After 40 years in the real estate business I think I am in a position to share some of my beliefs as to what might happen in the Fredericton real estate market for 2009. As you can appreciate this is extremely subjective so I am even more excited to visit with you again on December 31,2009, just to see how we did. As I reflect on 2005. 2006, and 2007 it dumbfounds me to see the continued increase in gross yearly sales, year after year, when each year we waited for a free fall in both unit price and yearly dollar volume.

   Well, good things must come to an end as we see the market slowing and a slight 7% decrease in dollar volume for 2008. The good news is that Fredericton is a real estate haven where real estate sales go up very gradual and down very gradual. Thus for the most part we maintain a prosperity market. Whereby, homes keep their value with little fluctuation and buyers can still buy at a fair market value.

   So as we see the average volume for the past 4 years increasing at 9%/year, we can expect a gradual decrease at about 9%/yr. taking place over the next 4 years. Lets see how this will play out in 2009.

   Here are my PREDICTIONS for Fredericton for 2009. Let me know if you agree, disagree or have a totally different Crystal Ball?

       (1) Employment will remain strong in 2009 as Fredericton is in the process of building a new conference center,parking arcade, new ice area, new fire station, new school plus several private building projects.

       (2) Interest rates will remain at an all time low in the 4 to 5 per cent range.

       (3) Immigration will stay as strong as 2008 as more people are attracted to the city from the small villages in the province and abroad.

       (4) Independent Mortgage Brokers will flourish as conventional banks tighten up their lending practices. Banks really need to rewrite their mortgage lending practices They are driving their existing clients to Mortgage Brokers.

       (5) Appraisers will flourish as home values drop. More and more mortgagees will require an appraisal before agreeing with the real estate sale price. This will give them comfort for their exposed risk.

       (6) Smaller and more Conservative priced homes will sell much faster than big ticket homes.

       (7) Location, location, location will not be so much a factor to buying as most consumers will only be too happy to pay less for a home farther from city center, even with the expected high price of gas. This will be driven by the difficulty buyers will have in qualifying for a mortgage.

       (8) Listing porfolios will increase and sales will decrease proportionally at about 10% as there will be less buyers on the market throughout 2009.

       (9) Condo sales will remain strong as consumers will opt for condos over single family homes because the prices are lower and buyers will be able to qualify much easier. Especially, if gas prices becomes a factor in their buying psych.

      (10) Cottage sales will suffer as consumers look to conserve their disposable income, at least for 2009.

      (11) Commercial real estate will suffer as lending institutions will be reluctant to finance business buildings even more than in these past boom years.

      (12) Credit will be tight and financing will be the Realtors best worst nightmare all year long.

      (13) Builders will build as much as 40% less homes for 2009 as compared to 2008.

      (14) New construction in apartment buildings will be almost totally dead for 2009 as the supply has all but caught up to demand.

      (15) The number of real estate salespeople will start to dwindle as we enter 2009 as sales decrease dramatically, and even more as we begin the fourth quarter of 2009.