When I was asked to write this article I did not know who would be occupying the White House for the next four years.
In June of 1949 the DOW Jones stood at about 167 points and was rising; in January of 1960 it was 640, on October 2, 1972 it hit a record high of 1,020 points. For the most part, from 1960 to 1982, the DOW Jones was going through typical up and down cycles. Periods of recessions were followed by periods of expansions. Since 1960 there were 4 recessions 1960, 69, 73, 81. For two decades the DOW Jones hung around 800 points, up until the computer revolution of the 1980's. From 1982 we have witness relentless rises, and a record high of 14,093 in 2007.
During Kennedy's election campaign, he charged that under Eisenhower and the Republican Party , the United States was falling behind and he, as President, would "get America moving again".
In his acceptance speech Kennedy stated: "We stand today on the verge of a new frontier- the frontier of the 1960's, a frontier of unknown opportunities and perils- a frontier of unfulfilled hopes and threats".
I have read headlines from the 1960 presidential election and they are strikingly similar with what we observed during the 2008 presidential campaign. I believe that we are experiencing a "déjà vu", this is familiar rhetoric.
For the Real Estate Industry it will make a little difference who will occupy the White House for the next 4 years. One thing is clear; taxes will most likely go up. Our last economic expansion which started in 2001 was fueled by cheap credits. We have borrowed heavily. As of February 2008, the national debt equated to $33,000 per capita or $60,100 per head of the U.S. working population.
According to a J.P. Morgan Chase forecast, we will see 3 quarters of recession followed by 12 quarters of slow growth. BLS reports "the median annual earnings, including commissions, of salaried real estate sales agents were $39,760 in May 2006. The middle 50 percent earned between $26,790 and $65,270 a year. The lowest 10 percent earned less than $20,170, and the highest 10 percent earned more than $111,500.
Median annual earnings, including commissions, of salaried real estate brokers were $60,790 in May 2006. The middle 50 percent earned between $37,800 and $102,180 a year. Many real estate brokers and sales agents worked part time, combining their real estate activities with other careers. About 61 percent of real estate brokers and sales agents were self-employed. Real estate is sold in all areas, but employment is concentrated in large urban areas and in rapidly growing communities. Employment of real estate brokers and sales agents is expected to grow 11 percent during the 2006-16 projection decades".
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Who knows where we will stand. I just hope that we all have a place to stand at the end of the day and an economy that eventually turns around.