Well I too share Jim's optimism, and today I had an accepted deal with a Weichert agent.

I don't mind the cheer leaders for our industry. I think we need more of them.  I tip my hat to your organization. I just can't get happy about the item of new construction from the Commerce department.

No one mentions that new construction starts hit a 30 year low lasy year. My developers and investors are not doing so well. I am selling new waterfront homes and lots. The days of taking orders and closing in 6 months are over. We are still in a national market correction for 2007 but the real estate bubble never bursted but it has a slow leak!

Without meaning to sound Pollyanna, I believe a positive attitude makes sense in ANY situation, and in ANY market.  Recently I attended a seminar where we wwere each encouraged to think about our worst client ever...in great detail.  Then, we were each given a scrap of paper and told to write down this client's name.  All of us in the room looked nervously at one another.  Who among us was willing to now write down this proprietary and confidential piece of information?  Well, ultimately, we all did.  Then the presenter told us to destroy our papers. 

The point?  If you think, discuss and dwell on negative experiences, that's what you'll get back.  If you think, discuss and dwell on positive issues, that's what you get back.  Maybe Mr. Weichert, a much more wealthy and successful person than Jaynee, is on to something!

Isn't Michael a bowl of fun?  I would rather follow Mr. Wiechert.

Thanks everyone, for getting this discussion rolling.  I think that market analyisis is never all doom and gloom.  If done right, the person doing the analysis looks at the facts, and then has to look for how it effects their client.  If prices are too low for those builders to recover their costs, then a different approach may be neccessary.  Leases and purchase options might be the best option they can get in some markets.  Timely analysis can turn that into good news for them, so you can quickly help them focus on cash flow instead of net gain.  Seeing a pitfall before you step in it is always a good thing.  If you know the pit is there, you might be able to turn it into an opportunity...fill it with water, and sell swimclub memberships!

I don't think that Jim is simply looking on the bright side of things, though.  He seems to have a very solid "big picture" view of things.  Too many times, I think analysts get tunnel vision and focus too narrowly on one aspect.  He seems to take it all in, and come up with a very sound view, that weighs all the factors.  I can only hope that my analysis skills will develop that well.

Thanks for the info, great things still to come.

Rich... as so many have mentioned, yes, positive cheer is great. And not to sound negative, I also respect reality. The New Jersey market is in a funk and I don't see a turn around until late summer possibly. I have talked to realtors, title people, and other loan officers from Wildwood to North Jersey. Rates aren't the issue. Rates have are lower now than they were 2 to 3 years ago.

Sorry, I guess what I am getting at is... I am very positive most often. There is more to it than just rates. The news is scaring the consumer and with the news of so many foreclosures, people have gotten scared. Part of the problem is that home prices are slightly higher, which makes the payment high. Hence part of the reason for foreclosures. We do need to educate, we do need to be positive, and to stay focused.

You talk about energy prices..... very key and so is job security. With gas prices so high and no relief in site, people need to save more. The medium income can't support these prices of the homes. Even if rates came down a whole percent. On a $200,000 mortgage, rate 6.5%, the P & I would be $1,264 and at 5.5%, the payment drops just $129 a month. I think this is the larger is at hand.

Again, Rich.... I think cheerleading is great.....  but as I stated, so is reality. And so many people focus on one part of it and in this case, the market/rates. Consumer spending is a little better, but in the gadgets section. NC, they are selling homes left and right. NJ?  Just an expensive state to live in. So we need to look at regions also, when giving information as above. Just my opinion.  Good post.

New Jersey has another separate issue:  High Property Taxes.  If NJ Realtors, Mortgage Brokers, and Homeowners lobby together, perhaps some change for the better will come out of it.  I think as people start tightening their belts, the begin to see things in a different light.  We have seen many people moving from DE to PA because the combined income and property tax package is often better in PA.  I am sure there are some in NJ that are looking at the same type of cost analyses, as well.  Just last month, we had someone from NYC looking in Chester County, PA -- they would save money in the long run, even with the added commute costs of riding the rails to NYC every day.

Market news is never all bad.  If a ship is sinking it is bad news.  Knowing that before your feet get wet will be looked on as welcome info.  I agree that you must deal with real issues in a realistic way. 

In our market area, Prices are about what they were last year.  Some areas have done better than others, of course.  Such is the nature of the business, I suppose.  If you want to see some of my local analyses, check out these: 

Residential Real Estate Market Analysis: Sadsbury Township

Residential Real Estate Market Analysis: Willistown Township

Residential Real Estate Market Analysis: Swarthmore Borough