When I was asked to write this article I did not know who would be occupying the White House for the next four years.

In June of 1949 the DOW Jones stood at about 167 points and was rising; in January of 1960 it was 640, on October 2, 1972 it hit a record high of 1,020 points. For the most part, from 1960 to 1982, the DOW Jones was going through typical up and down cycles. Periods of recessions were followed by periods of expansions. Since 1960 there were 4 recessions 1960, 69, 73, 81. For two decades the DOW Jones hung around 800 points, up until the computer revolution of the 1980's. From 1982 we have witness relentless rises, and a record high of 14,093 in 2007.

During Kennedy's election campaign, he charged that under Eisenhower and the Republican Party , the United States was falling behind and he, as President, would "get America moving again".

In his acceptance speech Kennedy stated: "We stand today on the verge of a new frontier- the frontier of the 1960's, a frontier of unknown opportunities and perils- a frontier of unfulfilled hopes and threats".

I have read headlines from the 1960 presidential election and they are strikingly similar with what we observed during the 2008 presidential campaign. I believe that we are experiencing a "déjà vu", this is familiar rhetoric.

For the Real Estate Industry it will make a little difference who will occupy the White House for the next 4 years. One thing is clear; taxes will most likely go up. Our last economic expansion which started in 2001 was fueled by cheap credits. We have borrowed heavily. As of February 2008, the national debt equated to $33,000 per capita or $60,100 per head of the U.S. working population.

According to a J.P. Morgan Chase forecast, we will see 3 quarters of recession followed by 12 quarters of slow growth. BLS reports "the median annual earnings, including commissions, of salaried real estate sales agents were $39,760 in May 2006. The middle 50 percent earned between $26,790 and $65,270 a year. The lowest 10 percent earned less than $20,170, and the highest 10 percent earned more than $111,500.

Median annual earnings, including commissions, of salaried real estate brokers were $60,790 in May 2006. The middle 50 percent earned between $37,800 and $102,180 a year. Many real estate brokers and sales agents worked part time, combining their real estate activities with other careers. About 61 percent of real estate brokers and sales agents were self-employed. Real estate is sold in all areas, but employment is concentrated in large urban areas and in rapidly growing communities. Employment of real estate brokers and sales agents is expected to grow 11 percent during the 2006-16 projection decades".

 

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5 Comments on Where Do We Stand Now? A new president, a new economic plan—what it means for real estate

NOV
26
2008
255,212 Points 1 Featured Post Localism Sponsor Outside Blog Hit Router

Who knows where we will stand. I just hope that we all have a place to stand at the end of the day and an economy that eventually turns around.

8:31pm • #1
277,945 Points 4 Featured Posts Outside Blog Hit Router

I love my job and see this as good news. I plan to stay in the top 10%-Dinah Lee

8:36pm • #2
304,867 Points 27 Featured Posts Outside Blog Hit Router

Hey, folks -

I'm a little comforted that the president elect is not relying on the status quo, and will take a leadership role in putting our economy back on track.  Also encouraged he is attempting to recruit some fairly experienced professionals to help him do this - indeed, no one person can do it all.

How will it play out?  We'll have to see!

Happy Thanksgiving!

DEAN & DEAN'S TEAM CHICAGO

8:56pm • #3
277,840 Points 15 Featured Posts Outside Blog

I just hope we are not setting ourselves up for inflation in 2 years. As a country we need to slow down and enjoy what we have. It should not be fast cars and bigger homes. New York Bankers have given us a world of hurt with their desire for riches and they were cheered all the way.

I see a slow creep up and maybe people will begin to save for themselves. An economy built on comsumer spending is a bubble itself and can go on forever.

Watch how soon we forget high gas prices?  

8:57pm • #4
331,109 Points Outside Blog

I am hoping for the best, I think things will get better soon starting next year.

9:45pm • #5

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