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The Housing Market - Flat, Lower or Higher In 2009?

balloons in Albuquerque NM As a New Mexico realtor, prior to one year ago, the question I was asked most frequently was what is my home worth? Now the question is more directly, about the recovery of the market. My response is repeatedly: the market will recover; it always has. The follow-up question is: when?

I don't trust my crystal ball to make such predictions. But now I have a prediction from an authoritative source - the Keller Center at Baylor University's Hanakamer School of Business in Texas. Researchers there conducted an online interview of 840 economists about the housing market and related topics. Their findings led to a consensus about the recovery of the real estate market. Housing prices are likely to stop falling by the end of 2009, say nearly three-fourths of economists in a recent survey.

Of course, that's great news for everyone, buyers and sellers alike. But especially for buyers, other questions arise. For example, will interest rates go lower, stay the same or rise? I don't trust my crystal ball on this one either, and the researchers have not reported on that topic yet.

─With thanks to the Keller Center Research Report
Baylor Business

Eloise Gift, CRS
Gift Realty NM
Your Gift For Real Estate - Your Gift For All Seasons
www.eloisegift.com
505-363-5156

Posted by Eloise Gift, New Mexico Real Estate on 11/18/2008 06:25 PM

Comments (12)

Market Recovery in the Real Estate Market Channel

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12 Comments on The Housing Market - Flat, Lower or Higher In 2009?

NOV

2008

Eloise, if we could predict the answer to your second question accurately we would be sitting on a warm beach and just raking in the money. Every prediction that I have seen about interest rates in the past have been wrong, and I have no doubt that future ones will be as well.

NOV

2008

When you have the leadership and training of Keller Williams. It's always a good time to be in any market.

George- I have to agree with you again. But as much as I find myself longing more and more for the relaxed life on that warm beach, I do believe I would miss the unpredictability that keeps me striving. Did you hear today that rates are going to be lowered again? I don't know if a prediction or certainty from someone who know.

Jeff- You sound like one of the converted -:). I appreciate the KW training. Gary is a such a motivational leader.

NOV

2008

Good post. For the follow up question, I would answer, I wish I had a crystal ball.

NOV

2008

The crystal ball would take a lot of the challenge out of the work but there are times I would really like to have a peek.

Hey, Jeff, I just finished SHIFT and Gary Keller is good at putting things into perspective and reinforcing the use of all the systems you know you should be using. Companies like ours (KW for you, EXIT ofr me) can really make a difference in market like this because we know what to do and we have a lot of support and training to help us get it done. If you have that and you are willing to do the work things will always be fine. As they say, "It works if you work it".

NOV

2008

I too wish I had the power to predict, but... the volume of houses on the market PLUS the volume that more is owed than they will appraise for (likely) years will create long-term challenges. Add to that even if money flows, we are back to the prudent loaning to those that are really credit worthy. That eliminates a huge portion of the former consumer market for houses and leaves them eliminated for years (maybe indefinitely?). The market will cycle back, I just do not believe the next upswing will be fast and it will not look like past cycles. My 2 cents. Hope it is worth that much! :-) G

NOV

2008

Gita- If wishes were horses, beggars would ride.

Deb- Congratulations on completing Shift. I see you also are a convert, too- though not completely yet. -:)

Glenn- Thanks for weighing in. Your 2 cents are worth a lot. While we have been talking here a lot has happened. Each day with new disclosures and new bailouts (new dictionary word) we seem to be see-sawing our way through attempts at finding a solution to the to the economic problems that more and more appear to be a hydra-headed monster that would drive a crystal ball to frenzy.

Eloise - I too would provide them with the information from the economists. Predicting what will happen is out of my league even the people whose job involves forecasting are at a lost.

NOV

2008

Jennifer- Happy Thanksgiving! You are so right about the forecasters. We will just keep on doing what we know we must do and wait for the chips to fall where they may.

NOV

2008

All,

Remember that generalize predictions is not a good practice in Real Estate. We must look at specific markets and analyze the inner and outer facts for that particular market.

At the end of 2009 we will be higher then we are now.

Richard

NOV

2008

JM- i probably didn't make it clear enough that I was being specific about the real estate market in my area. You are absolutely right about being specific. I have found that we have variations even within my market.

Richard- I certainly expect that prediction to be true for the Greater Albuquerque Area and I hope the same for yours too- actually for the whole country.

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