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Home owners are staying put?

By Jim Frimmer

Real Estate Agent with HomeSmart Realty West CalBRE #01458572

December 21, 2008 08:40 AM

I'm somewhat perplexed by a short story in the newspaper this morning that says Americans are moving less than before. I could understand it if it were comparing this year to, say, three or four years ago, but it's not. It reports that only 12% of Americans moved in 2007 (the most recent year for which statistics are available), which it says is half of what it was "as recently as four decades ago." I don't consider "four decades ago" to be "recently" unless you're comparing it to, say, the discovery of America by Columbus in 1492,

Four decades ago is when I was born. I don't know about you, but people who moved into my neighborhood never moved out. In fact, many of them, including my mom, are still living in those houses. The only ones who have moved out are those who have died. My friends, on the other hand, move about every two to seven years.

To the article's credit, it does say that those moving in 2007 was down one percent from 2006, but I sure never thought that people are moving less now than they were four decades ago.

I'm wondering if it was a typographical error and should have read "four years ago."

Fortunately, the number of college students graduating each year means that there is a new generation every six months that are needing to buy homes.

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Richard Iarossi

Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage - Crofton, MD

Crofton MD Real Estate, Annapolis MD Real Estate

Jim,

I seem to recall the figure that on average, Americans move every seven years. If that's true then the twelve year figure seems right.

Rich

Dec 21, 2008 08:50 AM

Kevin Comerford

Coldwell Banker Preferred - Media, PA

Very interesting, I agree with you, four decades and "as recently as" don't often belong together in a sentence when discussing real estate sale trends. As far as the trend itself, it's interesting to think of what was driving families moving trends forty years ago and the idea of the "percentage of Americans who moved". If people moved into your neighborhood, they still moved. Many boomers were starting families at a time that they made up an even bigger percentage of the total population than they do today. Considering that many young adults choose to say in the nest longer and the aging of our population which is pushing the percentage of any one focus group lower as the population grows, the statistic may not be as surprising. Funny the way numbers work isn't it, basically the article says that even though more people move per year in the US today, the percentage of Americans moving every year is lower.

This statistic is very similiar to looking at unemployment statistics, for example, it is entirely possible to have a higher percentage of unemployment AND double the number of existing jobs when looking at say a thirty year period over which the population has almost doubled and people are working longer.

Have you read the book Freakonomics? It's a good one even if they bash real estate agents a little bit.

Thanks for the brain candy.

Dec 21, 2008 09:15 AM

Janna Scharf

Keller Williams Realty Coeur d'Alene - Coeur d'Alene, ID

Coeur d'Alene Idaho Real Estate Expert

My understanding of the NAR research is that the average homeowner moves every five to seven years. That has proven to be the case in my family for various reasons. Thanks for stopping by my blog, love your business plan! ;-P

Dec 21, 2008 04:33 PM

Betina Foreman

WJK Realty - Austin, TX

Realtor, C.N.E., with WJK REALTY

Dear Jim,

According to the Austin stats its more like the average homeowner moves every 3-5 years... Apartment dwellers move much more frequently. Sure some "special neighborhoods" are more of a tight-knit community & homeowners may remain until they die, so the 40 year number may be more accurate. I think the key term was "average".

Betina

PS. I read Freakenomics and actually liked it. I am in sales & can take a little bashing without crushing my spirit.

;)

Dec 22, 2008 03:14 PM

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