It's that time of year... looking back... was I right?

As the end of the year quickly approaches, it is time for me to look back and see how my predictions for 2008 came out...  Now, I did give the post a quick glane last night, but I have pretty much set it to the back of my mind since writing it...  I certainly didn't want to go back and edit the post... and I think it is pretty obvious that I didn't. 

And, I will be writing my predictions for 2009 in the next few days. 

So, on to the carnage predictions:

• 1.  Mortgage Rate Lower or Higher?  Both.  I think that rates will go down a little more for well-qualified buyers.  High credit scores will yield low rates.  But, those with lower scores will see rates a little higher than what they could find this year... if they can get a loan.

I think I did ok with this one.  I certainly hit the last part right... if they can get a loan.

• 2.  Credit Loosen or Tighten?  I think that it needs to be tighter than it has been over the last couple of years... and that will still be looser than it was a few years ago.  So, I guess I will say that credit will tighten a bit more. 

I thought credit would tighten a little more... that is an understatement.  It tightened a LOT.  There is still credit to be had, in fact there are lenders that would love to find buyers to loan money to.... but it is also tighter than it was last year... so I did ok on this one, too. 

• 3.  Number of Agents in Your Market Up or Down?  I think that there will be a 20% erosion in the number of agents in this market.  Active agents might even be more eroded than that.  And the 80/20 rule will still be in effect.

Well, I don't know if we have dropped 20%, but I know there has been a serious erosion in the number of agents... especially active agents.  A lot of agents that were active the last few years still have their licenses, but they have gone off of the active rolls. 

• 4.  Real Estate Inventory Levels in Your Market Increase, or Decrease?  I think the inventory will top out in the spring, and by the end of the year be slightly below this years levels.  

I hit this one faily well.  New Inventories actually mostly peaked in 2007 for Gwinnett County.  But, the listing inventories were high through around the end of May.  Comparing to 2007, we are going to close out 2008 down about 15% on inventory... still too high, but WAY better than 2007. 

• 5.  Better Real Estate Market or Worse?  Worse at the beginning of the year, flat by mid-year (compared to this year) and up by the end of the year.  It will come in slightly better than this year... or really close.

I was wrong...  The only thing I can say in my defense is that sales were WAY down in the spring, down by the middle of the year and only down a little by the end of the year (compared to 2007).  I expected the numbers to be better by about 20 points. 

• 6.  Buyer's Market or Seller's Market?  Most of the time it will be a buyer's market.  But, I think that when the recovery starts some of the pent up demand will push the market... or some sub-markets... to the seller's side of the market.

Pretty much blew this one, too.  At least for 2008.  We'll have to see for 2009. 

• 7.  More Foreclosures or Less?  I think that there needs to be more, but that they will top out around the end of the 1st quarter.  It will be a plateau until the end of the year.  Compared to this year there will be more.  

Aside from a bump at the end of the year, I am tracking fair on foreclosures v 2007.  I'll kick out my prediction for 2009 on this later. 

• 8.  Home Sales Prices Flat, Rise, or Fall?  Overall, I think they will be flat.  I'd like to see them fall just a bit to get buyers off of the sidelines, and they may do that... but overall I still think it will be flat. 

Should I say that I got my wish?  Prices fell in Gwinnett County.  Not as dramatically as in many places, but they weren't flat.  So, I'm wrongish...

• 9.  Condo Sales Prices Flat, Rise, or Fall?  The recovery for condos will be at least a few quarters behind the home recovery.  I think there will still be a drop because of the excess inventory.

I got this one. 

• 10.  Commercial Real Estate Stay Strong or Start to Soften?  I don't think start to soften will cover it.  I think that in Atlanta we are WAY over-built.  There are miles and miles of commercial footage sitting vacant... and no real slowdown in building.  Somebody is going to figure out that there isn't that much wrong with 20 year old buildings, and then the prices will have to adjust downward.  Since the supply is SO high, there is no way the demand can hold the line on prices. 

We are getting ready to see a HUGE problem in Commercial.  It has already started, so I got that one. 

I also had some bonus predictions.  I didn't do so good... 

• I said that the same party wouldn't control both houses of Congress AND the Presidency after the election...  I was WAY wrong. 
  
• I said that Global Temps had peaked.  This was actually cheating a littlem because that happened in 1934.  Even looking more recently, 1998... but that was still cooler than 1934.  Even more recently, 2006... but that was still cooler than 1998 and 1934.  2007 was warmer than 2008.  The current trend is cooling.
• I said I would finish my Jeepster... that was wishful thinking. 
  

All in all, on the ones that I was serious about I did 65%... (I'm giving myself half credit for one of the answers).  Better than most weathermen.