Top 100 markets! Has yours hit bottom?

The December 22, 2008 issue of Fortune magazine page 68 & 69: The 2009 Housing Outlook - by Scott Cendrowski

Yesterday I picked up this article and skimmed it as I was heading out to a Christmas party. This morning I had a chance to read it more thoroughly.  The sources quoted for the stats in the article are National Association of REALTORS and Moody's Economy.com.  The bottom line is the market hasn't turned around YET - but we all knew that. The good news is there is signs of the end being in sight.

My market is the Crystal Coast of NC so of-course my eyes zoomed into that section of the map. Well Raleigh, Charlotte and Greensboro - High Point are the 3 NC markets noted in the survey so I will have to use those as my guiding factor. With many of our buyers and sellers coming from other area of the state this should give insight to our market as well.

"It's the billion-dollar question: When will prices rebound? With the economy weakening, probably not next year, when only two out of the top 100 markets in the country are expected to show gains. The bright side: In 2010, 47 markets will swing from negative to positive territory. -- Scott Cendrowski

Well Scott that is accurate in saying only 2 markets, McAllen-Mission, TX and New Orleans, show predicted gains in 2009 and when I looked at the chart and map I saw several other positives.

Four more markets with less than a -1%  slide projected: Fort Worth-Arlington,  Birmingham, El Paso and Pittsburgh.

There are 10 markets with slide of between -1% and -1.9% slide: Indianapolis, Wichita, Youngstown, OH, Dallas-Irving, Columbia, SC, Little Rock, Oklahoma City, Austin, Rochester, NY, Buffalo-Niagra Falls

Eleven more markets will have between a -2% and -2.9% slide: Omaha, Gary, IN, Dayton, Grand Rapids, Tulsa, Houston, Greenville SC, San Antonio, Greensboro-High Point NC, Albany NY and Syracuse NY

That makes 25% of the market seeing bottom and beginning the turn toward recovery and 2% in recovery. With 47 markets seeing positive gains in price in 2010. I feel like we may be close to the tipping point.

The article broke up the market into sections: 2009 range of price changes
     The West -9.2% (Albuquerque) to -24.9% (Los Angeles)
     The Midwest -1.3% (Indianapolis) to -11.7% (Farmington Hills-Troy, MI)
     The South +2.8% (McAllen-Mission, TX) to -22.8% (Miami-Miami Beach)
     The Northeast -0.9% (Pittsburgh) to -15.8% (Stamford, CN)

California has the most -20+% markets for 2009 but look at 2010 they all drop below -5% with the exception of Los Angeles which comes in at -5.1%. Hopefully this means something has to be selling to get that change year over year.

Not one of the top 100 markets will see double digit negative percentage price changes in 2010. Of the 50 markets still seeing negative price changes in 2010 - 18 of those markets will see less than -2.0%.

Of the 50 markets in 2010 that see positive price changes (including one neutral market Nashville), the South region will see the most positive markets coming in at 21, followed by the midwest with 16, the northeast at 10 and the west with 3.

CHART by RANK

CHART by REGION

or should I say ... a new beginning