Regina,

Thank you for your comment.

Maybe, I didn't make it clear in the topic that I am only talking about a prime area in Los Angeles County.   My topic is mainly pointing out a fact that "prime" loan default is right on the track to come, no matter where the area is good or bad.  It has nothing to do with the "bottom" of California real estate market.   I am not going to predict the bottom since so many factors involved even, I believe, yours is optimistic.  If you say it is 2010, I will say it is based on at least some assumptions, such as good government policy and more efficiency in our REO industry that clearly do not exist so far.

There are thousands local markets in CA.   Some are really bad with 50% or more down, some are not for now.  My client is so picky to find a house in the area in which housing price went 8-10 percent down from last year as Manhattan Beach, CA did.  

Why I did a more thorough study yesterday?  Because my client had a decision to make: to go or not to go for a recent offer.   It is a critical time.  He would like to have my newest opinion.   And I have to be very serious as a professional.

Last night, we went over all the information.  He felt so relieved to resind an offer he just made to buy a property for $250K.   It bears a listing price of $310K, I suggested him to make an offer for no more than $250K.   He hesitated to make "such a low ball" offer, since a smaller house two blocks away is still asking for $417.9K and he was intimidated.   But I insisted and he did whatever I said; his offer was accepted in 3 days by the seller waiting for bank's approval.  2 days ago, he was told by the agent that the bank gave approval orally and the written acceptance would be in a few days.   Legally, the offer is void and null since my client has no obligation to honor the offer in which the contingency he has the right to receive the bank's written approval is 8 days past due.   But he is still in a position to accept or reject it at his discretion.   

He said he was so happy to update new development.  He numbered it to say there are 16 NOT filings in his one-mile radius target blocks (remember, there is almost none a year ago).   He told me that he can wait for a better price and more choice to come in 8 months or less.

C.A.R. REPORTS SALES UP 117.1 PERCENT; MEDIAN PRICE FELL 39.9 PERCENT

Home sales increased 117.1 percent in October in California compared with the same period a year ago, while the median price of an existing home fell 39.9 percent, C.A.R. reported yesterday.

"Statewide sales increased significantly in October to 552,750 homes on an annualized basis, the highest sales level since late 2005," said C.A.R. President James Liptak. "The record gain stemmed primarily from extremely large increases in regions with a high concentration of distressed sales.

"Most October sales likely opened escrow prior to the beginning of the ongoing freeze in the financial markets.We won't have a clear picture of the full impact of the fallout until November and December sales are reported," Liptak added.

"The year-to-year decline in the statewide median home price was smaller in October than the previous month for the first time in 11 months," said C.A.R Vice President and Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young. "However, there is still no conclusive indication that prices have begun to stabilize."

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A perfect example for the saying: "figures don't lie; people fig."

How can the sales up 117% and the price down 40% at the same period?  It depends on at least one very different approach: how you collect the data.   You can factor a distressed sale, such as NOT at the court steps, into a "sale" and treat it as normal.  Then, you have the sales volume increased or doubled.  

With different planet, who can argue with that?  Very clearly, it is against the first principle of economics, isn't it?  

Well, that's perfect ethical "honesty" of politicians explained.  Yes, we can't treat their speech as a lie as someone said "an oral sex is not a sex."  they are always perfectly honest, even they knowingly choose to use the tactics called "septic focus" to "deceive."  So many cheerleaders orchestrated a show to their interest nowadays.

It is really up to you to be smart with your own discipline or to be dumb with a herd mentality, isn't it?   I have no say about your action, but, sorry to say, it is  "your money" as Mr. Anderson, Channel 9 of Los Angeles, uses to end his program. 

Are We idiots? Yes, to Those Politicians

American, A Promise Land!