No matter what your role in the real estate industry, understanding trends in home values is absolutely critical. With a shortage of active credit facilities and historic-low appetite for mortgage-backed securities, one must be able to decipher and interpret the data that drives lenders acceptance of residential real estate as collateral.
Although the Case-Schiller Home Price Index, National Association of Realtors® Existing-Home Sales and the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index get the majority of the media attention, they all have limitations on the accuracy of their reports due to the process of measuring their data sets.
It was recently brought to my attention that lenders look at a different index to gauge mortgage risk relative to loan performance and collateral assessment. It is called the LoanPerformance National Home Price Index and is a product facilitated by First American CoreLogic, Inc. which is "the nation's largest provider of real estate, mortgage, collateral management, and fraud detection information and analytical products."
Because I do not have subscription access to the raw data, I am only able to pass on the trends per state level. Needles to say, home value trends can be focused to a single zip code. Here is the most recent data available for the chart referenced above from the lowest appreaciating market to the highest appreciating market.
- California -29.85%
- Nevada -24.99%
- Arizona -21.09%
- Florida -17.54%
- Rhode Island -14.96%
- Hawaii -14.30%
- United States -11.24%
- Minnesota -9.71%
- Wyoming -8.92%
- Washington -8.80%
- Michigan -8.01%
- New Hampshire -7.52%
- Maryland -7.39%
- Illinois -6.93%
- Oregon -6.44%
- New Jersey -6.21%
- District of Columbia -6.12%
- Virginia -6.08%
- Connecticut -5.92%
- Massachusetts -5.85%
- Ohio -5.38%
- New York -5.24%
- Alabama -4.88%
- Georgia -4.87%
- Wisconsin -3.75%
- Pennsylvania -3.65%
- Colorado -3.39%
- Tennessee -2.75%
- Louisiana -1.45%
- Nebraska -1.44%
- South Carolina -1.23%
- Delaware -1.20%
- Alaska -0.90%
- Kentucky -0.87%
- North Carolina -0.73%
- Idaho -0.35%
- Utah 0.00%
- North Dakota +0.43%
- Oklahoma +0.61%
- Arkansas +0.62%
- New Mexico +0.72%
- Vermont +0.76%
- Maine +0.79%
- Iowa +0.92%
- Missouri +1.12%
- Kansas +1.38%
- Montana +1.48%
- Indiana +1.98%
- Mississippi +2.14%
- South Dakota +2.17%
- Texas +2.61%
- West Virginia +4.60%
ALL real estate professionals know that home values are local phenomenons. No one can dispute that within any given locale there will be declining markets, stagnant markets and appreciating markets.
Understanding real home value trends per the lenders perspective can only provide timely guidance not only to you, but also consumers.
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