Every election cycle, potential home sellers ask me whether they should hurry and get their houses on the market to meet the housing needs of the new employees coming in to work for the new administration.  And every four years, I tell my clients anecdotal tales about how I've never seen an uptick in housing sales because of an election.  I quizzed my colleagues about this and they all agree - elections have never had an immediate impact on the housing market.

This year, faced with the same questions and a problematic housing market, I decided to go back and research this issue using statistics from our multiple listing service, MRIS.  I'm only licensed in Maryland and DC, so I've only used statistics from Washington and Montgomery County, MD.  (My agent friends in Virginia tell me they don't see an increase in housing sales because of a presidential election, but I don't have the statistics to prove that.

The Washington area changed its multiple listing service in the early 90's, so I don't have statistics for the first Clinton administration.  But I remember that most of the calls I got at that time from incoming appointees (and I had some Arkansas connections having been born there) were for rentals in the District.

Anyway, the statistics are very telling.  I ran searches of all of the properties that sold between November 1st and February 1st of an election year - a three month period to cover the election through the inauguration, and the year immediately after the election year (assuming new appointees moved to town and rented for a year before buying).  In every case, except for President Bush's election to a second term, sales were higher the year after the election rather than election year.

Here are the actual numbers or houses & condos sold between November 1 & February 1:

                                                            Washington, DC                         Montgomery County, MD

Clinton's 2nd term (96-97)                            949                                           1887

      97-98                                                   1247                                          2251

Bush's 1st term (2000-01)                            1783                                          3266

      01-02 (despite slowdown after of 9/11)     1835                                          3389

Bush's 2nd term (04-05)                               2180                                          4006

      05-06                                                   1888                                          3161

The way I explain the lack of an increase in home sales is that most appointments aren't immediate, and those appointees that are appointed sooner rather than later decide to rent for at least a year to see if they like the job and to scope our the area.