Wholesale inventories fell 1.1% in October - a much stronger drop that the 0.2% decline most analysts were anticipating.  Sales dropped during the month by 4.1% -- the most since records began in 1992 -- causing businesses to scale back on the level of product on hand.  This report is just one more piece of a mountain of data that indicates the economy is in the grip of one of the most severe recessions in decades.

Speaking of recessions - I think it is worth noting there have been six major recessions since the Great Depression; three of them lasted a year and three of the lasted two years, start to finish.  Recent macro-economic data indicates the current recession will likely last a couple of years.  This recession officially began in December 2007, according to the government data wonks assigned to determine such things.  If that projection is anywhere close to accurate, and assuming history will repeat itself, December 2008 should roughly approximate the darkest point of this recession.  Considering the massive amount of stimulus that will be pouring into our economy shortly after January 20^th (Inauguration Day) - not to mention the trillions of dollars the major industrialized nations will collectively be pouring into the global market place -- it is almost a "given" that our domestic economic picture will have brightened considerably by this time next year. 

 

Today's conforming 30 year fixed rate is at 5.125%.