| The Top 100 Markets - has yours hit bottom?
The December 22, 2008 issue of Fortune magazine page 68 & 69:
The 2009 Housing Outlook - by Scott Cendrowski
Yesterday I picked up this article and skimmed it as I was
heading out to a Christmas party. This morning I had a chance to
read it more thoroughly. The sources quoted for the stats in
the article are National Association of REALTORS and Moody's
Economy.com. The bottom line is the market hasn't turned
around YET - but we all knew that. The good news is there is signs
of the end being in sight.
My market is the Crystal Coast of NC so of-course my eyes zoomed
into that section of the map. Well Raleigh, Charlotte and Greensboro
- High Point are the 3 NC markets noted in the survey so I will have
to use those as my guiding factor. With many of our buyers and
sellers coming from other area of the state this should give insight
to our market as well.
|
Rank |
City |
2008 Median Price |
2009 |
2010 |
| 26 |
Greensboro-High Point |
$149,240 |
-2.7% |
0.1% |
| 42 |
Charlotte |
$199,030 |
-5.9% |
-1.6% |
| 45 |
Raleigh |
$217,510 |
-6.2% |
-0.5% |
"It's the billion-dollar question: When will prices rebound?
With the economy weakening, probably not next year, when only two
out of the top 100 markets in the country are expected to show
gains. The bright side: In 2010, 47 markets will swing from negative
to positive territory. -- Scott Cendrowski
Well Scott that is accurate in saying only 2 markets,
McAllen-Mission, TX and New Orleans, show predicted gains in 2009
and when I looked at the chart and map I saw several other
positives.
Four more markets with less than a -1% slide projected:
Fort Worth-Arlington, Birmingham, El Paso and Pittsburgh.
There are 10 markets with slide of between -1% and -1.9% slide:
Indianapolis, Wichita, Youngstown, OH, Dallas-Irving, Columbia, SC,
Little Rock, Oklahoma City, Austin, Rochester, NY, Buffalo-Niagra
Falls
Eleven more markets will have between a -2% and -2.9% slide:
Omaha, Gary, IN, Dayton, Grand Rapids, Tulsa, Houston, Greenville
SC, San Antonio, Greensboro-High Point NC, Albany NY and Syracuse NY
That makes 25% of the market seeing bottom and beginning the turn
toward recovery and 2% in recovery. With 47 markets seeing positive
gains in price in 2010. I feel like we may be close to the tipping
point.
The article broke up the market into sections: 2009 range of
price changes
The West -9.2% (Albuquerque) to -24.9% (Los Angeles)
The Midwest -1.3% (Indianapolis) to -11.7% (Farmington
Hills-Troy, MI)
The South +2.8% (McAllen-Mission, TX) to -22.8%
(Miami-Miami Beach)
The Northeast -0.9% (Pittsburgh) to -15.8% (Stamford,
CN)
California has the most -20+% markets for 2009 but look at 2010
they all drop below -5% with the exception of Los Angeles which
comes in at -5.1%. Hopefully this means something has to be selling to get that change year over year.
Not one of the top 100 markets will see double digit
negative percentage price changes in 2010. Of the 50 markets
still seeing negative price changes in 2010 - 18 of those markets
will see less than -2.0%.
Of the 50 markets in 2010 that see positive price changes
(including one neutral market Nashville), the South region will see
the most positive markets coming in at 21, followed by the midwest
with 16, the northeast at 10 and the west with 3.
|
;)
;)
Interesting... although they look at these markets as a whole. Inside each market are mini-markets. DC for example: in NW Washington DC; prices are not heading down. However head into the burbs and yes - there are price drops.
None-the-less; this will eventually turn around. Let's hope sooner than later!