What a year!

As I do every year and every quarter I summarized the past year to see if there are any trends.  Often times my feeling of the market and the numbers line up, but sometimes they don't.  This year there were a couple of big surprises.  The markets that I will look at specifically are:

Upper Woodside (the skyline area)

Lower Woodside (everything else in Woodside.)

La Honda

Pescadero, Loma Mar, San Gregorio (lumped into one group)

Lower Woodside

The good news considering the market, is that the sales price and list price were actually almost exactly flat from last year.  This area has fared much better than most, however most of these sales were in the first half of the year.  The second half have been a bit slow.  Lets take a look at the solds vs canceled, withdrawn and expired.

From this graph you can see that the volume is down from last year by about 20 percent.  Sales are slowing but the price is staying put, which is great for you home owners in lower Woodside.  From my experience it seems the homes in the 2-4M range are the ones that are staying on the market a bit longer than the others.

Speaking of Days on Market, lets take a look at that stat.

The days on market are higher than they have been any year since 2000.  If you are trying to sell, you really need to reevaluate your price and marketing if you don't have an accepted offer in about 55 days. 

As you can see, the homes in lower Woodside are selling, but it has slowed, and is much more price sensetive than it has been in the last 8 years.

The Skyline Area of Woodside (upper Woodside). 

So first the good news.  As you can see since 2003 there has been a steady progression in the sales price for the Skyline area of Woodside.  This graph includes Skylonda which typically has higher sales prices than the rest of the Skyline area.  The median sales and ask price for 2008 was $1,588,000.  I read a couple of things from crunching this data and focusing on this ara that is not readily apparent from this graph.  Before I get to that, lets take a look at the other graph I have for you.

As you can see from this graph, the real concern in this area is the number of homes that were on the market that did not sell.  There were 12 sales and 40 homes that did not sell.  This happened a bit in 2006, but not nearly to the extent it happened this year.  This year the volume is down significantly.  If we look at the first graph compared to the second you will see the median price is up but the volume is low.  What the numbers don't tell you is that the homes that have been selling are usually on larger acreage.  In addition, the more expensive homes are also selling (although less so in the second half of the year than the first half).  So even though the median sales price is up, the homes that are in the 600-1.4m range have not seen their values increase.  Those are the homes that are sitting, and make up the vast majority of those 40 homes that were on the market but did not sell.

When we look at days on market for the solds, we are looking at about 60.  If you are selling your home and it hasn't sold in 60 days, its time to take a look at your marketing and your price.

One last thing to keep in mind.  When appraisers look at the solds vs canceled they are going to assume this is a declining market, but that the sellers have not realized it yet.  This will effect the value they place on your home.

La Honda

The La Honda area, like many of these areas is not an easy one for comps.  You have small cottages and large ranches, so the comp numbers are all over the place.  But like Skyline, the Solds vs Expireds, canceled and withdrawals are a better indicator.  First lets take a look at list vs sales price.

The list and sales median price is down this year.  The sales price falls to about 2003 levels, while the list prie is still around the 2005 mark.  The biggest difference is in the Days on Market.

As you can see, the days on market have gone up from about 20 to 90 days.  This is an indication that the buyers and sellers are not in sync on the pricing, and so buyers are holding off until the sellers price their properties more to where the buyers feel comfortable. 

Those numbers are clearly shown in the canceled, expireds and withdrawn vs the solds.  For the year there were 11 homes sold in La Honda this year (we were fortunate to sell about 1/3 of those) and 30 that did not sell. As you can see that is the largest delta we have seen since 2000.

San Gregorio, Pescadero and Loma Mar

The coastside had a very similar experience as La Honda, but the sales price was up.

The median sales price in San Gregorio, Pescadero and Loma Mar was up for the year.  This was mainly due to the fact that of the 6 properties sold, three were on over 20 acres, and two were between two and five acres.  Typically the larger acreage drives the price up.  As an example last year there were eleven transactions and only three were above 20 acres.  Lets take a look at the solds vs the canceled, expireds or withdrawn places.

AS you can see, there were six sales and ninteen that did not sell.  This again, is similar to La Honda in the amount of inventory that was on the market that did not sell.  Lastly lets take a look at the average days on market.

For days on market we are looking at just around 70.  This is pretty typical of the coastside.

Summary

So what are the takeaways from this?

Sellers

• This is not the go-go market that we experienced in the early 2000 but places are selling.
• In all the areas, if you DOM hits around sixty and nothing has happened, you need to re-address your price and marketing, or the odds are you are not going to sell your home.
• The higher end properties are still selling more so than the less than $1m market is, but pricing is important.
• Do not "Try the market" with the price you want.  Your home won't sell and the appraisers will look at the number of expireds or canceleds as a sign that the market is deteriorating.  Ultimately this will effect the price you can get for your home.  Even if you do get an offer at your price, if it is above market and a loan is involved, you will never get it financed.

Buyers

• The lending market is tight right now, and you are going to need 20-30% down, so make sure you have your lending ducks in a row.
  
• Work closely with your Realtor before you write an offer and ask them to do a Market Analysis to determine what the value is.  The number of listings that expired, canceled or were withdrawn in the area generally indicate that they were overpriced, so work with your Realtor to determine your value.
• Don't be afraid to write an offer!  It is my opinion that many of the sellers would like price X but would, in reality, take much lower, they just have never had an offer to work with.  When Karin or I represent you we will put together market case when we present your offer.  If we can show the sellers our price justification, oftentimes they will work with us.

Through all of this, my partner Karin Bird and I have had a great year.  In over half of our transactions we have represented the buyer and seller.  We have worked with our clients to set the appropriate expectations and price the properties correctly.  Thus, we are the leaders in volume for the areas we serve.  If either of us can be of assistance to you please feel free to contact us at:

Scott Hayes 650-641-2839 or Scott@BirdHayes.com

Karin Bird 650-851-8100 ext 302 or Karin@BirdHayes.com

www.BirdHayes.com

Scott Hayes and Karin Bird

Alain Pinel Realtors

2930 Woodside Road

Woodside, CA  94062