Last Monday (12-1-2008) the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) after their Business Cycle Dating Committee meeting November 28th announced that the country is "officially" in recession...as of December 2007. As defined by the NBER:
"A recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in production, employment, real income and other indicators. A recession begins when the economy reaches a peak of activity and ends when the economy reaches its trough."
The committee said that they would have made the declaration earlier but the economy experienced some gains in first and second quarter 2008. What do you know; this pesky economy just won't go quietly!
But we didn't need to hear it from the experts, did we. As a Realtor I've known for quite some time, well at least before December, 2007 that something was wrong. The buying and selling public was frustrated. Sellers for not being able to get out whole and buyers continuing to wait until the prices bottomed out. Lay-offs, business closings, rising unemployment and escalating foreclosures. The public knew, you knew...as Seinfield would say "What's up with that?".
The NBER has been doing Business Cycle dating since 1929 when they published their first report. The reports come with a Q&A section as well. Wanna know how bad it is; one of the questions asked if the committee identified depressions as well. They don't. Before you ask they don't do projections either, or at least they don't publish them.
While the report might do well to promote academic discourse, the general public should view it like being told your car just went off a cliff as you're being pulled out of the burning wreckage.
To view this and other reports: http://www.nber.org/cycles.html
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