WHY THE REPUBLICANS ARE OUT AND THE DEMOCRATS ARE IN: MY MOOVING THOUGHTS
November 6th, 2008 categories: Assessing the Local Market
I guess most of America is either elated or downright depressed this week given the outcome of the election.
A lot of people are speculating on why Obama won … what contributed to his popularity and what has sent the Republicans packing.
Here are a few of my thoughts:
1. People generally are moving away from loyalty to a political party and are voting on issues that are important to them.
It amazed me during this election how many people that characteristically would have voted for a candidate of a political party were open to voting for either of the candidates. Many did not know who they would vote for even up to the last several days. I believe that most Americans are truly sick of party politics and just want the leader that they perceive will represent their interests best.
2. The Economy was (no doubt) the #1 issue even though most people don’t actually understand how the economy works.
As someone that was “schooled” in Economics in College and has continued to follow the market and economic picture as a whole for some time, it has always amazed me how uniformed the general population is concerning how the Economy actually works and functions.
In this election (as in all elections), the President either gets credit or is blamed for the condition of the Economy. Actually, the president’s policies are only a small part of the equation. Congress, the Fed, world events, technology, the ability of American businesses to compete in the world market, etc. all have MAJOR roles in determining the condition of the Economy. It really is silly to give credit/blame to the President alone.
Regardless, Bush got blamed for the current economic situations and so the Republican’s became “out of favor.” President Bush simply failed at defending his decisions while in office. Leadership is defined not only by your decisions but by your ability to convince others to follow you. Essentially, you have to have charisma and be a good communicator in order to get others to follow you. President Bush has been entirely too passive on that front which is interesting given the fact that the majority of Americans have accumulated more, spent more and lived at a generally high standard of living during his term.
3. Obama was able to effectively link McCain with Bush.
Since the Economy was the #1 issue and Bush was blamed for it, Obama was able to effectively link McCain with Bush and thus McCain was defeated on that front.
4. People have a “HURRY UP AND DO SOMETHING” mindset when things start getting hard. Obama represents “DOING SOMETHING” to most people.
Obama’s chant for CHANGE won over thoroughly given rising gas prices, the Financial Bailout and the war. However, change for change sake is not necessarily a good motivation. It is my opinion that the consequences of what will truly change are not generally understood by most people. The election of Obama will give a mandate to Congress that his policies are desired by the American population and his plan of action includes a lot of spending.
The problem is that if you increase spending, it’s got to come from somewhere. We’re already overspending on bailing out the Financial System. Adding additional spending is ludicrous. Taxes will have to increase. Even though the Democrats emphasize that the increases will only be felt by the wealthy, that means that the wealthy will have less to invest in the overall economy … which ultimately impacts the individual in terms of the quantity of jobs, overall prices, interest rates, etc. Most people just don’t understand that.
All of that is not to endorse the Republican agenda as the Republican way has its downside too. Business is driven largely by greed so excesses can occur (as we’ve seen with this year’s Financial System Meltdown).
It seems that we just cycle back and forth between political parties (Democrats to Republicans to Democrats etc.) with no real balance achieved.
5. Obama fills a void that Bush left open. He is, in fact, a GOOD communicator (whether he truly “Leads” well is yet to be seen).
No doubt, whether you agree with his policies or not, Obama’s personality is way more appealing than McCain’s. He speaks with a cadence similar to a Southern Baptist preacher and he is likeable. His charm won, Hands Down!
6. Other issues (e.g., moral and religious) took the back seat to the Economy.
How Obama stands on issues that historically have been important to most Republicans (e.g., abortion, religious freedoms, and gun control) were generally overlooked as being secondary issues even though he likely have great impact on these issues during his term of office.
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My favorite saying has become “IT IS WHAT IT IS.” Like it or not, the reality is that we have elected a new administration. The Republicans are out and the Democrats are in.
What we can do is hope (and pray) that the any changes that do, in fact, occur will be for the good (made with a long term perspective) and not for evil (made with political agendas and a short term focus).
Change takes time though. So, for now, we continue to move forward with the information that we have. The rest, I guess we’ll just have to wait and see.
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