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Wanted - Housing RE.covery

Need Input - 2009 Housing Recovery #TCOT

As is currently posted on Top Conservatives on Twitter I am researching for a book based on a Conservatives' views on a Housing Recovery next year. Since I'm a blogger and social media activist, it would only seem right that I ask my readers for input and ideas.

This is an open thread, which I'll also post on my personal blog, for ideas and debate. We may disagree, that's ok, at least we're willing to think and try some things. I am predicting that there won't be an Economic Recovery in 2009 unless housing recovers. The question is, how?

Fire Away!

As always, for those that prefer Twitter my profile: Daltonsbriefs

Posted by Steve Dalton - Northwest Indiana on 12/18/2008 06:26 AM

Comments (5)

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5 Comments on Wanted - Housing RE.covery

DEC

Steve, good question. The how will be primarily because of 2 forces: (1) mortgage rates at historical lows and (2) continued price declines ... In addition, confidence will pick back up with Obama as well as economy firming up due to all the stimulus in place which will allow the banks greater opportunity to lend. I think middle of 2009 will be the bottom of the housing market so 2009 thus can be the turnaround year.

You're way too negative for me on the market, and way too positive on Obama. Oh well

I think the bottom was September of this year, and that the bottom of the stock market was at the end of November. Sure there will be more layoffs and restructuring, but I think housing has begun the recovery that will be slow at first and gain steam in 2009.

I say this with quite some caution, because I think politicians, including your beloved Obama, will try to mess it all up with "ORDERS" from on high. They need to stay out of the way and let the market do what it does best.

Steve - I am hoping for a true recovery rather than a dead cat bounce. I think there are some policies coming that might actually drive the recession deeper and longer than it's natural course will take it. I am not sure that the bottom of the real estate market was in September but we may be close. A lot really depends upon the impact of foreclosures due to job loss and how long/deep the unemployment cycle will become.

DEC

Steve: I feel we are at the bottom now, here in Massachusetts. The big variable this year will be the financial sector bonuses. If they materialize, the RE market will be OK. If the bonuses go away or are scaled way, way back, the recession here (which just started 2 months ago) will deepen.

I will cheer in for the new Administration. I believe, while the raod ahead will be slow at first, Obama is laying the groundwork for a broad and steady recovery.

Steve,

With the amount of shortsales and foreclosures on the market I think we have a ways to go yet. At the rate of sales in 2008 compared the the amount of homes for sale in my market I think the statistic is that it would take over two years to sell all the listed homes even if not another one came on the market. I think it really all comes down to consumer confidence. And quite honestly consumers don,t know who to trust. How many agents a year or year and a half ago were telling their clients that it was a good time to buy then. Those agents no longer have credibility. I tell clients unless they are willing to make at least a five year commitment to their new home they should reconsidewr.

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