It seems like the general topic of discussion at the Holiday parties of late is the preverbal "are we at the bottom" conversation. I for one am excited that the topic is finally becoming part of general conversation. I told my agents about 8 months ago that things would start to get better when we start to see the media begin to print positive articles - like this one from the NY times - and when the general topic of discussion moves from how "bad" everything is to "are we at the bottom?".
The Boise, Idaho Real Estate Market hasn't been near as bad as what has been going on in other areas - but it also isn't exactly stellar. It's probably just back to normal at this point and it is taking all of us in the industry a bit of time to get used to it. But, positive signs are all around us. Recently, the Wall Street Journal printed a large article on Real Estate (sorry I can't link to it, but I have a scan I would be happy to email to anyone interested) where the Journal specifically pointed to Boise, Idaho and Albuquerque New Mexico as the 2 places where appreciation will outpace the rest of the nation over the next 10 years! To me, that was the true ringing of the Bell that says we are at a bottom and it is time to get in.
It is common knowledge that it is near impossible to time a bottom - by the time you know it, it already has passed. So, I can't say now is the bottom but I can say I see these 10 reasons that the Boise, Idaho Real Estate Market is at or near a bottom:
1) Prices are truly great right now. Being December as our worst Real Estate Month (weather and holidays collide to make selling tough), and coming off 2 years of a tough market - we are at the point where prices have come down about 19% overall
2) The Feds will be introducing a massive Housing Stimulus in the next few months - Stimulus = price increases at some point
3) Money is cheap - it's almost a no-brainer to borrow money right now because the return on that money should outpace the interest carry
4) New construction prices are unsustainable - what the market is paying right now is less than what it costs to build - the builders have completely stopped production so no more supply - as supply dwindles - demand will go up - thereby prices go up
5) There is still a large in-migration of people to the Treasure Valley and Idaho as a whole - as more people come, and less product is built to meet the needs - then supply vs. demand kicks in once again
6) I have no ability to prove it, but in talking to some of our government and economic focus folks - some large and medium scale employers ARE relocating operations to Boise, ID - They won't tell us who because it needs to stay cloak and dagger until the company itself announces so their competitors don't know what they are up to. - The question still remains as to when this will happen - but I am hoping it is soon!
7) Boise State University has put us on the map - GO BRONCOS!!! Check out the SMURF TURF here.
8) The creation of our new community college system all but guarantees large scale employers will be looking at our Valley with renewed interest - strong education systems = educated workers for the high-tech industry
9) The Internet has made high-level consulting companies free to relocate to where quality of life is the best - and Boise, Idaho has the quality of life that so many are looking for - no longer do you need to live in the "Big City" - I think this technological revolution that we are all living in right now is probably the single most humankind changing event - and we get to be part of it!
10) Transaction volume is way up in feeder states like California - As folks can get out of larger markets - they will flock to markets like Boise, Idaho - where quality of life is good, unemployment is low, crime is almost non-existent, and guess what - you actually know your neighbors here!
So, that's my view on the current state of opportunity in our market. What do you think? Tell me about your market and what you see happening.
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