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18 Comments on Thinning the inventory herd...
Hi Lane! You're absolutely right and today (in this market, don't know about tomorrow!) the market is moving homes for first time homebuyers--if they're foreclosures for them, then that's GREAT! They'll see appreciation more than usual in the next few years and be ready to call you to buy another home in 4 or 5 years! It is a cycle and we're starting from the bottom and working up now!
Lane...I read Linsey's post as well. I think we as agents have to be careful with the advise we give. Until we get the foreclosures out of the market (and stop adding them TO the market) I have to question if we have hit the "bottom" yet.
It's our job to counsel and guide our Buyers and Sellers, but none of us has the crystal ball...if we did, we would not be in this situation. Foreclosures certainly DO count this time...they are going to have an impact on values.
I can hardly wait for tomorrow! Whenever that is!
Speaking of...we need to meet up and do lunch one of these days! We only live 2 counties apart!!!
Lane, I love your circle of life concept (I loved the Lion King). I just added a lease page to my website just a few days ago because of this circle of life stuff. I had my first hit today and when I set her search up I found 146 lease listings. I did not search that HUGE of an area either. I think a lot of them are those listings that aren't selling but it all fits in to the circle of life.
Yes, but isn't this how a housing recovery truly starts. It doesn't mean its not yet a good time to buy....you buy when everyone else is scared....
Now SELLING (at least around here) is another matter. If people don't need to sell they shouldn't. There are only a few specific circumstances where selling is a good idea in this market.
Hi Lane,
I think you're pretty much right on with this post. Except many of our REO listings aren't tired and old, they're actually some of the newer ones. They are however, the driving force in our market too in So Cal. It's just part of the process, the cycle we're in now.
The good news is that, although prices are down our sales numbers are up in 2008 compared to 2007.
Yep, history always repeats itself. Real estate is cyclical, things are bound to improve ans the self-correction continues...
Good perspective that life is full of cycles. We need to keep them in a realistic perspective.
Debe - I have a guy that is on the edge right now. He really wants to buy, but he is nervous. He doesn't have a property to sell... And we are looking at forclosures (or anything that is a great deal...). He is the face of the new market for the next few months at least.
Thom - Can't do it today, but we need to... we can meet someplace neutral like DeKalb...
Marchel - I have been surprised by the number of leases available as well... I think they are the next glut.
Ruthmarie - Investors should be going bananas right now. I see properties that can cashflow as soon as next month.
Lynda - As properties they don't have to be the old and sick... it is as listings. they are the ones that are distressed. I know of a foreclosure right now that is 2 years old and perfect... another that is 4 years old and perfect. But they are still distressed and underpriced.
Janna - It sure does. And we all will be hating it when people are looking back 6 or 8 months wishing they had purchased... and we will hate it if people are looking back 6 or 8 months wishing they hadn't.
Ann - Perspective is important.
Thank you, Lane, Linsey's post is a great read. I almost missed it.
Wow Lane. I appreciate the feedback and the link love. By accident the post was stuck for several hours at the top of the AR blogs page and I had an unusal amount of traffic. Glad that it was a post that started a great conversation. I've been fascinated by the feedback and thought your point was spot on. Thanks.
I agree we need to get the inventory down and when that happens we will create a bit more demand and get our market back "Normal".
Lane,
We have had a few "blips" here that show it is working toward a remedy and the inventory needs to thin to get ready for the spring rush to sell and move.
Foreclosures matter in a number of ways. The rental market begins to get crowded as more and more people look for rentals and the number of foreclosures affect prices. Unfortunately, I think that we will see an increase in foreclosures in the near future.
Huiting - Glad I was able to point you to it.
Linsey - There are a lot of conversations we need to have... with each other AND with consumers. Good job.
Terry - I like seeing the new inventory down here in Gwinnett... especially with sales moving up a little.
Dan - I hope there is a spring rush.
HRG - I think that we will see a slight increase in foreclosures, but I would be that it won't be anything like what is predicted. And they certainly matter. Anyone trying to NOT include them in market reports is missing the boat.
Uh, when the thinning gets so close my office is down to my wife, Kim the magnificent and three outside LO's I call a halt to it. Especially when we're still geared up for 22 employees! Hey, if I don't talk to you before then -and I probably will- please have a happy and safe Thanksgiving.
Ken - I'll call you so that you can be sure to talk to me before T-day.
Excellent point, Lane! Much as I hate to deal with HUD homes and REOs, we will need to get through them.
Cheers,
Robin
Robin - I don't particularly like dealing with them, but they are the reality of today.