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Economic news for November, 2008

By
Real Estate Agent with The Wichita Home Team with KW Signature Partners

The Labor Department reported that 240,000 jobs were lost in October, which was worse than the expected loss of 200,000 jobs. In addition, the Unemployment Rate jumped to 6.5%, up from last month's read of 6.1% and reaching the highest unemployment rate since 1994. And if the current numbers weren't bad enough, there were heavy downward revisions to August and September numbers, which erased an additional 179,000 jobs. So far in 2008, a total of 1.18 million jobs have been lost, with 651,000 job losses coming in just the past three months. Look for things to get worse before they get better, as the unemployment rate will likely top 7% soon.

Friday's Jobs Report was brutal and would typically nudge the Fed to cut their benchmark rates in an effort to spur on the economy. But with the Fed Funds Rate already at 1%, the Fed doesn't have much more room to cut. This means that Stocks, which worsen on poor economic news, will likely continue to struggle as a result.

Speaking of rate cuts, the Bank of England, the European Central Bank and a few other countries central banks all lowered interest rates last week to help their economies. The good news is that these cuts should have a positive effect on the US Dollar - and therefore will also help Dollar denominated oil prices stay near present levels.

With some of the negative economic news, Bonds did manage a huge, three-day 160bp rally in the middle part of last week, and Bonds and home loan rates were able to hang on to much of this improvement on Friday. As a result, Bonds and home loan rates ended the week nearly .25% better than where they began.

THE WEEKEND IS THE PERFECT TIME TO ENJOY SPENDING SOME OF YOUR HARD EARNED MONEY, BUT DID YOU KNOW THAT A SAFE DEPOSIT BOX MAY NOT BE THE BEST PLACE TO STASH YOUR TREASURES AND VALUABLES? CHECK OUT THIS WEEK'S MORTGAGE MARKET VIEW TO LEARN MORE.

Forecast for the Week

 

Just like last week, Friday will again be this week's big day for economic reports, as the Retail Sales Report will be released. The Retail Sales Report is a measure of the total receipts of retail stores from samples representing all sizes and kinds of business in retail trade throughout the nation. This report is the most-timely indicator of broad consumer spending patterns, and given the current economic climate, it could be very ugly. Retailers are already anticipating one of the worst Christmas seasons in a long time, so it will be important to see where things currently stand as we head into the holidays. But the dismal retail situation could spell bargains for those who are still shopping.

Remember, when Bond prices move higher, home loan rates improve. And as you can see in the chart below, Bonds did enjoy a huge rally last week on the heels of heavy losses from a few weeks ago. I will continue to be watching closely to see if Bonds can break through overhead technical resistance and help home loan rates to continue improving.

Chart: Fannie Mae 6.0% Mortgage Bond (Friday Nov 07, 2008)

The Mortgage Market View...

 

Are Safe Deposit Boxes Actually Safe?

We all have important documents and valuables in our homes that we want to protect from theft and disaster. For many people, safe deposit boxes at banks provide a safe place to store those valuables outside of the home. After all, file cabinets and even fire-resistant cases in your house are still susceptible to intense fires, water damage, and even theft.

But, did you know that safe deposit boxes may be susceptible as well? In fact, during the attack on the World Trade Center and Hurricane Katrina hundreds of bank vaults were damaged or destroyed. Worse yet, valuables stored in a safe deposit box aren't insured by the bank if damage or theft occurs.

And if you use a safe deposit box to sock away cash for an emergency, you may be surprised to know that a safe deposit box isn't completely protected. Law enforcement officers can get a court order to raid your safe deposit box, and if the IRS ever freezes your assets, that freeze includes your cash and valuables in a safe deposit box.

All this doesn't mean that you should hide valuables and cash in your closet or drawer...but it does mean you should take precautions and specific steps to make sure your valuables are protected if you put them in a safe deposit box. If you have a safe deposit box or are considering getting one, the following steps can help you make sure your documents and valuables are protected:

  • Call your homeowners insurance company to make sure the contents are covered, especially when placing jewelry or collectibles of value in the safe deposit box.
  • Put important documents such as marriage licenses, car titles, insurance policies and family records in airtight plastic bags or sealed containers to help protect them from water damage.
  • Make copies of your important documents and store them at home or with your attorney, so you can access your information if something does happen to the originals. Remember, important legal documents such as wills and power of attorney documents should always stay with your attorney. You can place copies in your safe deposit box or keep them at home, if you want to have access to the information. But leave the originals at the attorney's office.
  • Make an inventory list of everything in your safe deposit box and keep the list in a safe place at home or in another location. You may even want to take pictures or a videotape of the contents just in case you need to show more proof if something happens.
Finally, make sure you inform your family members and your attorney about your safe deposit box! Otherwise, the contents may revert to the state when you pass away.

The Week's Economic Indicator Calendar

 

Remember, as a general rule, weaker than expected economic data is good for rates, while positive data causes rates to rise.

Economic Calendar for the Week of November 10 November 14


Date ET Economic Report For Estimate Actual Prior Impact
Thu. November 13 08:30 Jobless Claims (Initial) 11/8 479K   481K Moderate
Thu. November 13 08:30 Balance of Trade Sept -$56.8B   -$59.1B Moderate
Fri. November 14 08:30 Retail Sales Oct -1.2%   -1.2% HIGH
Fri. November 14 08:30 Retail Sales ex-auto Oct -0.9%   -0.6% HIGH
Fri. November 14 10:00 Consumer Sentiment Index (UoM) Nov 57.0   57.5 Moderate

 

Data was provided by Mark Kincel and Denise Harley with Countrywide Home loans in Wichita, KS.  You can reach denise at 316-554-2839

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July, 2015 Mid-year Real Estate Report

 

For the United States, NE Oklahoma and the Grand Lake area.

 

 

 

Nationally, June Home sales were the highest of any month since the RE/MAX National Housing report began in 2008.  In the last 5 month each month’s sales were higher than the proceeding moth and the same month one year ago. The median sales price of homes sold in June was $224,671, 7% above a year ago.  Nationally, supply still lags demand with only a 3.6 month supply of housing.  A 6 month supply is a balanced market.

 

 

 

Nationally, April, May and June saw an increase in inventory but June’s inventory was still 11.8% below a year ago.  For example the DFW area reported only a 1.8 month’s supply of homes. Grand Lake’s supply of housing was almost 14 months.

 

Nationally The average home lost $13,067 of equity value in the last 9 years but over the last 3 years the value of a home went up $45,533 and that equity loss should be wiped out in another two years.  The Tulsa area was not hit nearly as bad.  The last 3 years equity gain was only $21,100 but the 9 year position was a $19,400 value increase over 2006.  The Grand Lake area is still behind values 9 years ago but values are slowly rising.  The only negative to a faster recovery will be the dramatic decrease in oil prices and increase in job losses in the oil industry and how that impacts buyers from the OKC, Tulsa and Wichita, KS area.

 

Grand Lake real estate sales

 

2015 sales started slow but are beginning to accelerate. There were 426 residential sales in the 1st 6 months of 2015, a 2.9% increase but Junes increase over June, 2014 was 40.8% or 100 sales compared to 71.

 

Pending sales at the end of June, 2015 were up 13.4% over June, 2014 and YTD pending sales were up 5%.  During June, 2015 32 homes went under contract priced over $200,000, 34 homes sold between $100,000 and $200,000 and 27 homes were sold under $100,000. 

 

The number of listings available for sale was down 11.4% at the end of June, 2015 compared to a year ago. The greatest need seems to be homes under $100,000 that are stick built so they can qualify for government loans. (USDA, FHA and VA)

 

Homes are selling at 91% of last listed price, the highest level in over a year.  If no new listings entered the market it would take about 13.5 months to sell Grand Lake’s entire inventory.  This number is three times the national average for major metro areas.

 

 

 

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Anonymous
Sharon

I recently came across your blog and have been reading along. I thought I would leave my first comment. I don't know what to say except that I have enjoyed reading. Nice blog. I will keep visiting this blog very often.


Sharon

http://www.autoloans101.info

Nov 10, 2008 01:39 PM
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