think Obama is telling the truth? He hails from the Chicago political machine whose mantra is "Deny, deny, deny."

Oct 29, 2008 02:16 PM
Broker Nick
South Florida Real Estate & Development, Inc. - Coconut Creek, FL
Broker Nick Relocation Broker Service

Fran ~ All I can say is that Jesus says...You will know them by their fruits.

McCain stands for protection of life.

Obama voted four times Not to save Babies Born Alive....Obama votes for death

McCain votes for Life...Jesus Is Life.

For Christians to say they are voting for a true Christian really have to do some deep soul searching.

Would Jesus vote for someone who voted not to protect innocent babies?

 

Oct 29, 2008 02:18 PM
Titanium Real Estate
Titanium Real Estate, Ltd. - Naples, FL

I am calling out for all Christians to fall on their faces and pray tonight.

The Obamanite Christians need to pray for wisdom and to search their soul for the Holy Spirit to talk to them about their vote for a pro abortion candidate.

The Christian who is voting McCain/Palin should pray for the Obamanite Christians to seek wisdom through the Holy Spirit and for the Lord to save those Obamanite Christians who are lost.

 

Oct 29, 2008 02:23 PM
Fran Gaspari
Patriot Land Transfer, Inc. - Limerick, PA
"The Title Man" - Title Insurance - PA & NJ

Linda Mae:

"Matthew 7:21
"Not everyone who says to me, 'Lord, Lord,' will enter the kingdom of heaven, but only he who does the will of my Father who is in heaven."  and

Deuteronomy 30..."This day I call heaven and earth as witnesses against you that I have set before you life and death, blessings and curses. Now choose life, so that you and your children may live..."

There is only one candidate who chooses LIFE...! Thanks,   Joe, The Plumber

Oct 29, 2008 02:47 PM
Fran Gaspari
Patriot Land Transfer, Inc. - Limerick, PA
"The Title Man" - Title Insurance - PA & NJ

Barbara: Life IS Good...My Phillies just won the 2008 World Series...!!!

Titanium: Relax and trust the Lord...By their fruits shall you know them...!

Hugh: Keep the faith, brother!!!

Meyer: I never did like hard lefts!!!

Nicholas: Jesus is LIFE and He is also TRUTH...!

Thanks,   Joe, The Plumber

Oct 29, 2008 03:00 PM
Titanium Real Estate
Titanium Real Estate, Ltd. - Naples, FL

Fran:

Thanks.  I can always count on you to have the steady hand in the midst of the storm.

Oct 29, 2008 03:06 PM
Fran Gaspari
Patriot Land Transfer, Inc. - Limerick, PA
"The Title Man" - Title Insurance - PA & NJ

Titanium,

The Joy of the Lord is my strength...and He is my salvation!!! Alleluia!!! Thanks   Joe, The Plumber

Oct 29, 2008 03:24 PM
Cheryl Willis
RE/MAX Solutions- OZARK MISSOURI - Mount Vernon, MO
MO Broker - Mt Vernon, Monett, Aurora, Barry & Law

heard on a show last night that you shouldn't listen to polls, count Yard Signs!  Give welcome to our new President..........RE/MAX!    be good  cw

Oct 30, 2008 03:09 AM
Fran Gaspari
Patriot Land Transfer, Inc. - Limerick, PA
"The Title Man" - Title Insurance - PA & NJ

Cheryl,

We all know the cities are blue and the suburbs are red...Hands down, we win in my area...my kids are always counting yard signs...!!! Still, too many people think we have an even choice!!! There is no choice for Americans!!! Thanks,   Fran

Oct 30, 2008 03:15 AM