Are you ready to see how Lancaster County is REALLY doing with home sales?  If so, here we go...

In order to see the trends, let's also look at the Listings/Sales graphs for the last 2 years:

First, let's look at closed sales.  October sales were down 19% from 2007, which you can also see on the graph inside the blue circled areas.  The key point is where the 2008 sales curve is going.  If the trend continues as it did in 2007, you can see where the pink line will go...the market should bottom out around 215 homes sold this coming January if the trend continues. 

By the way, it's important to note that the 2008/2007 trend in sales has been -24%, so being -19% isn't all that crazy given the tremendous negative media in October!

The new listings curve is closely following 2007, with October new listings only down 4% versus last year.

Homes going under agreement in Lancaster County fell 19% from 2007, to 326 units.  This is tracking with the downturn in sales since these pending sales are likely to close in November.

Of course, with all the pricing challenges we're facing in Lancaster County, it's expected to see the familiar jump in expired listings (+18%) as agents fail to sell their client's homes in greater numbers.  Lastly, the number of active listings was also up (+11%) over 2007 levels, not surprisingly.

Analysis: The Lancaster County PA Real Estate market is down over last year - like that's a surprise.  However, compared to the doom & gloom and dire media predictions, the local market is performing better than may be expected. Of course, it's going to be a long winter with 1,231 Realtors active in a market with 215 homes sold...