Loon Mountain & Lincoln/Woodstock New Hampshire Market Reports

Thanks in no small part to my new-found family and support-group at ActiveRain, I've recently had the pleasure of meeting a handful of truly magnificent Realtors - from right here in my own home state of New Hampshire - who I may never have had the opportunity to meet otherwise. Based solely on my own observations thus far (and please, feel free to jump in and correct me if I'm wrong), a large majority of AR members appear to be from the west coast. I would ask that my readers, of course, draw their own conclusions, but come on...

HOW GREAT IS THAT?!?!?

In the words of American Idol's Randy Jackson, let's "give props" from the "dog-pound" ... or, more appropriately, the "Moose-Pound" ... to each and every AR member! Now, with that said, I am adding yet another name to my most recent blog (see Education AR-Style Better than Sliced-Bread). A truly phenomenal woman, as well as a fellow New Hampshire Realtor, Mrs. Monika McGillicuddy gets my vote as one of my own, personal "Featured Members"! As noted above, not only has AR helped to introduce me to several of my own local Realtors, but Monika McGillicuddy - one of the finest representatives of this very group - has provided me with sufficient guidance and continued "thumbs-up" to produce this first-in-a-series of New Hampshire Market Reports, with a focus on the Loon Mountain & Lincoln/Woodstock areas!

The statewide chart and data reflected within the attached NHAR Real Estate Market Trends report (below) breaks these statistical figures down, yet a step further, to include 1st Quarter Sales figures for each of our ten (10) counties. Grafton Co, NH is the location of Loon Mountain as well as the communities of Lincoln/Woodstock.

Mr. Peter Francese - an articulate author who provides his analysis for NHAR through this Real Estate Market Trends April '07 report - succinctly focuses our attention on the fact that New Hampshire - although having avoided much of the "sub-prime tsunami" (IMHO, a misnomer) that has afflicted others - is facing what he terms a "negative natural increase". I urge anyone who's read this far to not simply scan this invaluable article, but to read it in its entirety. I would appreciate any/all suggestions as to what small part I might play in helping my great state to overcome this looming concern too.

Prior to the state and county figures (provided by NNEREN, our MLS), I have provided a brief 1st Quarter Report of my own, specific to the Loon Mountain area (Lincoln/Woodstock communities) that I call home. I have deliberately focused my analyses on condominiums, as the majority of properties in our Resort Village are vacation/second homes rather than residential. Although presentation may be lacking in this brief report, I proudly state, with the utmost of confidence, that all figures and analyses are factual and accurate. With that said, let's get the (perceived) worst behind us by starting off with a quote from Mr. Francese...

• "Condominium sales were down 12.6 percent compared to the first quarter of last year".

That, of course, is a statewide drop. For those prospective NH Property Buyers, this should be a red-flag of sorts for you. If you have been wavering on the sidelines, wondering where the market's going to go next, I beseech you, please ... for your own benefit ... do not wait much longer. Mortgage rates are still relatively low, but speculative forecasts project that this, too, cannot last forever. In addition, as Mr. Francese is quick to point out, the NH Housing Market has managed to avoid the widespread foreclosures that so many other areas have been pummeled by. Even without the addition of foreclosed properties, the housing inventory currently available in NH is still solid. As a result, NH Property Buyers will find that NH Property Sellers are offering far more incentives than would have been done during the unsustainable boom market. The majority of adjustments such as these are directly attributable to that very boom, and buyers are well-advised to take full advantage of it while it lasts.

For those NH Property Sellers, make note of these very same statistical-facts, remain open-minded, keep an open-line of communication with your Realtor, and - in addition to really listening to his/her advice, and to the extent possible - remain actively involved throughout the entire process. A property sale, although oftentimes trying and emotional, should be viewed, first-and-foremost, as a Business Transaction ... and likely the largest that one will make in their lifetime. Those currently reading this who may have New Hampshire Homes for Sale, be as flexible in your housing demands/requirements as you feel comfortable with, and realize that the above advice to buyers is likely being given by multiple 1000's more around the nation.

Here's how Condo sales in and around Loon Mountain (Lincoln/Woodstock, NH) have fared in the first quarter of this year, as compared to that of 2006. Please note that this analysis is made up of all condo-types, inclusive of quarter-shares:

• In January of '06, thirteen (13) condominium sales closed, ranging from $18K to $430K. The average DOM's ("days on market") was 86
• In January of '07, nine (9) condominium sales closed, ranging from $35K to $500K. The average DOM's ("days on market") was 128

• In February of '06, eighteen (18) condominium sales closed, ranging from $25K to just shy of $400K. The average DOM's ("days on market") was 102
• In February of '07, ten (10) condominium sales closed, ranging from $27K to just over $600K. The average DOM's ("days on market") was 238

• In March of '06, fourteen (14) condominium sales closed, ranging from $29K to $525K. The average DOM's ("days on market") was 88
• In March of '07, thirteen (13) condominium sales closed, ranging from $32K to $283K. The average DOM's ("days on market") was 178

See that pattern? With the exception of the high-end of the sales price-range for March '07, the year-to-year price-comparisons for each month of the 1st quarter increased in every aspect across the board ... as did the DOM's! In contrast, the actual number of units sold decreased from year-to-year, also across the board. With the limited property sales activity, the one anomaly (max price-range dropped from March '06 to March of '07) proved easy enough to explain. The communities of Lincoln and Woodstock New Hampshire are a major tourist destination in the Northeast, making the Travel & Tourism industry our area's largest employer. As such, we cater to a wide variety of customers, guests, and clientele. We pride ourselves in the fact that we offer "something fun for everyone" ... including those of us in the NH Housing Sector. In March of '06, four (4) of the 14 closings were what Las Vegas would refer to as "Whales", buying properties above this year's statewide average sales-price of $292,200.00

Thoughts, comments, suggestions and/or constructive-criticisms on this - the first Market Report for the Lincoln/Woodstock/Loon area of New Hampshire, would be a tremendous help and much-appreciated. With any luck, the "local" presentation (above) can be cleaned-up and refined before submitting the next (shorter) NH Market Report!

* Moose Photo, courtesy of: brewrat

* This state report (below) is reprinted with permission from the NHAR.

Spring is around the corner, we hope

APRIL 2007   Spring is Around the Corner, We Hope -by Peter Francese Well, spring is coming, sort of.  April has certainly lived up to its reputation as the  cruelest month.  The only nice thing we can say about it is that at least the aquifers are full. From a Realtor's point of view, the first quarter of 2007 was better than feared but not impressive.  Residential sales, excluding condominiums and manufactured homes, were down 6.1 percent compared to the first quarter of last year, and the average home took a full month longer to sell.        "We need more starter homes to attract more young adults ..." But average residential sale price ($292,200) was just 2.5 percent below last year, and the average condominium sale price ($209,000) was 3.5 percent higher.  Condominium unit sales were down 12.6 percent compared to the first quarter of last year, whereas residential unit sales were down 6  percent.     The first quarter data reminds me of a prize fighter at the end of the fifth round of a bruising contest.  Having survived four punishing rounds in 2006, the pugilist thinks Round 5 wasn't all that bad, is happy to be standing up and is looking forward to the next round. As the table below shows, first quarter sales were down in all counties except Rockingham and Strafford.  Average sale prices rose in Strafford, Sullivan and Belknap counties. The average sale price statewide has slipped below $300,000, where it had been since 2005, but prices in the four counties with the highest values (Rockingham, Carroll, Belknap and Hillsborough) have remained above that figure. County Units sold 1Q change '06 to '07 Avg. price 1Q change '06 to '07 Migration net '05 to '06 Belknap 138 -16% $337,200 +10% 148 Carroll 146 -22% $344,500 -4% 536 Cheshire 134 -14% $217,900 -5% 215 Coos 75 -3% $111,900 -2% -19 Grafton 157 -11% $246,800 -7% 528 Hillsborough 634 -10% $304,400 -2% 178 Merrimack 257 -2% $267,000 -5% 998 Rockingham 496 +5% $351,200 -6% 981 Strafford 240 +4% $267,800 +2% 493 Sullivan 95 -2% $210,000 +3% 211 Statewide 2,372 -6% $292,200 -3% 4,270 Source:  Northern New England Real Estate Network (NNEREN), except migration figures, which are Census Bureau estimates.  Statistics are based on information from NNEREN for the respective periods shown for the respective regions in the State of New Hampshire or all towns in the State of New Hampshire. All analysis and commentary related to the statistics is that of the New Hampshire Association of REALTORS® and not that of NNEREN.   The migration data in the last column are the net interstate migration plus immigration numbers from mid-2005 to mid-2006.  They are below the six year (2000 to 2006) annual average for every county except Grafton.  This is another indicator that population growth, which drives a lot of housing demand, is slowing. The New Hampshire population growth rate is now 0.6 percent per year, which is below the nationwide annual growth rate of 1.0 percent, but far above the 0.1 percent annual growth rate for the other New England states.  Maintaining our status as the fastest growing state in the region, however, is not much to brag about. In addition, our aging population is starting to affect the state's overall growth rate.  Five counties now have more deaths that births, which obviously diminishes growth and is called negative natural increase.  They are Coos, Carroll, Sullivan, Belknap and Grafton. The New Hampshire housing market appears to have avoided being pummeled by an excess of sub-prime mortgages, speculative buying gone bad and subsequent widespread foreclosures that have afflicted other states.  But avoiding that bad stuff is not sufficient to ignite a long-term recovery from last year's sales decline. We need more starter homes to attract more young adults of childbearing age to replace the ones we have lost since 1990 and reverse the negative natural increase described above.  Because the number of births have been declining for some years, elementary school enrollment is dropping in every county in the state.  This is not a good trend, because it foretells rapidly rising cost per child and shrinking support for public education, which ultimately will diminish demand for housing. Home sales will surely rise as spring finally shows itself.  But it's the longer term picture we should all be concerned about.  Without more young people, we will surely lose one of the more precious things we have:  the New Hampshire Advantage.     The Real Estate Market Trends newsletter is provided for the benefit of the members of the New Hampshire Association of REALTORS®, Inc.  ©Copyright 2007 New Hampshire Association of REALTORS®, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Peter Francese is the Demographic Advisor to the New Hampshire Association of REALTORS®.