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Scripts, Tips & Quotes from the desk of...  Steve Brown, Vice-Present & General Manager, Crye-Leike, Realtors

The whipsaw of the Dow Jones index, free fall of 401s, online minute by minute reports of the latest bank or business failure, sensational headlines in the daily paper and the "doom and gloom" of the nightly news can easily cause potential homebuyers or sellers to draw up in a ball. So how do we make any sense of all of this, considering that Alan Greenspan just said that we are in the midst of a "once in a 100 year event."

In The Words Of National Speaker And Coach Rich Levin...  "STOP listening to the National News for real estate information." Many of the articles the media is reporting are dated; they report 2^nd  quarter data all the way through September. WE are the best source of information about pending, active and sold data. We are just not putting out enough current data to our Sphere of Influence and media outlets.

Here Are Some Facts That You Might Want To Make Note Of..

October 11, at the Realty Alliance meeting, former high-ranking employee at HUD and now NAR consultant Brian Chappelle said, "Washington NOW Understands The Importance Of The Housing Industry To The Economy."

EVERYTHING is on the table. Same meeting, Steve Murray, author of Real Trends, said, "September was the 1st time sales nationally increased in 36 months, up 1.9%". He feels there is definitely pent up demand because the annual rate of sales is behind the 30 year average of 4.8% of all households in the process of buying, even in stringent credit markets and downturns. 

October 15, NAR offered a 4-point plan to Congress to stimulate housing:

1. REMOVE the payback feature of the tax credit to first time buyers and expand the credit to ALL buyers of a primary residence.
    
2. Make permanent the high loan limits that would expire at the end of the year.
    
3. Use a portion of the $700 billion to provide price stabilization for housing.
    
4. Make permanent the prohibition against banks entering the real estate business.
    

October 15, at Crye-Leike's annual National Conference & EXPO, Dr. Lawrence Yun, Sr. VP and Chief Economist for NAR said, "Credit tightening and excessive pessimism is driving lower sales. The steepest declines in home prices are concentrated in areas of high sub prime loan originations; however, steep price declines attract buyers."  

It reminds me of a Warren Buffett quote, "I sell when people are buying... I buy when people are desperate."  

California has had sales increases for the past 5 months over 2007, up 65% over last September. Dr. Yun admits that we will likely see a general recession for the next 3 quarters, but housing may see gradual increases due to Congressional stimulus and attractive prices (possible change in the tax credit rules.) National sales figures are at 1998 levels, however, there are 25 million more people in the US today, 13 million more jobs and similar affordability, all pointing to pent up demand.  

October 23, Alan Greenspan, former chairman of the Federal Reserve for 18.5 years said, "A necessary condition for the current crisis to end will be stabilization in home prices... when prices finally stabilize the market freeze should begin to measurably thaw and frightened investors will take steps towards a re-engagement with risk." Congress and both presidential candidates realize that slowing the foreclosures and helping people to begin buying again is key to stabilizing prices.  

So Where Is The Opportunity In All Of This?

• First-Time Homebuyers: they don't have anything to sell, prices are cheap, sellers are willing to pay closing; Uncle Sam will at least give them a free loan for now, maybe sweeten the deal soon.
   
• Investors: prices are at or near the bottom of the market, many sellers are willing to pay closing or make other concessions.
   
• The Upper End: (over $500,000 for our markets) is soft because the move-up buyers haven't been able to buy their homes. If someone has the ability to buy without having to make a purchase contingent on selling, they can get a good deal.

Every crisis also presents opportunity. Some people made fortunes during the Great Depression. Many people will look back on this market in 2010 or 2011 and say, "I wish I'd have bought back then." Thinking long term, would you rather have your money in the stock market or in real estate? Think about it.

Read more real estate news visit Crye-Leike's News Room.