The Not Some Doom and Gloom Report – November 2008
 
Some positive financial and real estate market results that I think you should be made aware of.  With all the negative publicity day in and day out, just wanted to be sure that some positive information was also getting enough ‘air time’.  So here are some of my thoughts and articles that I compiled to explain current market conditions for our area.
 
Part One – Mortgage Money

The media would have you believe that no one can get a mortgage out there or only the elite are doing it but that just isn’t the case.  This Mortgage Banking article says that in our area for the first half of 2008 we were churning out the loans – 20,009 to be exact in Cook County.  We happen to be #2 in the entire U.S.
 
People are refinancing their homes for whatever reason and that is also moving along smoothly with Cook County leading the way and then DuPage County in the 11th spot.  That’s a total of 92,099 people that refinanced their home successfully in our area!
 
So where’s that shortage of mortgage money everyone is talking about?
 
Top 25 Counties Nationwide for Purchase Markets – June 2008
 
#2     Cook County IL         20,009             $4,300,222,907
 
 
Top 25 Counties Nationwide for Refinance Markets – June 2008
 
#1     Cook County IL          73,805                 $14,013,656,297
#11  DuPage County IL       18,294                 $ 3,436,779,303
 
PDF of Mortgage Banking Article, November 2008


Part Two – Price and Sales

Highlights from the National Assn. of Realtors – Housing Report on Sales (Prices across the U.S.) - Four out of five metropolitan areas recorded lower home prices in the third quarter from a year earlier, while existing-home sales fell in 32 states from the second quarter.
 
In the third quarter, 28 out of 152 metropolitan statistical areas showed increases in median existing single-family home prices from the same quarter in 2007; four were unchanged and 120 metros experienced declines. NAR’s track of metro area home prices dates back to 1979.
 
Distressed sales, foreclosures and short sales - accounted for 35 to 40 percent of transactions in the third quarter, pulling down the national median existing single-family price to $200,500, which is 9 percent lower than the third quarter of 2007.
 
A year ago, when there were significantly fewer distressed transactions, the median price was $220,300. The median price is where half of the homes sold for more and half sold for less.
 
Strongest Sales Gains - The largest sales gain during the third quarter was in Arizona, up 28.3 percent from the second quarter, followed by California which rose 28.1 percent and Nevada, up 26.2 percent.
 
The steepest declines in single-family home prices in the third quarter were in three California markets: the Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario area, where the median price of $227,200 dropped 39.4 percent from a year ago, followed by Sacramento-Arden-Arcade-Roseville at $212,000, down 36.8 percent from the third quarter of 2007, and San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, where the price dropped 36 percent to $377,300.
 
The largest single-family home price increase in the third quarter was in the Elmira, New York area, where the median price of $105,000 rose 12.5 percent from a year ago. Next was Decatur, Illinois at $93,400, up 8.7 percent from the third quarter of 2007, followed by the Bloomington-Normal, Illinois area, where the third-quarter median price increased 8.1 percent to $168,400.
 
The typical seller purchased their home six years ago and is experiencing net equity gains. The national increase in value since the third quarter of 2002 is 18.3 percent, which is a median gain of $31,000. Even with the current downward price distortion, 90 percent of metro areas are showing six-year price gains.
 
Condo Markets –
The strongest condo price increases were in the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington area, where the third quarter price of $149,900 rose 11.1 percent from a year earlier, followed by Bismarck, North Dakota at $148,000, up 11 percent, and the Houston-Baytown-Sugar Land area, where the median condo price of $134,100 rose 8.1 percent from the third quarter of 2007.
 
The second most expensive condo market reported was the New York-Wayne-White Plains area of New York and New Jersey at $324,000, followed by Honolulu at $322,000.
 
Other affordable condo markets include the Indianapolis area at $113,500 and the Cincinnati-Middletown area of Ohio, Kentucky and Indiana, at $117,300 in the third quarter.
 
Part Three - Market Snapshot by Regions
 
Midwest:  existing-home sales rose 2.7 percent in the third quarter to a pace of 1.15 million but remain 10.6 percent below a year ago. The median existing single-family home price in the Midwest declined 5.5 percent to $159,900 in the third quarter from the same period in 2007. After Decatur and Bloomington-Normal, the next strongest metro price increase in the Midwest was in the Wichita, Kansas area, where the median price of $125,300 was 5.5 percent higher than a year ago, followed by Champaign-Urbana, Illinois at $146,400, up 2.7 percent.
 
Part Four – Markets on the Upswing

Top 10 Most Promising Housing Markets across the U.S. according to Housing Predictor, which provides housing forecasts in 250 markets, has identified 10 markets where the regional economies are healthy and have strong potential for increasing prosperity.

These housing markets have bucked the national trend in 2008 and avoided the subprime crisis, the consultancy says. Whatever the future holds for the housing market as a whole, Housing Predictor forecasts that these cities will continue to see steady, dependable growth.

Top cities and the percentage sales prices have increased so far in 2008.

• Biloxi, Mississippi, 4.9 percent
• Salem, Oregon, 4.7 percent
• Bismarck, North Dakota, 4.6 percent
• Spokane, Washington., 4.4 percent
• Yakima, Washington, 4.1 percent
• Austin, Texas, 4.0 percent
• Grand Junction, Colorado, 4.0 percent
• Fargo, North Dakota, 4.0 percent
• Mobile, Alabama, 3.9 percent  
• Albuquerque, New Mexico, 3.5 percent

 
Part Five – Even the rich folks are having problems!

The Priciest Real Estate Markets across the U.S. where more than 43 percent of sellers of luxury homes have had to reduce their prices, according to one study of high-end home sales. The Institute for Luxury Home Marketing’s newly launched Luxury Housing Report says that homes in ZIP codes at the top end of the housing market are selling more slowly, up from 110 days on the market in May to 130 days in September.

Median prices have remained stable at a $1.154 million, or $336 a square foot, about the same as September.

Here’s the situation in the top 10 priciest markets and the average days on the market:
 
1.     Atlanta: Median price, $788,062. Average days on market: 123
2.     Boston: $1.45 million, 125
3.     Chicago: $1.48 million, 153
4.     Dallas: $844,036, 120
5.     Honolulu: $1.15 million, 110
6.     Las Vegas: $482,197. Inventory, 137
7.     Miami: $1.96 million, 220
8.     New York: $3.6 million, 186
9.     San Diego: $2.1 million, 83
10.   Seattle: $1.1 million, 113
 
The info is presented to show that all real estate is local and that trends in our own area are the ones that we should follow. 

Sometimes the media only tells a generalized and sensationalized story.  That’s what keeps people tuned in after all!

So it seems that foreclosures are selling first and fastest.  Would only make sense because those prices are lowest and offer the most value.  Foreclosures in some areas are still receiving multiple offers.

Not everyone in every area is in a declining market.

 
 

Lyn Sims (847)230-7324 at RE/MAX Suburban

I proudly serve and sell real estate in the Northwest Suburbs of Chicago.  If you are thinking about purchasing or selling your home in the communities of Schaumburg, Hoffman Estates, Elk Grove Village, Roselle, Palatine, Medinah, Itasca, Bloomingdale, Carol Stream, Bartlett, Hanover Park, Streamwood, Elgin, South Elgin, St. Charles and more importantly, want to work with a local area expert, contact me immediately.