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Could Mortgage Interest Rates Drop to 4.5% with Treasury Intervention?

By
Mortgage and Lending with Guild Mortgage Co - Oak Harbor WA

The latest rumor (anonymous comment) coming from our "tight lipped" bureaucrats in Washington is that Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson is considering a new plan to reduce mortgage rates in another bid to revive the U.S. housing market. The Treasury could, under this new plan, step up purchases of mortgage backed securities (MBS) to drive down interest rates on some loans to 4.5 percent, the official said on condition of anonymity. The possibility that this plan could change is enormous.Did You Hear That?

Mortgage applications surged by a record last week and the average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate loan dropped to 5.47 percent, the lowest level since June 2005, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. So, what will this latest "news" do to the clients that have started application and (probably) locked their interest rate when they hear rates could drop another full percent?

Lowering mortgage rates to 4.5 percent might allow a lot of homeowners to refinance into a cheaper loan but some financial experts expect far fewer people will actually qualify for the lower rates. There are already a number of additions to rates due to credit score, loan to value and purpose of loan. With substantially lower rates, lender will probably tighten these requirements, even more.

I am not certain of what this announcement means to future business opportunities. One "expert" stated that he thought the lowering of the fixed rates to 4.5% could mean that 90% of the mortgages in existence could benefit from refinancing to the new, lower rate. If true, business could get quite brisk.

What are your feelings about having interest rates drop like this? Is it sustainable?

authored by Fred Chamberlin, senior mortgage consultant, Eugene/Springfield Oregon, 541-342-7576

 Feb. 16, 2009: Just an update. I am getting some recent comments as to if this is possible or not. If you read my comments below, you will find that it has already happened once and may again. Also, I have deleted some long winded comments that I didn't believe gave any good information to the post. Thanks for reading and come back again to see what people are still saying.

 

Comments(69)

Jim Crawford
Long & Foster - Fredericksburg, VA
Jim Crawford Broker Associate Fredericksburg VA

It will be interesting if the job losses could offset this.  I think if the job losses were not so exaggerated, this could fix the economy.  My fear it is a little too late.

Dec 05, 2008 07:29 AM
Fred Chamberlin
Guild Mortgage Co - Oak Harbor WA - Oak Harbor, WA
Oak Harbor/Whidbeynulls, #1 Experienced FHA Mortgage Consultant

Carol - I love that attitude. What could be bad about paying less for a home loan? I also agree that people should actually be able to make their payments to get a loan.

Dona - This is one of those vicious cycles. Selling more houses will get more people back to work. Getting more money into the economy will get more people back to work. We just lost some more jobs in Eugene/Springfield and it hurts every time.

Jim - Government is always re-active, never pro-active. We have an interesting time still ahead.

Dec 05, 2008 08:38 AM
Fred Chamberlin
Guild Mortgage Co - Oak Harbor WA - Oak Harbor, WA
Oak Harbor/Whidbeynulls, #1 Experienced FHA Mortgage Consultant

Jeff - Is there something about satire you don't understand? I was making a joke big guy! No matter what the rate, there will be people that want it lower before they commit. Personally, I will take every bit of help I can get in this market.

As for the H4H, who (between you and me) was right? They have already made changes and it still isn't working. But that is another blog argument, isn't it? Chill guy, chill!

Dec 05, 2008 12:30 PM
Thesa Chambers
West + Main - Bend, OR
Principal Broker - Licensed in Oregon

Fred - I think Jeff is feeling a little challenged - and trust me Jeff and I did not start out on the right foot - we are now friends - Jeff - stop it - this is Fred's post - and you seem to be over riding it - behave you know better - love ya both

Dec 05, 2008 02:49 PM
Fred Chamberlin
Guild Mortgage Co - Oak Harbor WA - Oak Harbor, WA
Oak Harbor/Whidbeynulls, #1 Experienced FHA Mortgage Consultant

Golly, Thesa, I am not after his business, just his fame. LOL. Love you too. And really love your post.

Dec 05, 2008 04:11 PM
Michelle Chamberlain
Above All Financial Services -Pennsylvania Mortgage Broker - Secane, PA
Suburban Philadelphia Mortgage Broker

I don't get why some people are so against the 4.5% interest rate drop because they view it as a short term solution that will have negative affects down the line yet at the same time they are in favor of programs like DPA or loans for people with a 550 credit score.  

 

Dec 06, 2008 09:37 AM
Fred Chamberlin
Guild Mortgage Co - Oak Harbor WA - Oak Harbor, WA
Oak Harbor/Whidbeynulls, #1 Experienced FHA Mortgage Consultant

Jeff - I have to say that rates at 4.5% would be awesome. Rates at 3% would be incredible. I am just a low rate whore, what can I say?

Michelle - I do like low rates and am not afraid to say so. Give me low rates! DPAs are very useful products but should be given to people that can show they are responsible. Often times, this is best shown through credit score, not always, but often.

Dec 06, 2008 10:31 AM
Beth Forbes
The mortgage help you want when you need it. - Center Valley, PA
Your 24/7 loan officer

As always, late to all the good parties but couldn't resist throwing in my two cents. I don't think that 4.5% will jump start the purchase market when the difference in payment on a $100,000 loan on a 30 year term at 5.5% is only about $61.10 more expensive than if the rate were 4.5%. If would certainly jump start a refinance boom but I don't think that is what is being proposed. I, personally, would make a ton of money if it applied to refinances but don't see how that would help the broader economy.

In my most humble opinion, I think if the Fed wants to get involved in the real estate market, the money would be better spent lending it to seasoned property investors who are about the only ones who understand taking advantage of the lower real estate prices. That woudl cure the inventory propbelm MUCH quicker than lowering the rates for primary residences.

Dec 08, 2008 01:54 AM
Fred Chamberlin
Guild Mortgage Co - Oak Harbor WA - Oak Harbor, WA
Oak Harbor/Whidbeynulls, #1 Experienced FHA Mortgage Consultant

Heck Beth, if you had come sooner, you might have missed some of the comments. I don't know if the 4.5% rate will jumpstart the market or now, but I do know that it could generate the kind of interest I would like to see. As far as seasoned investors, I am afraid that some of them helped in the collapse as they walked away from their very little down investment properties. Investment financing has become substantially harder to do with higher down payments, more restrictive cash flow requirements and substantially higher rates. Could be interesting to see what happens in this arena. And, as for a $100k loan, even with this market, that is about half to a third of the minimum sales price.

Take a look at Michelle Chamberlain (not related) for some great comparisons to what this reduction can mean over time. I think she hit is on the head.

Dec 08, 2008 03:35 AM
Doris Freeman
Zach Taylor Real Estate - Gallatin, TN
Broker/Agent, 615-961-7799

In Nashville area they are at 4.75 Conv so 4.5 isn't far, buyers need to be buying now, home prices are down, and interest rates, what a perfect situation.

Dec 16, 2008 02:24 PM
Fred Chamberlin
Guild Mortgage Co - Oak Harbor WA - Oak Harbor, WA
Oak Harbor/Whidbeynulls, #1 Experienced FHA Mortgage Consultant

Doris - I can't quote an interest rate without a bunch of disclosures, but you are right. Thanks for passing this information on.

Dec 16, 2008 02:33 PM
Steve Laird
Anderson Real Estate Sales - Chico, CA
Steve Sells Chico Real Estate

We need some positive input in the media!  All I have read and heard lately is doom and gloom - 4.5% would be good for the media, although I've heard it is only on new homes.

Dec 17, 2008 07:14 AM
Fred Chamberlin
Guild Mortgage Co - Oak Harbor WA - Oak Harbor, WA
Oak Harbor/Whidbeynulls, #1 Experienced FHA Mortgage Consultant

Well, you may have heard it is only for purchases, but I had 4.5% 30 year fixed interest rate available this morning for well qualified borrowers of 4.5%/4.662%APR* for either a purchase or a no cash out refinance. Not quite as good this afternoon but close. What will tomorrow bring?

Conventionals loan are $200,000 purchase or no cash out refinance (non manufactured home) with 20% down. Loan amount is $160,000. Credit score of 740 or higher.

*Rates and terms subject to change without notice. Maximum loan amounts vary by state, county, and property type . Subject to review of credit and/or collateral; not all applicants will qualify for financing. It is important to make an informed decision when selecting and using a loan product; make sure to compare loan types when making a financing decision. OR License #ML-4832

 I told you I had to do a lot of disclosure stuff to quote a rate.

Dec 17, 2008 07:46 AM
Scott Baker
www.eHomeReports.com Coldwell Banker Realty - Liberty Township, OH
Realtor Homes for Sale Cincinnati/Dayton Ohio

I have clients that we just finished negotiating contract on a home for them today, their interest rate they locked in Tuesday,  4 7/8's, VA loan. I think gov't needs to stay out of the market. I heard on the radio today that re-fi's are up over 100% vs, last December. Let the market do it's thing. Right now I am helping buyers negotiate some FANTASTIC deals. With every loser there is a winner and right now my buyers are buying homes at unheard of prices with CHEAP money.

Dec 24, 2008 09:20 AM
Fred Chamberlin
Guild Mortgage Co - Oak Harbor WA - Oak Harbor, WA
Oak Harbor/Whidbeynulls, #1 Experienced FHA Mortgage Consultant

Market forces are what is needed today Scott. Thanks for bringing that up.

Dec 25, 2008 09:49 AM
Leslie Stewart
Oregon Licensed Broker with Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices Real Estate Professionals - Stayton, OR
Realtor, ABR, CRS, Oregon Licensed Broker

I haven't had a qualified buyer come in for a while now.  Only cash purchases.  I am afraid that even with amazing low rates, buyers won't qualify because of job cut backs, especially here in Oregon...

Jan 30, 2009 03:34 PM
Lisa Long
Heather Roda Broker - Paso Robles, CA

Could it be that they (the government, lenders) are going to be putting people back into houses they really cant afford. Low down payment, lower payment due to interest rate great. But...Bigger house equals bigger up keep and bigger value so the property taxes will be higher as well as utilities. I'm all for a lower interest rate I just hope the home buyers use a little self-control this time around.

Feb 13, 2009 04:55 AM
Christianne O'Malley
Dickson Realty - Reno, NV
Exceptional Service - Delivering Results in Reno!

I'm hoping it's true. It will let people refinance who are in their homes now and hopefully get some buyers off the fence!

Feb 15, 2009 12:13 PM
Fred Chamberlin
Guild Mortgage Co - Oak Harbor WA - Oak Harbor, WA
Oak Harbor/Whidbeynulls, #1 Experienced FHA Mortgage Consultant

Lisa - I don't believe that putting people into homes they can't afford is what this is all about. It is to make homes more affordable and get people that can afford a home to buy one and to help people that are having difficulty with their current payment get a lower one. That, to me, is a win-win situation.

Christianne - It is true. Been there once, may get there again.

Feb 16, 2009 07:24 AM
Paul Gapski
Berkshire Hathaway / Prudential Ca Realty - El Cajon, CA
619-504-8999,#1 Resource SD Relo

Thank you for sharing your blog; we need Real estate Professionals to share their comments and information regarding their markets and experiences. Thanks again from beautiful Sunny San Diego!

Now in 2012 its down to 3.75% even lower than ur prediction

Jun 23, 2012 12:52 AM