This report is brought to you by Team Terova and Real Estate One
What has been the effect of the auto bailout on our market? So far not that dramatic. November and the first portion of December continue to follow the prior months patterns of units sales up and median sale price down. As we have said before, those with auto related jobs have not been buyers of real estate for 12-18 months or longer, so our market already reflects much of the auto effect. To our benefit, it does appear that in spite of the politics, the government will figure out how to help the auto industry.
However, should one of the big three file for bankruptcy our market will slow further from the effect on the tangent/support businesses. How much of an effect on home sales is tough to tell.
Determining the true home value change is tricky since both the median and the average price reflect as much the change in the type of home that is being sold (investors and first time buyers) as a decline in value. For example, the typical home in the city of Detroit is not worth just $7,500, but the typical home that is being purchased IS.
It is clear that, although inventories are declining, they have a ways to go to reach to point where home values will begin to climb. Therefore what is most relevant in setting a home price is finding the most recent strongest comparable sales, adjust for the home differences and then reduce that price. It is reasonable to estimate the price decline rate is at least 1 to 1.5% per month, so if that comparable home sold 8 months ago, your adjusted home value is 10-12% or more to get ahead of the market.
A reminder of those sellers who are looking to move-up in terms of home value and size: With rates currently hitting the 5% and less range, now is the time to act! What you might give up on your sale you will more than make up on the buy, it is a basic law of mathematics!
In our effort to maintain the leadership position in marketing our homes to more potential buyers than any other broker, we are now sending our listings to Yahoo Real Estate, one of the top real estate designations on the web with 5.1 million visitors is September alone.
Our stats for the market for November are as follows:
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Number of Homes Pending |
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Available Homes for Sale |
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Area |
Nov 07 |
Nov 08 |
% Change |
Nov 07 |
Nov 08 |
% Change |
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Oakland County |
812 |
1,080 |
33.0% |
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19,114 |
17,212 |
-10.0% |
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Macomb County |
608 |
874 |
43.8% |
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9,083 |
7,436 |
-18.1% |
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Livingston County |
119 |
134 |
12.6% |
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2,999 |
2,539 |
-15.3% |
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Washtenaw County |
218 |
181 |
-17.0% |
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3,483 |
2,790 |
-19.9% |
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Wayne ( - Detroit & G.P.) |
510 |
643 |
26.1% |
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9,033 |
8,415 |
-6.8% |
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Detroit |
738 |
1,172 |
58.8% |
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12,767 |
8,915 |
-30.2% |
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Grosse Pointe(s) |
35 |
35 |
0.0% |
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643 |
847 |
31.7% |
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Northwest Michigan* |
161 |
89 |
-44.7% |
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8,610 |
8,889 |
3.2% |
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Total |
3,201 |
4,208 |
31.5% |
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65,732 |
57,043 |
-13.2% |
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Median Sale Price |
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Ave Chance of Selling (in 30 days) |
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Area |
Nov 07 |
Nov 08 |
% Change |
Nov 07 |
Nov 08 |
% Change |
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Oakland County |
160,000 |
110,000 |
-31.3% |
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4% |
6% |
47.7% |
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Macomb County |
118,050 |
61,250 |
-48.1% |
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7% |
12% |
75.6% |
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Livingston County |
173,150 |
146,950 |
-15.1% |
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4% |
5% |
33.0% |
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Washtenaw County |
180,000 |
152,000 |
-15.6% |
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6% |
6% |
3.7% |
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Wayne ( - Detroit) |
133,000 |
79,000 |
-40.6% |
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6% |
8% |
35.3% |
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Detroit |
14,900 |
7,500 |
-49.7% |
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6% |
13% |
127.4% |
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Grosse Pointe(s) |
210,000 |
156,000 |
-25.7% |
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5% |
4% |
-24.1% |
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Northwest Michigan* |
146,950 |
112,000 |
-23.8% |
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2% |
1% |
-46.5% |
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Total |
116,018 |
69,998 |
-39.7% |
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5% |
7% |
51.5% |
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Data Source: MiRealsource, Realcomp, Ann Arbor Board & BrokerMetrics |
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Ave Chance reflects the % chance the average home will sell in the next 30 days under the current rate of sales |
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* Includes Grand Traverse, Kalkaska, Antrim, Leelanau and Benzie counties, waterfront properties and vacant land |
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